With polls showing Nikki Haley trailing Donald Trump by a wide margin heading into this weekend's South Carolina Republican primary, many political analysts are characterizing the vote as Haley's last stand in her quixotic bid for win the party's presidential nomination in 2024.
Regardless of the outcome, however, scholars have called Haley's campaign historic. By distancing herself from a male-dominated field to effectively challenge the immensely popular Trump, she has brought women one step closer to political parity in electoral politics.
Polls indicate Trump leads Haley by as much as 36 percentage points heading into Saturday's primary in South Carolina, even though Haley is a native and former governor of the Palmetto State. And while winning the South Carolina primary would open the door for Trump to capture the party's nomination when 15 states hold their primaries simultaneously next month, Haley's campaign, at least in theory, has charted a path to staying in the race. until Super Tuesday. which could give the former United Nations ambassador an advantage in the 2028 presidential election.
Haley, for her part, has vowed to stay in the race despite the adversity. Speaking at her alma mater, Clemson University, on Tuesday, she said: “Some of you, maybe some of you in the media, came here today to see if I dropped out,” she said. “Well, I'm not. Far away.”
Haley's emergence as the last woman standing in what was a crowded race stands in stark contrast to candidates like former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who called themselves “anti-Trump” candidates. By contrast, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis moved closer to Trump in both style and substance before bowing out in January after failing to distinguish himself from the front-runner and presumptive nominee.
Haley, on the other hand, has chosen a middle ground, presenting herself as an aspiring “accountant” in the White House and, consequently, a reassuring alternative to Trump’s four years of “chaos.”
Initially circumspect in her criticism, Haley has turned up the heat as the Republican field has narrowed, attacking Trump's efforts to insert loyal supporters into the Republican National Convention, highlighting his growing pile of legal problems and taking aim more directly at the ” Trump's insecurity and tantrum.
Her policy proposals, however, are not substantially different from those of her former boss, and as recently as this month, Haley told reporters in South Carolina that her campaign is not an “anti-Trump movement,” according to the Washington Post .
Part of Haley's strategy is to walk a tightrope when it comes to addressing her gender and Indian ancestry in a modern Republican Party that is slow to change, Kelly Dittmar, research director at the Center for American Women and Politics, told Al. Rutgers University. Jazeera.
For example, Dittmar said Haley has, in many ways, leaned into her role as the odd woman in a Republican presidential race, but hasn't necessarily portrayed gender as a “matter of merit,” underscoring the conservative “idea” that Somehow hearing about gender and racial identity is anti-meritocratic… and [Republicans] “Don’t play with identity politics.”
“If you go back to Hillary Clinton in 2016, she used to say, 'I'm not asking you to vote for me because I'm a woman, I'm asking you to vote for me on the merits.' But one of those merits is that I am a woman,'” Dittmar said.
Instead, Haley has used gender imagery to push “masculine credentials” and an image of masculine toughness that still resonates in the party, repeatedly referring to her high-heeled shoes as “ammunition.” In her campaign launch ad, she proclaimed, “When you relax, it hurts more if you're wearing heels.”
Furthermore, on matters of race, Haley has veered to the right, in line with Trump's own views, generating controversy by not citing slavery as one of the reasons for the American Civil War. And she has repeated a standard Republican line, most recently in a late January interview. “I don't think America is racist,” she said. “I think we have racism in America.”
A historical reference
In turn, Trump's attacks on Haley suggest that there remains a tolerance — if not appetite — for racism and sexism among his supporters, Dittmar said. In January, Trump referred to Haley as “dumb” and “not presidential material.”
Trump has amplified the conspiracy that Haley, who is of Indian descent, was not born in the United States, reminiscent of a tactic known as “birtherism” that he advocated during Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign, falsely claiming that the first president The nation's African American was born in Kenya and was therefore ineligible to run for president.
The former president has also referred to Haley as “Nimbra,” an apparent downgrade of her first name, Nimarata (Nikki, the name she uses, is her middle name).
