The general election campaign between President Biden and former President Trump began, the rematch that almost no one wanted ahead of schedule last week.
The former governor of South Carolina. nikki haley He's still challenging for the Republican nomination, but it will take a miracle (actually, more of a miracle) to unseat Trump.
Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel declared that the former president was her party's presumptive nominee, even though only two states have actually voted in caucuses or primaries.
In practice, Biden and Trump campaign against each other as if haley They were already gone.
This indecently early start is not the only factor that makes these elections unusual:
It's been 112 years since a sitting president and a former president collided in a rematch. Never in modern history have two such unpopular candidates faced each other (although the 2016 race between Trump and the Democrat Hillary Clinton It was close). And never before had I had the alleged the nominees were so old; Biden is 81 years old, Trump will be 78 in June.
“The fact that you have two [candidates who’ve been president]neither of whom are well-liked, makes it a unique situation,” said Democratic pollster and strategist Mark Mellman.
When a sitting president runs for a second term, the election is typically a referendum on his record.
But this will be a “dual referendum”, because both candidates have recent records to defend.
Biden is viewed unfavorably by 58% of Americans and Trump by 57%, according to a recent study. Gallup poll.
Many voters will make their choice by deciding which unappealing candidate to vote against, not which champion to vote for.
This is especially true for a key subset: the roughly 15% of Americans who dislike both candidates, often called “double enemies.”
The dual enemies helped determine the outcome both in 2016, when most of them chose Trump over Clinton, and in 2020, when most abandoned Trump for Biden.
The combination of a double referendum and double unpopularity guarantees that this will be one of the most negative campaigns in living memory.
“Both parties want to make the elections a referendum on the other candidate. That will make the campaign negative,” Mellman said.
It has already begun.
Trump's message has focused on the damage he claims Biden has inflicted on the country: high inflation, a surge in undocumented immigration and rising crime. (Inflation is going down, the economy is growing, and FBI statistics show crime is going down, but that won't stop the former president from repeating his claims.)
Biden message has focused on the damage he believes a second Trump presidency would cause: the erosion of democracy, stricter restrictions on abortion and deeper economic inequality.
Neither has presented much in terms of a positive vision. Both campaigns focus on fear, not hope.
“This could be the most depressing nine months in history in terms of public discourse,” predicted Republican pollster David Winston.
This is what the two candidates must do to win, according to strategists from both parties:
“Trump's team needs to keep the focus and pressure on Biden, to make the election a referendum on his record,” Mellman said. “They also need to reassure people about Trump's mistakes and weaknesses, which is difficult to do, because Trump constantly reminds people of his mistakes.”
Republican strategists say Trump needs to spend less time complaining about the 2020 election, which he wrongly claims was stolen. Those grievances mobilize Trump's already loyal supporters, but they alienate moderate voters and the “double enemies” who will decide the election.
Meanwhile, Biden “has to do two important things,” Mellman said. “One is to communicate more effectively what he has accomplished,” because “people are largely unaware” of what he has done.
“Second, you have to make clear the disadvantages of electing Trump. Yeah, it's about democracyBut it is about much more than that.”
Biden began addressing that priority last week when he spoke at an abortion rights rally in Virginia.
Aides say the president also intends to lay out a positive agenda for a second term in his State of the Union address on March 7.
“Question No. 1 is: How is someone who doesn’t like both candidates going to choose?” Winston said. “They want to hear candidates discuss solutions to problems. “They don’t want to hear a battle of grievances.”
Comparative polls suggest that if the election were held tomorrow, Trump would win a narrow victory in the popular vote.
But nine months before Election Day, those polls are not reliable predictions. A lot can change between now and November.
If he economy continues to improve, that should help Biden. If Trump is found guilty in one of the criminal trials he faces, that could also help Biden. International crises could affect in any way.
Third Party Candidates including Robert F, Kennedy Jr.Green Party candidate Jill Stein and the wildcard organization Without tags – could attract votes from both candidates.
One more wild card: the health of the older candidates. A major medical event on either side could tilt the election.
As boring as the campaign may be, the stakes are still huge.
Biden and Trump offer starkly contrasting futures: an old-school Democrat who has gradually moved left, and an autocratic Republican populist who says he will use the presidency to prosecute his opponents.
And the result remains unpredictable. This month's polls cannot predict how voters will feel in November.
So don't believe anyone who claims to know how it will turn out. They do not do it.
