Lahore, Pakistan – Four months after Pakistan was scheduled to hold national elections, the country's 128 million voters will have the chance on Thursday to choose their next federal government amid a pre-election crackdown on former Prime Minister Imran Khan's party and a climate of political and economic instability. .
More than 90,000 polling stations spread throughout the country of 241 million inhabitants will open at 08:00 local time (03:00 GMT).
In addition to the 266 seats in the country's National Assembly, voters will also elect members to the legislatures of Pakistan's four provinces. In the National Assembly, a party needs at least 134 seats to secure an absolute majority. But parties can also form a coalition to reach the threshold.
Voting will continue until 17:00 local time (12:00 GMT) and, if the tabulation of the results occurs smoothly, the winner could become clear within a few hours.
However, analysts are already warning that the real test of Pakistan's encounter with democracy will begin after the elections, when a new government will face a series of challenges and inherit doubts about its own legitimacy.
“While the election results may bring a sense of temporary stability, it is increasingly clear to both the public and party leaders that long-term sustainability can only be achieved when this cycle of political engineering is broken,” he said. analyst and columnist Danyal Adam Khan. , referring to a widespread feeling in Pakistan that the electoral process has been influenced by the country's powerful military establishment to deny Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party a fair chance.
Just a day before the elections, three bomb explosions, two in southwestern Balochistan and one in Karachi, Sindh, left more than 30 dead. Over the past year, more than 1,000 people have died in violence across the country. Despite assurances from the interim government, fears of internet shutdowns in some areas, as well as some violence on election day, remain.
And the economy is in the doldrums, with inflation around 30 percent, 40 percent of the population below the poverty line, a currency that is rapidly depreciating and almost three-quarters of the population convinced, according to recent surveys , that things could get better. worse.
Rotating tables
Many voters and experts have told Al Jazeera that those challenges have been compounded by attempts to subvert free and fair elections.
In Thursday's election, the main contender is three-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, called the “Lion of Punjab” by his supporters. If his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) wins the most seats, he could become prime minister for a record fourth time.
However, critics argue that his front-runner status is not due to an inspiring campaign, but rather to the machinations of Pakistan's most powerful entity: the military establishment.
Six years ago, Sharif found himself in the crosshairs, first disqualified from the premiership in 2017 and then jailed on corruption charges for 10 years in 2018, just two weeks before the election.
His dismissal and the fall of the PMLN were apparently orchestrated to pave the way for former cricketer and philanthropist Imran Khan's rise to power. While their initial honeymoon seemed promising, cracks emerged and, after almost four years, Khan became the first Pakistani prime minister deposed by a no-confidence vote, continuing a revealing trend in the country's 77-year history: no Prime Minister has completed his five-year term
Khan's relationship with the military reached its lowest point on May 9, 2023, when he was briefly arrested for corruption. Workers and supporters of his party rioted in response, attacking government and military facilities.
For a country with more than three decades of direct military rule, where the army as an institution is deeply woven into the social fabric, the state's response to Khan and the PTI was brutal. Thousands of party workers were arrested and key leaders were forced to resign. Khan himself faced more than 150 cases, many of them apparently frivolous. He was eventually jailed last August in a corruption case, leading to his disqualification from the election. Last week he received multiple convictions in different cases.
However, the biggest blow to the party ahead of the February 8 election came in January, when its iconic “cricket bat” election symbol was revoked for violating the party's internal election rules.
The decision meant that Khan and his party, arguably the most popular in the country according to opinion polls, had no choice but to field candidates as independents, each with their own symbol.
The PTI also denounces harassment and even kidnapping of its candidates, forcing them to interrupt their campaigns. The party has complained about restrictions imposed on demonstrations and media coverage of its plight. These accusations have led experts to consider this to be one of the most contaminated elections in the country's history.
Sharif's return in November last year coincided with his rival's imprisonment, and all his convictions and charges were dropped within weeks. The Supreme Court's ban on him from participating in the elections was lifted, paving the way for him to lead his party.
With Khan behind bars, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, son of former president Asif Ali Zardari and two-time former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, appears to be the second-strongest contender.
As a descendant of the Bhutto dynasty and leader of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), Bhutto-Zardari has campaigned across the country, although the PPP's main support remains primarily in Sindh.
'Mockery of democracy'
The crackdown on the PTI has raised questions about the legitimacy of the elections among many analysts.
Columnist Danyal Adam Khan said that while the political repression is unprecedented, what has happened before the polls is a “blatant mockery” of the democratic process.
“Despite the PTI's role in promoting a culture of vilifying political opponents, its success at the polls is a matter for the public to decide,” he told Al Jazeera.
Political analyst Benazir Shah acknowledged the history of rigging in Pakistan's elections, but said young voters – the country's largest demographic – had a chance to make their voices heard.
“Of Pakistan's 128 million voters, more than 45 percent are between the ages of 18 and 35. Historically, they have not contributed much in elections, but it is their time to shine and express their opinion,” he said.
Historically, Pakistan has had relatively low turnout at the polls, with only the previous two elections (in 2013 and 2018) seeing a turnout of more than 50 percent since 1985.
According to electoral statistics, from 1997 onwards, the electoral participation of those between 18 and 30 years old never exceeded 40 percent, reaching a high of 37 percent in 2018.
“Despite all the allegations of rigging ahead of the elections, I still expect a high voter turnout, where the youth will come and vote for the party of their choice,” said the Lahore-based Shah.
“Hope is a rare commodity”
Beyond concerns about political persecution, the dire economic situation looms large. Inflation and currency devaluation paint a gloomy picture.
The country was on the verge of default last year when, in June, then-Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif managed to secure a $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan package, which will expire in March.
Addressing the economy will be the primary responsibility of the next government, said former Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. And to achieve that, he said, the country's incoming leaders will need credibility.
“Pakistan is still suffering from the political and economic consequences of the rigged 2018 elections. [when Sharif was effectively forced out of contention]. However, any perception of manipulation in the 2024 elections will be very damaging to the economy,” he told Al Jazeera.
With the latest opinion polls predicting a PMLN victory, doubts have been raised over whether the February 9 results can bring any kind of stability to the country's volatile political landscape.
Danyal Adam Khan said he expects frustration and anger from those who feel disenfranchised, but warns against perpetuating a cycle of revenge.
Analyst Shah also expressed pessimism, fearing further social polarization if the PTI feels unfairly represented.
“I feel there will be more divisions in society if a political party and its voters [PTI] They will think they have been suppressed and feel that they were not given fair representation in the polls. This will be quite detrimental to the country in the long run,” he added.
Former Prime Minister Abbasi said he felt a lack of public interest in the elections, reflecting a lack of optimism.
It would be vital, he said, for Pakistan to develop clarity on the relationships between its political, judicial and military institutions.
“The post-election scenario will depend on the ability of the country's leaders to address all these issues,” said the former prime minister. “Hope for solutions is slim, so we can only hope that optimism prevails.”
