Former President Trump's conviction on 34 criminal counts of falsifying business records in New York is an ignoble first. No former president has ever been tried, much less convicted, of serious crimes.
But Trump's new status as a convicted felon likely won't significantly affect his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election.
That, too, is a strange historical development: a presidential candidate convicted of serious crimes, but suffering little or no political damage in the process.
As sensational as the charges are, which arose from hush money payments made to an adult film actor, many voters will react to the Manhattan jury's decision with a shrug.
The conviction will not prevent Trump from remaining in the race until Election Day, and if he wins, he has a good chance of avoiding serious sanctions while in the White House.
It won't be easy to turn a conviction for 34 felonies into a victory, but there are many ways Trump can mitigate the consequences.
He will continue to claim that the process was unfair and politically motivated, as he did as he left court Thursday night.
“This was a disgrace,” he said, standing behind a steel barricade. “It was a rigged trial by a conflictive judge. … The Biden administration did this to hurt, hurt a political opponent.”
There is no evidence that the Biden administration played any role in the case, which was brought by a state prosecutor without the involvement of the federal Justice Department.
“The true verdict will be given by the people on November 5,” Trump said, referring to Election Day.
If he appeals the verdict, as expected, that will allow him to argue – correctly – that a conviction is not final while it is being challenged. It's no coincidence that it also keeps him out of jail, at least for a while.
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Following the verdict, Judge Juan M. Merchan scheduled Trump's sentencing for July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. The lawyers said Merchan was unlikely to order Trump's jailing if an appeal is pending.
Under New York law, Trump's lawyers have 30 days to file a notice of appeal and six months to file briefs supporting the appeal, a period that would extend well beyond Election Day.
Several polls in recent weeks have suggested that a guilty verdict could turn a significant number of voters away from Trump, but pollsters and strategists from both parties doubt such an effect would be significant or lasting.
“If I were betting, I'd bet on no impact, or a swing in the polls, followed by a return to the status quo,” said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.
In an ABC News/IPSOS poll last month, 16% of current Trump voters said they would “reconsider” supporting him if he were convicted in the New York case. Only 4% said they would definitely stop supporting him. But voters often do not reliably predict their own reactions, pollsters said.
Trump voters have proven to be fiercely loyal to their favorite candidate, criminal or not.
Trump himself has marveled at the phenomenon. “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and I wouldn't lose any voters, okay?” he said in 2016. “It's amazing.”
Within minutes of Thursday's verdict, Republican leaders in Congress echoed Trump in denouncing the trial, a sign that GOP ranks are likely to close around their presumptive nominee.
“Today is a shameful day in American history,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a prepared statement. “This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another Trump ally, predicted that the trial “will backfire tremendously” for Democrats, adding, “I hope this case is overturned on appeal.”
Trump himself used the verdict to solicit donations from his followers. “I am a political prisoner!” he stated in an email and a social media post. (He has not been jailed; he returned to his Trump Tower apartment after he concluded the trial on Thursday.)
The presumptive Republican nominee has incited his supporters for months to ignore a guilty verdict, relentlessly attacking the cases against him as politically motivated.
“If I were trying to design a court case that was easy for Republicans to dismiss as a partisan witch hunt, I would design the New York case,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, noting Manhattan Dist. Attorney. Alvin Bragg is not only a Democrat but also a vocal critic of Trump.
Six months ago, any of four criminal cases against Trump could have threatened his presidential campaign: a federal prosecution stemming from the invasion of the Capitol by his supporters on January 6, 2021; a federal case on charges of illegally retaining highly classified documents; a case of election interference in Georgia; and the New York corporate fraud case.
Even with the New York verdict, Trump and his lawyers have postponed any final reckoning until after Election Day: Three trials are delayed and he will likely appeal his verdict in the fourth, a process that would last well beyond the elections.
Those charges aren't going away, but if Trump becomes president, he can order the Justice Department to stop the two federal cases. Some career Justice Department officials might refuse to carry out those orders, but a newly inaugurated president will presumably be able to find (or appoint) someone willing to do his bidding.
And under most legal precedents, state courts would stay his prosecutions in New York and Georgia while he is in the White House. If he takes office in January and completes a full term, none of the cases will be decided before 2029, when he will be 82 years old.
Being the first former president convicted of criminal charges is certainly a dubious achievement.
Equally unprecedented – and potentially more damaging to democracy – Trump has set future politicians a dangerous example: He has shown that felony convictions need not stand in the way of success.
Read more McManus columns about Trump:
Trump has big plans for California if he wins a second term. Fasten seat belts
Trump wants to arrest more than a million undocumented immigrants from California. This is how he could do it
Trump loves fossil fuels; California wants clean energy. signal collision
