When Claudia Sheinbaum won the election in a landslide this month to become Mexico's next leader, many wondered how independent she would be from her mentor and predecessor, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
So far, the answer doesn't seem to be much.
This week, Sheinbaum supported one of López Obrador's most controversial proposals, a radical reform of the judicial system under which all federal judges, including members of the Supreme Court, would be elected by popular vote.
The plan, which critics say would politicize the judiciary and give even more power to the ruling Morena party, has spooked markets, with the peso recording its steepest weekly drop. against the dollar since 2020.
Mexico's president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum speaks at a press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City this week.
(Marco Ugarte / Associated Press)
López Obrador first proposed the reform in February, after several of his most sought-after initiatives, including a dramatic overhaul of the country's electoral body, were stalled by Supreme Court rulings. He mocked the judges of the country's highest court as part of a “power mafia” and said they and other members of the judiciary should be elected just like the president or senators.
For months, the plan seemed dead because his party did not have the necessary votes in Congress to make the necessary changes to the constitution.
That changed this month, when Morena's resounding victory in the national election was widely seen as a referendum on López Obrador's six-year rule.
Sheinbaum, a former Mexico City mayor and López Obrador's political protégé, beat her closest competitor by a 32-point margin. By the time she is sworn in as president on October 1, Morena's coalition will have a supermajority in the House of Representatives and a simple majority in the Senate. It will control 24 of 32 governorships and will have supermajorities in at least 21 of the 32 state legislatures. The new Congress will take office on September 1.
Outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced after the election that he would use his party's dominance in the new legislature to try to push through controversial judicial reform before leaving office.
(Marco Ugarte / Associated Press)
Despite his outgoing duck status, López Obrador announced shortly after the election that he would take advantage of Morena's dominance in the new legislature to try to push through judicial reform before leaving office. This resulted in the peso losing at least 8% of its value against the dollar.
Sheinbaum, in an effort to calm fears, said earlier in the week that he supported a series of public forums to debate reform. “Let there be a very broad discussion throughout the country,” he said.
But on Thursday he declared that the core of the proposal – that judges be elected by popular vote – would not change. “My opinion is that judges should be elected,” he said.
Carlos Bravo Regidor, a professor at the Center for Economic Research and Teaching in Mexico City, said the fact that López Obrador was still dictating the national conversation even though he is about to leave is an indicator of how he will remain involved.
“AMLO is giving signs that he is not really going to disappear,” he said.
Then-Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador greet supporters at a campaign event in the city's Zócalo five years ago. Many are concerned about how independent López Obrador's protégé will be as president.
(Fernando Llano/Associated Press)
Critics say the reforms would fundamentally alter the balance of power in Mexico by eliminating vital checks and balances.
An analysis of the reform carried out by the Inter-American Dialogue, the Rule of Law Impact Laboratory at Stanford Law School, and the Mexican Bar Association. concluded that the proposals, if approved, “would undermine the foundations of the rule of law in Mexico.”
“These proposals constitute a direct threat to judicial independence,” he said. “They violate international legal standards on the independence, impartiality and competence of the judiciary.”
In addition to changing the way judges are chosen, the reform would also reduce their terms, tie their salaries to those of the executive branch, and create a judicial disciplinary court whose members are elected by popular vote for terms that coincide with the six-year presidential term. years.
Most sitting judges, including those on the Supreme Court, would have to finish their terms when the newly elected judges were sworn in.
Javier Martín Reyes, a law professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, described the reform as López Obrador's effort to purge the judiciary of potential obstacles to Morena's initiatives.
“The only power that they do not control in Mexico is the judicial power,” he stated. “This is a weapon to capture this last institutional counterweight.”
Cecilia Sánchez Vidal in He The Times' Mexico City bureau contributed to this report.
