London, United Kingdom – For long-time Labor Party activist Sophia Naqvi, the lightbulb moment came just days into the current Middle East crisis.
On October 11, four days after Hamas killed Israeli citizens and took many captive, Israel responded with an aggressive campaign of airstrikes and blockades. Labor leader Keir Starmer gave an interview to radio station LBC.
In it, he said that Israel had the “right” to cut off Gaza's electricity and water.
Labor later denied that Starmer had intended to support Israel by cutting off supplies to the territory, saying he was instead supporting Israel's right to defend itself.
But for Naqvi, and many others, the damage had already been done.
“For me, that party no longer represented me,” Naqvi told Al Jazeera.
“It's a matter of principles. In the 21st century, how can you say it's okay to cut off water, food, and electricity? He talks like that and he is supposed to be a human rights lawyer.”
Naqvi left the Labor Party.
It was not a decision he made lightly: he had been a member of the Labor Party for a decade. In her local area of Newham, east London, she had served as the party's women's leader.
His father and grandfather were also involved with the Labor Party. But it felt extremely clear.
“There comes a time when there are two paths. You can continue to be on the wrong side or you can leave.”
Twenty days after the interview, Starmer, as more Palestinians had been killed in Gaza, said it was not the time to call for a ceasefire, but demanded a pause in the fighting to allow aid to be sent to the besieged strip.
Next week, Starmer faces another major test when a second parliamentary motion calling for an immediate ceasefire will be carried.
In Newham, 32 per cent of residents are Muslim according to the latest census, making it one of the largest Muslim communities in the UK.
Its two Labor MPs enjoy large majorities and, until recently, all 60 seats on its local councils belonged to Labour.
Shortly after leaving the party, Naqvi stood as an independent candidate in the local council by-election and won the seat.
“As I was knocking on doors to campaign, people were saying: 'Labour? Leave.' I said 'I'm independent,'” she recalled. “I discovered that a lot of people had the same belief as me about what is happening in Gaza and they wanted to be represented.”
The Hamas-led attack on October 7 killed 1,1139 people. Israel's months-long assault on Gaza has killed at least 28,663 people and leveled much of the densely populated strip.
The Labor Party has traditionally enjoyed the support of the UK's Muslim communities, and constituencies with large Muslim populations are among the party's safest seats.
But with Labor refusing to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, there are signs this could be changing.
A snap poll by Savanta in November showed that 41 per cent of Muslim voters say they have more negative feelings towards the Labor Party since the conflict broke out.
A recent poll by Survation for the London Muslim Network found that only 60 per cent of Muslims who voted for Labor in the 2019 general election are willing to do so again in the election due this year.
The same poll found that 85 percent of British Muslims said the parties' political position on the Israel-Gaza war would influence their vote.
It is unclear what impact this will have at the polls, given Labour's dominant position in opinion polls generally.
“The wider Muslim community nationally tends to stick to the Labor Party and that is also the case locally in Newham,” said Tahir Talati, imam and volunteer at the Newham Muslim Forum.
“But there is a lot of anger within the community. Labour's position, its duplicity, Starmer's statements. “The party has not understood that the strength of feeling on this issue is not temporary.”
Disappointment with Labour's handling of the crisis in Gaza has exacerbated an existing trend.
In 2021, just a year into Starmer's leadership, a poll following a report on Islamophobia in the party found that 55 per cent of British Muslims did not “trust the Labor Party leadership to tackle Islamophobia effectively.” effective.”
For some Muslim voters, the party's refusal to take a clear stance on Gaza (at once calling for humanitarian aid and at the same time supporting Israel) compounds their feeling of not being heard.
“We don't seem to matter, as Labor think: 'Oh, Muslims are going to vote for us no matter what because they have nowhere else to go politically', and that's an excuse not to hear our voices,” he said. Ali Azhar, manager of a cafe in Stratford, one of Newham's main hubs.
He plans to abstain.
“I've always voted Labor but to be honest, at this rate, I won't bother voting at all.”
While this trend is unlikely to keep Labor out of power, there is some nervousness among individual Labor lawmakers who represent constituencies with large Muslim populations.
A website called theMuslimVote.co.uk suggests which candidates to support in different areas. He says he is “focused on seats where the Muslim vote can influence the outcome” and will not support anyone “who voted against or abstained from the ceasefire vote.”
It lists a variety of sponsors, including NGOs, community groups and Muslim-run businesses.
“It used to be the case that if you put a Labor symbol on a lamp post, people would vote for it, but that is changing,” Naqvi said. “The Labor Party used to be a party for social justice, a party of the working class, so we expect more from them than from the Conservatives.”
In Newham, Talati said the two Labor MPs have handled the issue very differently.
Stephen Timms has “been fantastic on this issue,” raising Gaza in parliament and communicating with his Muslim constituents.
By contrast, Lyn Brown, the other MP, would not have responded to a meeting request from Muslim community organisations.
“If it was under our control and we had a credible independent candidate, the community would vote for him,” Talati said.
“But it would require a massive, organized local campaign which I don't think anyone in Newham would feel like doing.”
What many Muslim voters seem to share is the feeling that they are not being heard by the party they have long supported.
“Nobody likes the Conservatives, but we're not going to vote for Keir Starmer,” Talati said.
“We know that he will most likely come to power, but he will not come to power thanks to our votes.”
