Beirut, Lebanon – Yemen's Houthis will not be deterred by US-led strikes against them in retaliation for their attacks on Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea and, in fact, could become even more emboldened, analysts say.
On Thursday night, the United States and the United Kingdom bombed multiple sites in Yemen that Washington said were Houthi installations, a day after they shot down missiles fired by the Yemeni group in the Red Sea. The bombings are the first time during this war that the United States or its allies have attacked Yemeni territory.
But the Houthis could benefit from a higher regional and national profile, as the world's only superpower takes on a group that is not internationally recognized like Yemen's government despite controlling large parts of the country, experts say.
On January 10, the United States and the United Kingdom repelled 21 drones and missiles in the Houthis' largest operation yet in the Red Sea traffic. And the United Nations Security Council, with the world's most powerful nations, focused on the attacks on Red Sea ships, in a resolution that condemned the Houthis but also underscored their growing influence as a force to be had. consider.
“The Houthis really won that confrontation the day they started it,” Abdulghani al-Iryani, senior researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies in Sanaa, told Al Jazeera.
Popular in Yemen
Inside Yemen, Ansar Allah, the formal name of the Houthi group, controls the west, including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait that flows into the Red Sea, and fights for territory against Yemen's internationally recognized government and its internal allies.
The group's actions in the Red Sea, along with its messages about supporting the people of Gaza, have been immensely popular among Yemenis, boosting recruitment and allowing it to mobilize mass demonstrations in support of the Palestinian people.
The Houthis say they are intercepting Israel-bound and Israeli-owned ships passing through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to pressure Israel to at least allow enough humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, which Israel has attacked. during the last three months.
The Israeli war on Gaza following the October 7 attack by Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups has killed more than 23,000 people, most of them civilians, some in direct shelling and others as a result of the terrible conditions in which has engulfed the enclave by Israel. behavior.
The Houthis attracted global attention on November 19, when they seized the cargo ship Galaxy Leader and subsequently turned it into a tourist attraction.
While global shipping has been deeply affected, with major shipping companies avoiding the Red Sea entirely, Houthi interceptions have caused minor damage to most ships and avoided killing or injuring anyone on board.
On December 31, four Houthi ships attempted to seize a ship sailing in the Red Sea when US Navy helicopters attacked them, killing 10 Houthi fighters and sinking three ships.
In early January, the Houthis began using unmanned surface ships. In the past, the group has used them as drone ships that explode upon impact with other vessels. Although the group has changed tactics, they have not ceased their activity in the Red Sea, on the one hand, according to analysts, because they have not achieved their stated objective and, on the other, because they do not fear American threats.
“The Red Sea front has entered the next level: the direct clash between the Houthis and the United States,” Eleonora Ardemagni, senior research associate at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, told Al Jazeera. “Both the United States and the Houthis are testing, respectively, the effects of their measures and how far they are willing to go.”
Airstrikes will not deter Houthis
Responding to an ultimatum from Washington and its allies to halt activity in the Red Sea or incur their military wrath last week, the Houthis held a huge rally in Yemen's capital Sana'a, where bombastic speeches by the group's leaders They declared themselves ready for an American escalation.
“Everything worth attacking has been attacked by the Saudi coalition in the last nine years,” al-Iryani said, referring to the war waged against the Houthis by a Saudi-led coalition that began fighting the Houthis in 2015 after they were overthrown. President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, head of the internationally recognized government.
“I don't think so [US attacks on Houthi targets] they are going to act as a deterrent for the Houthis,” Raiman al-Hamdani, a researcher at the ARK Group and former visiting member of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera. “Given the Houthis' rhetoric of always blaming the United States and Israel for the problems that exist in Yemen and the Middle East in general, I think they would be quite happy.”
Strategically speaking, al-Iryani said, the Houthis should also feel quite comfortable. The Houthi mobile infrastructure should make targeting more difficult for the Americans, he said.
Make peace with neighbors
Meanwhile, the Houthis are still in talks with neighboring Saudi Arabia over a long-term ceasefire and analysts say they may be trying to strengthen their position by flexing their muscles in the Red Sea.
The Saudis have been keen to avoid an escalation in Yemen, and in December Riyadh urged the United States to exercise restraint. Saudi Arabia doubled down on that message of caution after Thursday night's attacks on Yemen.
The instability of the neighboring country would not benefit Saudi Arabia, whose oil infrastructure has been severely affected in past Houthi attacks. The Saudis may also have longer-term considerations in these negotiations, in that they would benefit from establishing relations with the Houthis and could be on the path to recognizing them.
“Formal recognition may be the most important thing for [the Houthis]”said al-Hamdani. “The group's main concern is to continue consolidating its power over the country.”
To date, the Houthis have drawn support from Iran as part of their regional Axis of Resistance, along with Hamas, Hezbollah and a network of militias in Iraq and Syria. “The Houthis… have developed a relationship with Iran that many analysts consider to rival the one Iran has with Hezbollah,” Yemen researcher Nicholas Brumfield told Al Jazeera.
But analysts say the group should not be seen as a proxy for Iran, and in the future the Houthis could try to recalculate their regional alliances. “It's going to be better for them to be close to the Saudis,” al-Hamdani said, adding that they could benefit more by “relying on [Saudi Arabia’s] financial resources instead of depending on Iran for weapons.”
The Houthis' identity as a Shiite group does not mean they will fall under Iranian influence by default: the long historical and cultural ties between Yemen and Saudi Arabia may play a critical role between the two.
