This year’s presidential election campaign is likely to be remembered as a year in which voters pondered a rematch that no one really wanted.
President Biden and former President Trump are likely to win their parties’ nominations. However, a recent Associated Press-NORC poll found that 58% of Americans don’t like the idea of Trump running again, and 56% are unhappy with Biden remaining in the race.
That gives a huge amount of power to those who don’t like both, the “double enemies.”
That happened in 2016, when voters who disliked Trump and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton swung toward Trump. And again in 2020, when the double enemies abandoned Trump for Biden.
But this campaign has another wild card: independent and third party candidates.
Early polls have revealed that when voters are offered a third option, up to 17% choose it, enough to swing the election.
Those numbers do not predict what will happen in November; In most years, the third-party vote declines rapidly as election day approaches. But they are further proof that voters crave options different from what lies ahead.
And that has encouraged a burgeoning slate of independent and third-party candidates: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who made a name for himself as an anti-vaccine activist; Cornel West, a prominent black socialist scholar and activist; Jill Stein, likely third-time Green Party candidate; and perhaps most intriguing, a well-funded group called No Labels that hopes to run with a moderate Republican and a moderate Democrat.
That’s a problem for Biden more than it is for Trump. Strategists from both parties believe some of the president’s current voters are more likely to abandon him if they see an appetizing alternative. A Bloomberg-Morning Consult poll conducted last month in seven swing states found evidence of this: 16% of Biden voters said they might vote for Kennedy or another independent candidate, while only 11% of Trump voters They said they were tempted to go for the third game. route.
Historically, no third-party candidate has won a presidential election, but several have managed to tip the balance.
That happened in 1912 when Theodore Roosevelt, a former Republican running for the Progressive Party, split the Republican vote and handed the White House to Democrat Woodrow Wilson. And in 2000, when Democrat Al Gore lost Florida by 537 votes, possibly because Green candidate Ralph Nader won more than 97,000 votes in the state. And in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by fewer votes than Stein won in those states.
In last week’s average of polls compiled by the website Real Clear Politics, when voters are offered more than the two major party candidates, Kennedy attracts about 14% of the national vote; West and Stein draw 2% each. (The No Labels proposal cannot be tested in the same way because the group has not named its candidates.)
However, the most important factor at this stage is not those ephemeral voter preferences. The question is whether any of those third-party candidates can appear on the ballot in the closely divided “battleground states” that will almost certainly decide the presidential election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“The national numbers are not important,” said Doug Sosnik, a veteran Democratic strategist who worked for President Clinton. “The only thing that matters is how these candidates do in the states that will decide the elections. “That’s where a few percentage points can decide everything.”
That’s why many Democratic strategists worry more about No Labels, the well-funded group that has a lead in getting on the ballot in all 50 states. So far, No Labels has gained access to the polls in 14 states, including the battlegrounds of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. Stein’s Green Party is also likely to appear at the polls in most states.
Kennedy has qualified only in Utah. West’s prospects are uncertain; It’s unclear whether he has the funds or organization to mount a nationwide ballot access effort.
Last week, Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, issued a new warning to Democratic donors to stay away from No Labels.
“Their own polls say they would lose and sabotage Trump,” Third Way executive vice president Matt Bennett said in an email.
No Labels disputes that claim and says its polls suggest it could win enough states with 34% or more of the vote to assemble a majority in the electoral college. Political professionals consider these simulations to be far-fetched.
It is not yet clear if No Labels will execute a ticket. The group planned a convention this summer, but then canceled it.
Still, if any of those third-party candidates appear on the ballot in battleground states, they will pose an additional burden on Biden.
When a president runs for a second term, the election is usually a referendum on his record. Biden hopes to flip that script and win by turning the election into a referendum on Trump. Third-party candidates could alter that situation by offering anti-Trump voters an escape route.
That means Biden won’t be able to win solely by stoking fears about his predecessor’s return. He will have to make a strong case that the third-party escape route is just another way to elect Trump.
