On Monday, two days after Israel blamed Lebanese Hezbollah for an attack that killed 12 people in the occupied Golan Heights, White House official John Kirby reiterated U.S. support for Israel but stressed that Washington still wanted a regional de-escalation.
“We believe there is still time and space for a diplomatic solution,” Kirby said, as he pondered what Israel's next move would be and whether it would trigger a long-feared all-out regional war.
The United States has publicly stated that it does not want such an eventuality, although it sent forces to the Middle East following the October 7 attack on Israel and the start of the war in Gaza, in a show of support for Tel Aviv.
Since then, the Middle East and the world at large have held their breath on several occasions, most notably when Israel killed two Iranian generals in Tehran's consulate in Damascus in April, followed by a telegraphed Iranian attack on Israel.
At the time, reports indicated that the United States had worked to prevent Israel from escalating its attacks and also to prevent Israel from launching a large-scale attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, the United States has been one of the countries that has mediated a possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, although it seems to have encountered several obstacles in recent months.
Now, after the brazen assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran (which the Palestinian group and Iran blame on Israel) and the killing of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, all within hours, the US’s twin goals of a ceasefire and regional de-escalation appear to be shattered.
Brian Finucane, senior adviser to the International Crisis Group's US Programme, told Al Jazeera that regional de-escalation would eventually emerge after a ceasefire in Gaza and that without it, the possibility of an expanded conflict drawing in US forces stationed in the region was always present.
“If further escalation in the region is to be avoided, including an escalation involving US troops, it will be necessary to secure a ceasefire in Gaza. That is what is needed to calm things down with the Houthis.” [in Yemen]with Hezbollah, and continue the pause in attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq,” Finucane said.
But with the recent attacks, Finucane believes the current prospects for a US-brokered ceasefire have been complicated, if not derailed, in the short term.
Could the United States do more?
But many believe the United States can do more to try to broker a ceasefire in a conflict in which its ally Israel has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians, threatening to ignite an already volatile region.
“We haven’t really seen the US push for de-escalation; US policy contradicts its actions,” said Raed Jarrar, advocacy director at Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), a think tank in Washington, D.C. “The US could have easily implemented these kinds of de-escalation and ceasefire principles if it had stopped the arms transfer, which would have led to a ceasefire months ago.”
“Israel could not have attacked all these countries without American weapons, without American political support, without American military support and without the support of American intelligence services,” Jarrar added. “Israel would not have the ability to bring the region to what we have now, which is a regional war.”
Following Haniyeh's killing, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. government was “not aware of or involved” in the killing, which came days after Netanyahu visited the United States.
“It's very difficult to speculate, and I've learned over many years never to speculate about the impact that one event might have on something else. So I can't tell you what this means,” Blinken said when asked to give his assessment of what might happen next.
“[That] “That may very well be true,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a US foreign policy think tank. “But in the region, the perception is probably not that, and that will be reinforced by the fact that just two days ago, the head of the Mossad was negotiating with the head of the CIA for ceasefire talks.”
US Leadership
And if the US had no advance knowledge of the attack, what does that mean for American leadership in the region and Israel's apparent disregard for the aforementioned US goals of a ceasefire and avoiding a regional war?
“This certainly does not suggest that Israel views the United States as a leader in the region, or that Israel is following the United States' lead,” Finucane said.
He added that the United States faces a “fundamental conundrum” in that it has backed Israel with military power and support to deter Iran and its allies, “but at the same time wanted to avoid a regional escalation.”
“The United States needs to fundamentally rethink what it is going to do to achieve a ceasefire – what it is going to do to de-escalate the situation in the region beyond just rhetoric,” Finucane said.
The United States is heading into a tumultuous few months as it prepares for a presidential election that will see a transition to a new president, whoever wins, after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
Uncertainty about what lies ahead in the United States suits Netanyahu well, analysts said, ahead of a possible Kamala Harris presidency that could put more pressure on the Israeli prime minister to end the war.
“Netanyahu is betting on his ability to corner the United States and essentially forcing his political leadership to constantly be in a position of embracing Netanyahu and protecting and defending everything Israel does by claiming it is in self-defense,” Parsi said.
That would mean a continuation of U.S. policies that many in the Middle East blame for the unrest and violence that have ravaged the region in recent decades.
“Since October 7, America’s blind support for Israel has definitely affected America’s position in the region and its ability to influence. The US has completely failed to show any kind of leadership,” DAWN’s Jarrar said.[But] The United States has [already] “Iraq has lost its political capital in the region over the years and has been declining since the Iraq war.”
