Barring a huge error in the polls, former President Trump will win Monday night's Iowa caucuses.
But the results will offer clues about whether Trump still has an iron grip on his party.
Will Trump win by an overwhelming margin, as the polls suggest? Or will he win by a tighter margin than expected and fall short of the high bar he has set for himself?
Who will come in second place? Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley are fighting for the silver medal. Whoever comes in second will get bragging rights (and attract more attention from journalists and donors) ahead of next week's New Hampshire primary.
DeSantis and Haley have argued that they are the true Republican alternative to the former president. A good performance here could strengthen one of his cases. On the contrary, a poor performance could force one or the other to end their offer. DeSantis, who has invested heavily in Iowa and has visited all 99 counties in the state, is especially at risk if he loses badly.
In a Des Moines Register poll released Saturday, Trump had the support of 48% of likely caucusgoers, while Haley had 20%, DeSantis 16% and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy 8%.
At one point, Republican leaders predicted that turnout at Monday's caucuses could surpass the record 187,000 people who participated in the 2016 Republican caucuses.
But extremely cold weather and the nearly two feet of snow that have blanketed the state could dampen turnout. Even in metropolitan areas like Des Moines, some roads remained icy Monday; Conditions are much worse in the more rural areas of the state. Monday's high is -2, and the temperature is expected to feel like -32 Monday night once wind chill is taken into account.
Republicans argued that Iowans are welcoming and know how to deal with the unprecedented caucus climate.
“This is really one of the worst we've ever had,” said former Gov. Terry Branstad, who also served six terms as Trump's ambassador to China. “But we have the equipment and they will clear the roads. “It’s going to be very cold, but Iowans know how to handle it.”
Unlike primaries, where voters vote throughout the day or even in advance, caucuses are held in person and at a set time. Iowans will gather at 7 p.m. in 1,657 precincts across the state, listen to speeches from the candidates' supporters, and then cast their votes for their choice.
(Democrats will not hold a caucus on Monday night after botching the process so badly in 2020 that no official winner was ever formally determined.)
The three leading Republican candidates have been setting expectations, and on Monday they tried to lower them.
Trump's good results in the polls and his boasts of his popularity in the state could harm him again if he does not exceed 50% in the caucuses.
On Sunday, the former president urged his voters not to be complacent and said he was concerned that “it's ugly out there.”
“You can't stay home,” he said in Indianola, jokingly adding, “If you're sick as a dog…even if you vote and then die, it's worth it.”
Iowa is the base of DeSantis' campaign, and his supporters have boasted a strong organization on the ground to entice voters to attend the caucuses.
He was defiant in the run-up to the polls.
“You can throw a blizzard at us and we're going to fight,” he told supporters in West Des Moines on Saturday. “They can throw wind chills at us and we are going to fight. They can throw media narratives at us and we will fight. “They can throw fake polls at us and we are going to fight.”
Haley's campaign is strongest in New Hampshire, but her numbers in Iowa have risen in recent polls. She lagged behind in building a ground game here, but she received backing from a group linked to the Koch brothers that claims to have a strong organization on the ground.
“[M]My expectation for myself is to come out strong in Iowa, come out strong in New Hampshire and come out strong in South Carolina,” Haley told Fox News after rallying supporters in Ankeny last week. “…we won't know what the fortress looks like until we see what the results are.”