Many have said Trump's comments are not surprising for a candidate who had previously bragged about sexually assaulting women, mocked his 2016 Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, calling her a “nasty woman” who did not look presidential, and suggested in 2015 that a debate moderator had “blood comes out of whatever it is.”
While these attacks have come to be seen as an integral part of Trump's campaign, Dittmar noted that studies have regularly indicated high levels of “hostile sexism” and “racial resentment” among his supporters.
“It's not surprising that Trump uses sexist or racist language or strategies, because that has actually been beneficial for him in mobilizing many of these voters,” Dittmar told Al Jazeera. “[Nikki Haley] he brings that out, but perhaps in his favor, at least among his base.”
Haley has fought back, launching the National Women for Nikki Coalition, a 50-state effort that many see as a last-ditch effort to energize the voting bloc.
And while it may ultimately be a matter of too little, too late, Haley's staying power in the race represents a historic benchmark for a political party that has traditionally been dominated by white men. And voters, donors and the media alike seem to hold her in much higher esteem than Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor and self-proclaimed “hockey mom,” who was often ridiculed by comedians and late-night talk show hosts.
“It's notable to recognize and give credit to Haley for going beyond the Republican side to at least have one candidate taken more seriously as a potential candidate,” Dittmar said.
“In the modern context, she will have come further than any other Republican woman, and I think that's something worth noting, regardless of what happens.”
Electoral vulnerabilities
While a resounding defeat in South Carolina appears likely, Haley's career has, at the very least, taken the temperature of the modern Republican Party and the existential crisis represented by Trump's enduring dominance, according to political observers.
Perhaps most illuminating during Haley's career has been how difficult it has been for Haley – or any of the now-deceased Republican candidates – to find any support in attacks against Trump, an unorthodox politician who has continued to polarize members of the party.
In 2020, an anti-Trump movement largely coalesced under the “Never Trump” slogan. While that effort has been less vocal this election cycle, there is a “minority, but significant class of disaffected Republican voters still looking for an alternative to Trump,” according to Aaron Kall, an elections expert at the University of Michigan.
“It shows that if Trump is the nominee, which is still likely, he has some vulnerabilities in the general election,” he said.
He pointed to several prominent donors who have continued to provide the funds Haley needs to stay in the race, many of them coming from the GOP's more traditional conservative old guard. Haley's campaign said it raised $16.5 million in January, nearly a third of the $42 million in campaign cash raised by Trump last month, which Haley described as his biggest monthly haul since entering office. career.
Before the South Carolina primary, Haley also attended a fundraiser in Texas co-hosted by real estate magnate Harlan Crow and oil magnate Ray Lee Hunt, among others, according to Fortune magazine.
Durable grip
Some have seen Haley's persistence as an effort to position herself as Trump's natural successor should he fail to be the party's nominee.
Trump is the first candidate in US history to face one criminal charge – let alone four – during his campaign, creating an unprecedented situation that could put the former president behind bars in November, raising the question of his eligibility. .
“We have empirical evidence that shows that MAGA [Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement] it has been decreasing in size, not growing in influence in the party,” Rina Shah, a political strategist, told Al Jazeera.
He pointed to the 2022 midterm elections in which Trump-backed candidates underperformed, resulting in an expected red wave that turned into a shock wave.
Shah said he believes Haley's losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, and recent polls, have not reflected the extent to which Trump has alienated some segments of the Republican Party, particularly suburban women.
“The 2024 general elections will be determined by independent-minded voters in swing states,” Shah told Al Al Jazeera. “I think Trump can’t bring them into this election because he lost them in a big way in 2020.”
Still, the former president has demonstrated an ability to mobilize his enthusiastic base, something his Democratic opponent, President Joe Biden, has failed to do so far this election season. The irony, Shah said, is that while Haley's campaign has raised the bar for women running for high political office, she has paradoxically proven that Trump is a political giant.
Even when Trump is “barely campaigning, when he's facing all these legal challenges,” Shah noted that “his base's loyalty to him is much deeper than we've seen with other candidates.”
In short, Haley's campaign has shown that the Republican Party “is still a cult of personality,” for Trump.
