Independence candidate wins elections in Taiwan

Taiwan's ruling party won a third presidential term in Saturday's election, in a historic victory that heralds the continuation of a tense cross-Strait standoff between Beijing and the self-ruled island.

With 40.1% of the vote, incumbent Vice President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party defeated two candidates who favored closer ties with Beijing, indicating that for most voters, antipathy toward China It outweighed growing discontent over the economy and other internal issues. .

“They have just shown that it is possible to break the eight-year curse,” Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist at the Taiwan Studies Program at the Australian National University, said of the DPP's victory. “They can signal to Beijing that they have staying power.”

But despite the unprecedented third-term victory, analysts said the PDP failed to gain traction among voters outside its traditional support base. The opposition parties together accounted for 59.8% of the vote, and growing fatigue with the ruling party could pose additional challenges for Lai, who must demonstrate his ability to navigate both international and domestic grievances. The new president is also likely to experience headwinds from a divided legislative yuan, the 113-seat parliament, which will make it more difficult to advance his agenda.

“This is Lai's victory, but it is also a failure for the opposition,” said Lev Nachman, a political science professor at Taipei's National Chengchi University. “This is going to be a really tough administration. “Now they have to deal with a very divided society and a very divided legislative yuan.”

In his victory speech, Lai acknowledged that the DPP had lost its majority in the legislature and said he would study his opponents' policies and potentially incorporate them into his own.

“The elections have told us that people expect effective government, as well as strong checks and balances. We fully understand and respect these opinions of the public,” she said.

Lai also reiterated his intention to maintain the status quo with China and preserve peace in Taiwan.

“We will use exchanges to replace obstructions, dialogue to replace confrontation, and confidently pursue exchanges and cooperation with China,” he said.

Lai will take office at a very tense time for the United States, China and Taiwan. The self-governing island's sovereignty has become a flashpoint in the deteriorating relationship between the two superpowers, raising concerns about a potential military conflict that could quickly expand across the Asia-Pacific. That has made maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait, already a delicate balancing act, a more difficult task for the next administration in Taipei.

China considers Taiwan a part of its territory that must eventually be unified with the mainland, by force if necessary. Cross-Strait relations have become strained under Taiwan's eight years of outgoing presidency Tsai Ing-wen, who has taken a more confrontational stance toward Beijing while strengthening ties with other democracies, especially the United States.

Hou Yu-ih, the presidential candidate of the opposition Kuomintang, greets party supporters in New Taipei City.

(Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)

For its part, the United States has long adhered to a policy known as “strategic ambiguity.” It recognizes that China claims the island democracy of 23 million inhabitants, but does not support it. It also does not recognize Taiwan as a country, but Washington maintains government communications with Taipei and sells it defensive weapons. U.S. officials decline to explicitly state whether they would offer military assistance in the event of conflict, both to deter China from launching an attack and Taiwan from formally declaring its independence.

But in recent years, Beijing has accused the United States of moving away from that policy and quietly emboldening Taiwan to seek independence. When then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in August 2022, Chinese officials responded by launching military exercises of unprecedented scale across Taiwan and suspending imports of some fruits and fish. That military and economic pressure has continued with more naval and air patrols and the suspension of preferential tariffs on trade with Taiwan last month.

Analysts said they expect Beijing to express its displeasure with Lai's choice through further displays of military and economic power, raising the risk of an involuntary clash that could spiral out of control.

“Consider these pressure tactics, especially military provocations, as deterrence, showing them [that] if you make a wrong move, we will fight,” said Michael Cunningham, a researcher at the Heritage Foundation's Center for Asian Studies. “Beijing knows that it is not normal for the ruling party to stay in power for so long. An attempt will be made to ensure that Lai has only a four-year term.”

Although Lai was long the favorite, his lead in the polls narrowed considerably in the weeks leading up to the election. The DPP candidate campaigned confident that he would continue Tsai's track record of bolstering Taiwan's international ties and defense capabilities while maintaining the status quo.

However, Chinese officials have criticized the 64-year-old former doctor as a dangerous choice for president who could lead the island into war. Lai's choice of words to describe himself – as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence” – in 2017 has helped fuel that characterization, giving Beijing and opposition parties ammunition to label him a separatist who would provoke China's military wrath.

The Chinese Nationalist Party, better known as the Kuomintang or KMT, also framed the election as a choice between war and peace. His candidate, Hou Yu-ih, a 66-year-old former police chief and current mayor of New Taipei City, highlighted his dedication to “law and order” and said he would seek to improve relations with Beijing. but does not support unification.

The KMT, which fled mainland China after losing the Chinese civil war in 1949, has largely fallen out of favor with younger generations, most of whom now consider themselves more Taiwanese than Chinese. The island's oldest political party has struggled to attract young voters and shake its image as the pro-China option.

But there have been signs that voters are also unhappy with the ruling PDP and eager to express their discontent, especially over stagnating economic growth.

In 2022, the KMT won a wide range of victories in Taiwan's local elections, leading Tsai to resign as chairwoman of the DPP. A November survey by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation showed that 57.4% of respondents were dissatisfied with the DPP's governance, including its approach to cross-Strait relations and the economy.

That frustration fueled an unexpected first wave of support for Ko Wen-je as a third alternative, particularly among Taiwanese disenchanted with the two main political parties. The 64-year-old former trauma surgeon served two terms as mayor of Taipei before running for president this year for the Taiwan People's Party, which he founded. He attacked the DPP for being too confrontational with Beijing and the KMT for being too accommodating. However, his momentum waned after a failed attempt to form a joint ticket with Hou against the DPP.

Beijing's response to another DPP president will set the tone for its rocky relationship with the United States, which has seen a slight thaw since President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in November for their first meeting in a year. The two agreed to resume military talks that were suspended after Pelosi's trip to Taiwan. Biden reiterated that US policy on the island had not changed, while Xi reportedly assured Biden that he did not plan to exercise military force imminently.

“The momentum behind an improvement in US-China relations continues,” said Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at International Crisis Group. “That will encourage China to adopt slightly more discreet or ambiguous forms of pressure. But the pressure will definitely be there.”