The presidential campaign seems painfully close and strangely immovable. Former President Trump narrowly leads in national and swing state polls, but his lead is too small to guarantee he will win.
Both he and President Biden are disliked by most voters. External events (economic news, campus riots, Trump's criminal trial in New York) don't seem to push the numbers in any direction.
So it's no mystery why the two candidates agreed last week to hold televised debates in June and September. Both are looking for something that can revolutionize the race.
The mystery is that each one seems convinced that he is the only one who can get ahead.
Biden believes he can win if voters stop dwelling on their discontent with the economy and focus on the threat Trump poses to democracy and abortion rights. In the opinion of the Biden team, the debates would clearly show that direct comparison.
Trump claims Biden is mentally unfit, saying, “He can't put two sentences together,” and appearing to expect the president to crumble under pressure on the debate stage.
They can't both be right.
In a strange way, the candidates' expectations for the debates reflect a similarity between their campaigns: Each hopes to win primarily by persuading voters to focus on the other's flaws.
“Both are operating under the mistaken assumption that they can't possibly lose to each other,” said Republican pollster David Winston.
They can't both be right about that either.
“We've gone from 'yes we can' to just 'compare me to the alternative.' “
— Eric Schnure, Democratic speechwriter
In his public appearances, Trump barely bothers to appeal to voters who are not already devoted to him.
He offers no details of what he would do in a second term beyond broad promises to undo Biden's policies, encourage oil companies to increase production (“drill, baby, drill!”) and deport millions of undocumented immigrants. .
At a raucous rally in a New Jersey coastal town this month, the former president described Biden as “a complete idiot…surrounded by fascists.”
And he launched himself onto a strange platform before Hannibal Lecter, the cannibal murderer played by actor Anthony Hopkins in the 1991 film “The Silence of the Lambs.”
“The late, great Hannibal Lecter. He is a wonderful man,” Trump said. “He often invited a friend to dinner. Do you remember the last scene? 'Excuse me, I'm about to invite a friend to dinner,' as this poor doctor walked by. “I'm about to invite a friend to dinner.” But Hannibal Lecter. Congratulations.”
If listened closely, the former president seemed to be suggesting that cannibals have entered the United States as undocumented immigrants. But he never made it clear, perhaps because there have been no reports of honest citizens being eaten.
Trump made a potentially significant political statement during that 87-minute speech: He said he favors an across-the-board tax cut: “middle class, upper class, lower class, business class.” But he offered no details, so what could have been a substantial announcement received less media coverage than his musings on Hannibal Lecter.
Nine years into his first presidential campaign, Trump seems more bored than ever with political details.
“He's on TV every day… but he doesn't use the time to communicate positively with the electorate,” Winston said.
Biden's campaign, as expected, has been more conventional. In his speeches around the country, the president tries to remind voters of the record job creation over the past three years, what he calls “the great American comeback.” He touts his legislative accomplishments, including billions of dollars in funding for infrastructure, high-tech and clean energy projects.
But he rarely talks about the two issues that have caused him the most problems: persistently high prices and surges in illegal immigration, even though many voters consider them their top concerns.
And Biden has stepped up his attacks on Trump, warning that his election would “drag us back… into chaos, division and darkness.”
“He is driven by grievance and pain, focused on his own revenge and retribution, not the American people,” Biden said in March.
In recent weeks, he has stoked the attacks with humor, calling Trump “Mr. Sleepy,” in reference to reports that the former president fell asleep in a Manhattan courtroom during the trial.
Biden's advisers are candid about the underlying strategy. They want to make the election a “dual referendum” (one that compares the two candidates against each other) rather than a referendum on Biden's record.
They quote one of the president's favorite phrases: “Don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative.”
In terms of campaign slogans, that's not exactly fascinating, noted Democratic speechwriter Eric Schnure. “We've gone from 'yes we can' to just 'compare me to the alternative,'” Schnure said, recalling then-President Obama's motto in 2008.
But at least it recognizes the kind of election we're about to have: an election between two flawed and unpopular candidates. Many voters, perhaps most, will not choose the candidate they most admire; They will vote against the one they consider most dangerous. In short, an election for the Age of Trump.
