Beirut, Lebanon – When Israel attacked Lebanon in September 2024, Fatima Kandil left her home in the South Beirut suburbs, known colloquially as Dahiyeh. As the area supported on a large scale of Israeli air, many Lebanese fled Dahiyeh for other parts of the country or, such as Kandil, sought refuge in Iraq.
Almost seven months after the top of November between Israel and the Armed Group Hezbollah, an agreement that Lebanon says that Israel has repeatedly violated, the rockets are illuminating the night sky once more. But this time, Hezbollah is not involved. Instead, Israel and Iran exchange direct military attacks.
“We do not know how all this will end, so we are undoubtedly tense,” said Kandil, now in Lebanon, Al Jazeera. However, he added that he had a feeling of satisfaction to see missiles raining in Israel. “Our revenge is being taken,” he said.
While Kandil's feeling is shared by some in Lebanon, others, those who see the support of Iran to Hezbollah, a group that has dominated the military and politically and politically Lebanon for two decades, as nefarious, the Israeli attacks against Iran cheered. Many people in Lebanon told Al Jazeera that they expected stability to prevail and that their country was not dragged back to a prolonged conflict or subject to the ferocity and frequency of the Israeli attacks that it suffered last year.
“People are taking precautions,” said Karim Safieddine, a Lebanese writer and political academic, Al Jazeera. “Some are preparing their bags.”
Without intervention … still
On early Friday, Israel hit Iran and murdered several main commanders in the body of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) along with the main nuclear scientists. Numerous civilians were also killed, including children, according to Iranian state media.
Hours later, Hezbollah issued a statement condemning Israeli attacks and offering condolences to the Iranian officers killed. But analysts say that the statement was a clear sign that Hezbollah would not enter the battle in support of Iran.
“Currently, there is no need for Hezbollah to intervene, since Iranian missiles are able to face Israeli occupation,” said Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst who supports the group. “However, if the situation becomes a large -scale war, nothing prevents the situation from changing.”
Hezbollah, founded in the middle of the Lebanese civil war in 1982 with Iranian support and financing, attracts much of his support from the Shiite Muslim community of Lebanon. The group began firing rockets to Israel on October 8, 2023, after the beginning of the Israel War in Gaza.
Israeli attacks in Lebanon between October 2023 and November 2024 were largely directed to the areas where Shiite live, killing around 4,000 civilians and combatants, according to the Ministry of Public Health of Lebanon.
Many Lebanese are still recovering from the damage left by Israel's attacks. Some remain displaced from their villages in the south of Lebanon, which was razed. Hezbollah's priority is to ensure that houses and cities are built in the area.
While Israel is still reaching objectives throughout the country, mainly in the south of Lebanon, but occasionally in the suburbs of Beirut, any resumption of military activity by Hezbollah would probably attract an even more intense Israeli response and would further interrupt reconstruction efforts.
According to reports, much of Hezbollah's military arsenal was destroyed during Israeli attacks, although analysts believe they have preserved some arms, including ballistic missiles.
Even so, Hezbollah's lack of intervention in the current Israel-Iran conflict is “evidence of his lack of capacity,” said Safieddine. Hezbollah may not have the means to intervene militarily.
The Israeli campaign in Lebanon also left Hezbollah's political leadership. Many of the most important military figures in the group, including lifelong leader Hassan Nasrallah, were killed. The group's political hegemony is now being challenged by the Lebanese state, with pressure from the United States and Israel, as it advances to disarm Hezbollah and cause the use of force under the exclusive authority of the State.
For now, analysts believe that there is a consensus and understanding between Tehran and Hezbollah that the group will not intervene.
“Domestic political circumstances make it extremely difficult for Hezbollah to join Iranian reprisals,” Nicholas Blanford, a non -resident member of the group of experts based in the United States Atlantic Council. “And the Iranians recognize that they can't call them.”
The battle inside
While Hezbollah is sometimes known as an Iranian power, many experts say that the group is described more precision as a nearby IRGC ally and the Iranian government with shared interests and a similar ideology.
During the strong bombing of Israel of Lebanon between September and November 2024, Iran's intervention was relatively limited. Israel invaded the south of Lebanon, and although Israeli troops have retired from most of the Lebanese territory that entered during the war, they still occupy five points.
“There is resentment and unhappiness towards Iran by Hezbollah because they feel they will be disappointed in the recent conflict,” said Blanford. According to reports, Iran asked Hezbollah not to use some of his most lethal weapons, than analysts linked to the fears of an Israeli response in the Iranian territory.
As for Israel's attacks against Iran, there are no indications that Tehran has asked Hezbollah to be involved, according to Kassir, the analyst who is believed to be close to Hezbollah. But that could change if a prolonged war attracts actors throughout the region.
Blanford said he does not expect to “see Hezbollah to join on a large scale,” but said that if Israel begins to fight in his fight against Iran, he could lead to “some activity along the blue line”, the line that crosses the southern border of Lebanon. If that happens, said Blanford, Hezbollah can seek to perform operations in the areas occupied by Israeli of Lebanon.
Israel's plans for Lebanon and Hezbollah are still not clear, but the sound of Israeli drones, a buzz always present during the most severe days of war, has returned to Beirut's heavens in recent days.
“I would not rule out [Hezbollah’s intervention] completely, “said Blanford.” But for now, it seems that they will stop outside and watch the eagle of what is happening. “
