The world has lost more than $50 billion in unproduced crude oil since the war with Iran began nearly 50 days ago, and the aftershock of the crisis will be felt for months and even years, according to analysts and Reuters calculations.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was open following a ceasefire deal agreed in Lebanon, while US President Donald Trump said he believed a deal to end Iran's war would come “soon”, although the timing remains unclear.
Since the crisis began in late February, more than 500 million barrels of crude oil and condensate have been removed from the global market, according to Kpler data – the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.
In other words, 500 million barrels of oil lost in the market are equivalent to:
Reduce global aviation demand for 10 weeks; no vehicle will travel by road globally for 11 days; or lack of oil for the global economy for five days, said Iain Mowat, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Almost a month of oil demand in the United States, or more than a month of oil for all of Europe, according to Reuters estimates.
Approximately six years of fuel consumption for the US military, based on annual use of about 80 million barrels as of fiscal year 2021.
Enough fuel to run the international shipping industry for about four months.
Key facts:
Arab Gulf countries lost about 8 million barrels per day of crude oil production in March, almost equivalent to the combined output of Exxon Mobil and Chevron, two of the world's largest oil companies.
Jet fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman fell from around 19.6 million barrels in February to just 4.1 million barrels in March and April combined so far, according to Kpler data.
The loss of exports would have been enough for about 20,000 round-trip flights between New York's JFK airport and London's Heathrow airport, according to Reuters estimates.
With crude oil prices averaging around $100 a barrel since the conflict began, those missing volumes represent about $50 billion in lost revenue, said Johannes Rauball, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler. That amounts to a 1% cut in Germany's annual gross domestic product, or roughly the entire GDP of smaller countries like Latvia or Estonia.
Complete restoration could take years
Even as Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz was open, recovery in production and flows is expected to be slow.
Global onshore crude inventories have fallen by about 45 million barrels so far in April, according to Kpler. Since the end of March, production disruptions have reached approximately 12 million bpd.
Heavier crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq could take four to five months to return to normal operating levels, extending stock draws into the summer, Rauball said. Damage to refining capacity and Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex means full restoration of regional energy infrastructure could take years.
