Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance is expected to win a commanding majority in the general election, according to television exit polls, suggesting the right-wing party would fare better than expected by most analysts.
Most exit polls on Saturday projected that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could win a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house of parliament, where 272 are needed for a simple majority.
A summary of six exit polls projected the NDA could win between 355 and 380 seats, a figure that is likely to boost financial markets when they reopen on Monday.
The NDA won 353 seats in the 2019 general elections, of which the BJP accounted for 303.
The six exit polls that gave the BJP-led NDA a clear majority are: Republic Bharat-P Marq (359), India News-D-Dyanamics (371), Republic Bharat-Matrize (353-368) Dainik Bhaskar (281-350), News Nation (342-378) and Jan Ki Baat (362-392), according to a report by the Indian network NDTV.
Another exit poll by broadcaster CNN-News18 predicted that the BJP and its coalition allies would win 355 seats.
The opposition INDIA alliance, led by Rahul Gandhi's Congress Party, was projected to win more than 120 seats, according to polls released after six weeks of voting concluded on Saturday.
Exit polls, conducted by polling agencies, have a spotty track record in India, often returning incorrect results, and analysts say they are challenging to get right in a large, diverse country.
The opposition dismissed the exit polls as “pre-fixed” before their release after a meeting at Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge's residence in New Delhi earlier on Saturday.
Most opposition parties accuse India's major news channels of being biased in favor of Modi, accusations the channels have denied. They also say that exit polls in India are mostly unscientific.
“This is a government exit poll, this is Narendra Modi's exit poll,” Congress social media officer Supriya Shrinate told news agency ANI. “We have an idea of how many seats we are winning.”
Sanjay Singh of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which rules the national capital territory of Delhi, told the Press Trust of India that the exit polls are “the government's and the BJP's”.
“Exit polls always show the BJP winning. At the Board [of INDIA bloc]”The leaders have said that 295 seats will come to the INDIA alliance and we will form a government,” he said.
🇮🇳 ✌️ pic.twitter.com/CXMHl4t66Z
— Congress (@INCIndia) June 1, 2024
Nearly a billion people were eligible to vote in the seven-phase elections that began April 19 and were held in many parts under scorching summer heat.
The Electoral Commission will count the votes on June 4 and the results are expected the same day.
In his first comments after voting ended, Modi claimed victory without reference to exit polls.
“I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government,” he said in X, without providing evidence for his claim. “The opportunistic INDI Alliance failed to strike a chord with voters. They are casteist, communal and corrupt.”
A victory for Modi, 73, will make him the second prime minister, after independence leader Jawaharlal Nehru, to win three consecutive terms.
Many in the prime minister's Varanasi constituency, which went to the polls on Saturday, said they were excited by the prospect of his return to power.
“I voted for the growth and development of my country,” Varanasi resident Brijesh Taksali told the AFP news agency outside a polling station. “I only know one leader…Narendra Modi. “I voted for him.”
Varanasi is an important temple city of the Hindu faith, where devotees from all over India come to cremate their deceased loved ones along the Ganges River.
But Janesar Akhtar, a Muslim garment maker who works in Varanasi's famous embroidery workshops, said the BJP's sectarian campaign was an unfortunate distraction from India's chronic unemployment problems.
“Workshops here are closing and the Modi government has been busy with temple and mosque politics,” the 44-year-old said. “It's supposed to give us jobs and not stress.”
