Donald Trump is running against California, again.
In his campaign to win a second term, the former president frequently criticizes the state as a terrifying dystopia, the inevitable product, he claims, of Democratic policies.
“The place is failing,” he told a Conservative conference last month.
“It has become a symbol of our nation's decline,” he told California Republicans last year.
“They don't have water,” he said. “Rich people in Beverly Hills… [are] Only a small amount of water is allowed when showering. “That's why rich people in Beverly Hills, in general, don't smell that good.”
He accused Gov. Gavin Newsom of telling undocumented immigrants: “If you go up, we will give you pension funds…. We will give you a mansion.” (Newsom has never promised pension funds or mansions to immigrants.)
Under its current policies, Trump charged, the state can “snatch children from their parents and sterilize them.” (California does not confiscate children for sterilization.)
“He has destroyed California,” Trump said of the governor, whom he recently gave a new and surprisingly unappealing nickname: “Gavin New-Scum.”
Of course, attacking California has become a standard feature of GOP rhetoric. A national poll for The Times this year found that nearly half of Republicans believe the state is “not really American.”
What makes Trump's account more than just nonsense is that he could be president next year and that he has big plans for California if he wins.
He has promised to use a broad view of presidential power to undo state laws and policies on many fronts, including areas like law enforcement and education, where states, not the federal government, have traditionally been in charge.
Some examples:
He says he will close the US-Mexico border on his first day in office – the day he has set aside to act like “a dictator” – and launch “the largest internal deportation operation in US history.”
His Santa Monica-born immigration adviser, Stephen Miller, says that if Democratic states like California don't cooperate, Trump could order National Guard units from red states like Texas to cross their borders, a recipe for a constitutional crisis.
Trump has promised to eliminate President Biden's programs to promote renewable energy, including subsidies for electric vehicles and charging stations. His advisers have proposed limiting California's power to set auto fuel emissions standards.
He says he will stop the state from allowing Sacramento River water to flow into the Pacific to protect the Sacramento Delta. “We're not going to let them get away with this anymore,” he said. (Water experts say it would be impractical and environmentally disastrous to completely divert the river's flow. Newsom has already suspended some environmental laws to send more water to reservoirs and is preparing to build a new water tunnel under the delta.)
Trump says he will send federal law enforcement agents to Oakland and other cities to stop rampant theft. “If you rob a store, you can expect to be shot when you leave that store: you will be shot!” he said.
And it says it will prosecute California health care providers if they comply with a state law that prohibits disclosing gender-related health care information about minors to other states. (He called the law a “sick scheme by California to violate federal anti-kidnapping laws.” [and] sex trafficking”).
Those proposals suggest that a second Trump term, like his first, would produce major clashes between the White House and California's Democratic state government.
“If campaign promises mean anything, it's not just about a second term; you’re seeing Trump on steroids,” said Larry Gerston, professor emeritus of political science at San Jose State University. “The impact on California would be very real. Abruptly removing large numbers of undocumented immigrants, for example, would disrupt our lives… and would be a huge blow to the economy.”
Many of those proposals are retreads of Trump's first term as president from 2017 to 2021. Some, like his attempt to repeal California's emissions standards, were blocked by courts after state lawsuits.
But Trump may have a better chance of success the second time around.
His first term began with little preparation and without a detailed transition plan. This time, he is likely to name a more Trumpified White House staff and Cabinet, with fewer moderates applying the brakes.
The Supreme Court, with three Trump appointees in its six-seat majority, is also friendlier.
And pro-Trump policy experts have already produced a 920-page manual of policy proposals for a second Trump term, “Project 2025.”
“This is a very important thing,” said Donald F. Kettl of the University of Texas, an expert on federal-state relations. “At the end of Trump's first term, there was frustration among his aides because they had finally figured out what they wanted to do, but they ran out of time. “They have spent four years planning, learning from their mistakes and developing an action plan.”
Some of his ideas would still be difficult to carry out, Kettl noted.
“Sending troops into the country to search for immigrants awaiting their court dates would be very difficult to implement,” he said.
But even the less bellicose actions Trump has proposed could have major effects in California and other Western states. I'll explore them in more depth in future columns.
