How important will Donald Trump's conviction in the New York secret money case be in November?
The obvious answer is that nobody knows. Still, I suspect the verdict will be important, but not in a way that is easy or even possible to predict.
Much of the instant reaction revolves around polls. We talk about surveys not because they are very important but because we need much more to move forward. Like the proverbial drunk who looks under the streetlight for his lost keys because the light is much better there, we look at the surveys because at least they illuminate something, although it's not much.
He notion Polls conducted since Thursday's verdict show that just over half of Americans think the jury was right. A CBS survey found that the verdict changed very few minds, although a small number had more negative views of Trump. None of this is surprising, given that attitudes about the trial have followed attitudes toward Trump.
Now, if the judge jails Trump for an extended period (which seems unlikely and indefensible, given the nature of the crime), attitudes may shift more in Trump's favor. But if it's just for a day, attitudes probably won't change but intensify.
If the opinions indicated by the latest polls remain constant during the approximately 150 days until November 5, a plausible argument could be made that the verdict will cost Trump the election. The consensus among experts across the partisan spectrum is that this election will be decided by a small number of votes in a handful of states, so moving even a couple of percentage points away from Trump could be decisive.
But opinions are not constant, at least not among the type of voters who will decide the elections.
Until recently, Trump enjoyed higher favorability ratings than at any time during his presidency. A mix of nostalgia for the pre-COVID Trump-era economy and dissatisfaction with President Biden has been better for Trump than anything he ever did as president.
No one knows what will happen in the next five months, but it is not unreasonable to assume that over time the verdict will become less important to everyone.
But given the closeness of the race and the voters who will decide it, that doesn't mean it won't have lasting consequences.
many triumphs boosters responded to the verdict with statements such as “Trump just won the election.” This wishful thinking stems from the belief that outrage over the verdict will drive more voters to Trump. However, so far the evidence points to the opposite.
It's true that Republican outrage over the verdict has motivated Trump supporters in the same way as the FBI's search at Mar-a-Lago. The result has been a windfall in donations to the Trump campaign, even from crucial first-time donors. Given Trump's fundraising difficulties compared to Biden, that could matter.
But one analytical mistake that Trump's world constantly makes is the idea that attitudes toward him inside the MAGA bubble extend to voters outside of it. Trump's biggest supporters believe they represent America as a whole, which is one reason they still believe the United States could not have voted to overthrow him in 2020.
We don't know how the verdict will change the behavior of not only voters but also candidates. If Biden exaggerates Trump's status as a “criminal,” he could underscore the view that he lacks a persuasive case for his reelection on the merits. It could also reinforce the unfounded allegation that Biden orchestrated the impeachment for his benefit.
Meanwhile, if Trump listens to his biggest supporters and indulges his own sense of grievance (not a particularly big “if”), he could end up making the election a referendum on him and the chaos he brings, rather than a referendum on Biden.
I don't think this case should have been brought, but I also think it's crazy to say it represents “the end of the country as we know it,” as Ohio Senator JD Vance insisted. In fact, it's surprising how so many people who once claimed that the trial didn't matter to voters now suddenly insist that voters will care just as much about its outcome.
Voters will care about all kinds of things. And it is very likely that, to the extent that Trump's conviction matters, it will confirm the views that most Americans already held.
