New Hampshire voters went to the polls this week, more than a month before most voters would have a chance to weigh in on the presidential nominations. They were preceded only by the small number of Iowans who braved subfreezing temperatures last week to participate in the nation's first Republican caucuses.
However, it seems that we are still on a collision course with a rematch between Biden and Trump that nobody wants. But we shouldn't blame Iowa and New Hampshire for that.
Voters in these early states, along with political elites fighting to protect their privileges, tend to take their role very seriously and believe they are uniquely equipped to evaluate candidates. They have been called “presidential wine tasters“Who may not make a decision until they shake hands with all the applicants. Since then Jimmy Carter won the 1976 Iowa caucuses and was catapulted to the nomination by momentum – what George HW Bush called “great month” – early state voters have been widely regarded as kingmakers.
The reality, however, is not so simple. Donald Trump is the first non-incumbent Republican to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in the modern era. On the Democratic side, since Carter, only Al Gore and John Kerry have both won. Furthermore, winning in any state is It is rarely associated with winning the presidency the following November..
The presidential nomination process was revised after the 1968 elections with the intention of wresting power from the party elites and handing it over to the voters. The resulting system is federalist: national parties establish guidelines and state parties structure their contests within those limits. Most states are allowed to hold primaries and caucuses between early March and mid-June, but some are granted waivers to hold earlier contests.
In 2008, Nevada and South Carolina They were added to early races in predominantly white and rural Iowa and New Hampshire to increase diversity. The Democratic Party sought to bring even more diversity to the forefront with additional changes this year.
That further complicated the nomination process. Some states are now holding separate Democratic and Republican primaries and caucuses (Michigan, Nevada); others so desperately wanted an early contest that they scheduled it in violation of national party rules (New Hampshire). States often fight for early primaries because they attract enormous attention from candidates and the media.
But Iowa, New Hampshire and other early states don't elect presidents so much as help narrow the odds. At one point, more than one dozen Republican contenders They were seeking this year's nomination. Two weeks after the vote, only two remain. Candidates often withdraw early, sometimes before voting takes place, so as not to be seen as damaged goods, not to waste valuable resources, and to preserve their political future. Such calculations certainly influenced Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' decision to withdraw days after Iowa.
Trump has only 32 of the 1,125 delegates needed to win the nomination; her former ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, is only 15 delegates behind and has He vowed to stay in the race. until his home state, South Carolina, votes in about a month. However, it seems likely that there will be a presumptive nominee when the rest of us have a chance to weigh in.
While some nomination races, such as the 2008 battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, lasted the entire calendar, other competitive races were decided quickly. In 2000, George W. Bush and Gore became the presumptive nominees after just 45 days, before half the states had held their races.
Although early states don't decide, they can help shape the career trajectory. They have given candidates second chances, as happened with Bill Clinton in 1992; slowed down apparent coronations, as John McCain and Bernie Sanders did against Bush and Hillary Clinton in 2000 and 2016, respectively; or effectively sealed the deal, as appears to be the case with Trump this year.
But early contests do not clear the field or shape our decisions on their own. Although parties have less power than 60 years ago, party elites still influence nominations through endorsements in the “invisible primary” stage, before voting begins. This year, for example, the vast majority of the republican elites who have made endorsements They have supported Trump.
Focusing on the early states can blur the bigger picture. Triumph and Biden led the polls for most or all of the invisible primary period, frequently by more than 50 points. Both solidified the support of party elites and dominated support from the beginning. Iowa and New Hampshire only confirmed what has been pretty clear for more than a year: Another Trump-Biden race is likely to happen in 2024, whether we want it or not.
Caitlin E. Jewitt is an associate professor of political science at Virginia Tech and author of “The Primary Rules: Parties, Voters, and Presidential Nominations.” Gregory Shufeldt is an associate professor of political science at the University of Indianapolis and former Public Voices Fellow of the OpEd Project.
