Iran and regional armed groups aligned with the country are preparing to respond to Israel for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr earlier this week.
Iran, which calls itself the “axis of resistance” because it disagrees with US and Israeli hegemony in the region, and its allies will seek to restore deterrence against Israel without provoking a full-blown regional war, analysts told Al Jazeera, although they cautioned that the margin for miscalculation is slim.
“One of the lines of argument in Iran right now is that they need to show a firm response and demonstrate their willingness to go to war to de-escalate the situation,” said Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert and nonresident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs think tank in Doha, Qatar.
“[Iran’s leaders think] “If they do not do so, Israel will not stop and after a while, it is possible that Israel will openly attack Iranian officials in the country,” he added.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said it was his country's “duty” to avenge Haniyeh after he was killed in the Iranian capital Tehran while attending the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian on July 30.
Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack. Iran says Israel is behind the killing.
Hours before Haniyeh's death, Israel claimed responsibility for firing a missile at a residential building in Dahiya, a bustling district of Beirut, Lebanon's capital.
The attack killed Shukr, along with a woman and two children, in response to a shell that killed 12 Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah denied taking responsibility for the incident, something reiterated by its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who said that a response was “inevitable” after the attack in Beirut.
“I think the overall strategic outlook remains the same in that Hezbollah does not want to escalate this into a massive war,” said Nicholas Blanford, a Hezbollah expert at the Atlantic Council, a think tank in Washington, D.C.
“It could be a phased operation with Iran taking the lead and then followed by [attacks from] other armed groups,” he added.
“I think they will target a high-profile military target.”
Battle of narratives
A New York Times investigation claimed Haniyeh was killed by an Israeli bomb planted about two months ago in anticipation of his visit.
Negar Mortazavi, an Iran expert and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy (CIP), argues that Israel's allies may push the narrative that the assassination was a clandestine killing, which Israel has carried out in the past against Iranian officials overseeing the country's nuclear program.
“Both sides have an interest in pushing a narrative,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera. “The Iranians want to present this as an attack on their sovereignty and Israel wants to say that this is just part of the ‘shadow war.’” [a term used to reference prior clandestine operations].”
Mortazavi also said he believes Israel is trying to provoke Iran into launching a major attack that would force the United States – which has signaled it does not want to be drawn into a regional war – to get involved directly on Israel's side.
He referred to Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria in April, which killed seven people, including two Iranian generals.
US officials said Israel “miscalculated” in attacking the embassy as it did not expect Iran to respond with such force, according to the New York Times.
On April 13, Iran retaliated by firing a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel after claiming it had given the United States and its allies ample warning.
“The United States [in April] “They basically made it clear to Israel that they will be there to defend them, but not to go on the offensive with them,” Mortazavi said, explaining why Israel did not escalate further after Iran’s missile and drone attack.
Azizi, the Iran expert, also said Iran viewed the embassy attack as an “Israeli miscalculation” but that Haniyeh’s killing was seen as a direct provocation.
“From what I can see, this time Iran might not give accurate advance warning to the US and its allies in the region. [about its next attack on Israel]“he told Al Jazeera.
“Iran believes that the previous format does not work to deter Israel.”
Higher stakes
Some analysts warn that a major attack by the “axis of resistance” risks killing Israeli military personnel or civilians, raising the spectre of a major regional conflict.
Mohanad Hage Ali, a Lebanon expert and senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, noted that Hezbollah has announced it will retaliate against Israel for the killing of Shukr and is likely to participate in a joint attack with Iran.
“There is definitely a wider margin when Hezbollah wants to respond beyond the comfort zone of the last 10 months, because if Hezbollah chooses to strike deep into Israeli territory then it entails a high risk of casualties,” he said.
Hage Ali also argues that Israel's disproportionate response to Hezbollah's previous attacks has brought the region closer to war.
On October 8, for example, Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli positions in the Shebaa Farms, Lebanese territory occupied by Israel.
The Israelis, Hage Ali said, responded by firing deep into Lebanese territory, setting off the current cycle of escalating violence.
Azizi acknowledges that the stakes are now much higher. He says that since Haniyeh’s death, Iran has openly talked about coordinating a response with its regional allies, giving up plausible deniability if Hezbollah or another member of the resistance axis kills Israelis in an attack.
“That would lead to a stronger Israeli response and then further retaliation.” [attacks] “This leads to war,” Hage Ali said.
