Paris: Scientists estimated on Wednesday that the increase in temperatures of climate change caused by humans was responsible for approximately 16,500 deaths in European cities this summer, using modeling to project the toll before official data is published.
The study produced quickly is the last effort of climatic and health researchers to quickly link the death toll during the heat waves to global warming, without waiting for months or years that will be published in a magazine reviewed by peers.
The estimated deaths were not registered in European cities, but were a projection based on methods such as modeling used in studies previously reviewed by peers.
It is believed that death tolls during heat waves are greatly underestimated because the causes of death recorded in hospitals are normally heart, breathing or other health problems that particularly affect the elderly when mercury rises.
To obtain a snapshot of this summer, a team of researchers based in the United Kingdom used climate modeling to estimate that global warming caused temperatures to be an average of 2.2 degrees Celsius warmer in 854 European cities between June and August.
Using historical data that indicate how such high temperatures increase mortality rates, the team estimated that there were around 24,400 deaths in excess in those cities during that time.
Then they compared this number with how many people would have died in a world that was not 1.3 ° C warmer due to the climate change caused by humans that burn fossil fuels.
According to the fast attribution study, almost 70% – 16,500 – of the excess of estimated death were due to global warming.
This means that climate change could have tripled the amount of heat deaths this summer, said the study of scientists of Imperial College London and epidemiologists of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
The team had previously used similar methods to find a similar result for a single European heat wave that began at the end of June.
The researchers said they could not compare their estimates with the real deaths recorded in European cities this summer because most countries take a long time to publish those data.
“It is impossible to obtain real -time statistics at this time,” however, the estimates are “in the right stadium,” said Co -author of the Friederike Otto study to a press conference.
'Even more alarming'
Estimates reflected prior investigation reviewed by peers, such as a nature medicine study, which determined that there were more than 47,000 deaths related to heat during the European summer of 2023.
Numerous prominent climate and health researchers also supported the study.
“What makes this finding even more alarming is that the methods used in these attribution studies are scientifically robust, but conservative,” said atmospheric science researcher Akshay Deoras at the United Kingdom Reading University.
“The real number of deaths could be even higher.”
The study said that Rome had the most estimated deaths attributed to climate change, with 835, followed by Athens with 630 and Paris with 409.
More than 85% of estimated excess deaths were among people 65 years or older.
The researchers emphasized that the study did not represent Europe as a whole because some areas, such as Balkans, were not included.
“An increase in the temperature of the heat wave of only 2-4C can be the difference between life and death for thousands of people; that is why heat waves are known as silent murderers,” said study co-author Garyfallos Konstantinoudaudis.
This year was the fourth most careful summer in registered Europe.
