Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied nations (OPEC+) are unlikely to make any changes to their oil production strategy when they discuss output at an online ministerial meeting on Sunday.
After years of slashing output to prop up prices, key members of the OPEC+ group, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, surprised markets earlier this year by raising output to levels that few had anticipated.
AFP Take a look at OPEC+ production policy in 2025 and what factors influenced the cartel's decisions:
How did OPEC+ production policy fare this year?
Since April, eight key OPEC+ (V8) members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, have increased production by around 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in total.
Faced with growing competition, particularly from producers in the United States, but also Canada, Brazil and Guyana, the group has focused on increasing production in a bid to regain a larger share of the oil market.
While OPEC+'s strategy has contributed to a supply glut that weighed on crude prices and effectively eroded some of the group's profits, experts say a combination of other factors offset them.
In recent months, the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, US sanctions on the Russian oil sector and China's buildup of strategic oil reserves have boosted oil demand, stemming a sharp decline in prices.
According to HSBC analyst Kim Fustier, “none of these (factors) could have been foreseen on January 1,” but thanks to them the OPEC+ production strategy “has generally worked.”
“You could argue that OPEC+ got a little lucky,” he said. AFP.
Did Trump's return to the White House influence the group's decisions?
According to Francis Perrin, who leads research at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), the return of Donald Trump as US president also influenced the series of OPEC+ production increases this year.
“The Trump factor is absolutely essential” to explain OPEC+ production increases, Perrin said. AFP.
Shortly after taking office in January, Trump asked Riyadh to increase production to reduce oil prices.
Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter and the most influential member of OPEC+, has made accommodation to American interests “an important asset” in its diplomacy with Washington, Perrin said.
Trump, in turn, also accepted several requests from Riyadh during a recent visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the United States.
For example, the two countries ratified a joint statement on civil nuclear energy and signed an agreement giving Saudi Arabia access to advanced artificial intelligence systems made in the United States, according to Washington.
The price of a barrel of Brent, the global benchmark for crude oil, is around $60-$65, which suits Trump, Perrin said.
While the price is relatively low, it is high enough for US producers to be profitable and maintain current production levels.
Why are there no more production increases in the first quarter?
Following a last quota increase in December, V8 already warned last month that there would be a pause in production adjustments in the first quarter of 2026, citing weaker seasonal demand.
That's why “we don't expect much to come out of this meeting” this time, Fustier said.
“OPEC+ will not want to preempt” any outcome of the ongoing negotiations on the war in Ukraine.
An easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war would reduce the geopolitical risk premium that is driving up crude prices, while a deadlock in negotiations would shift producers' focus back to U.S. sanctions against Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft.
