- Trudeau is forced to try new alliances to continue governing.
- The NDP had agreed to keep Trudeau in power until mid-2025.
- The House of Commons resumes work on 16 September.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau suffered an unexpected blow on Wednesday when the small party that helped keep his minority Liberal government in power withdrew its automatic support, forcing him to try new alliances to govern.
Trudeau vowed to continue governing and pushing through social programs and dismissed talk of an early election after leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh said he was “breaking up” an agreement reached between the two men in 2022.
But the decision leaves Trudeau dependent on support from other opposition lawmakers to survive confidence votes in the lower house of parliament at a time when polls show he will lose badly if an election is held now. The election must be held before the end of October 2025 under Canadian law.
“There will be an election next year, hopefully not until next fall, because in the meantime we are going to deliver for the Canadians,” Trudeau told reporters at a school where he had arrived to talk about expanding lunch programs.
“I really hope the NDP continues to focus on how we can help Canadians, as we have done in recent years, rather than focusing on politics.”
Trudeau, 52, first took office in November 2015 but has struggled in the past two years to fend off attacks from opposition centre-right Conservatives who blame him for high inflation and the housing crisis.
With the support of the NDP, his government has pushed forward social programs designed to address the cost of living.
But the NDP's Singh had expressed growing frustration with Trudeau in recent months, especially over what he said was the Liberals' failure to deal with high supermarket prices.
“Justin Trudeau has proven time and time again that he will always cave to corporate greed,” Singh said in a video posted on social media where he also declared that he will run for prime minister in the next election. “The Liberals have misled the people; they do not deserve another chance.”
Polls suggest the same voter fatigue affecting Trudeau has also spread to the NDP, which despite successfully lobbying the Liberals to introduce measures such as a national dental program, is languishing far behind in third place.
Under the 2022 deal, the NDP agreed to keep Trudeau in power until mid-2025 in exchange for increased social spending.
Fred Cutler, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia, said the party needed to restore its full independence well before the election.
“At least some voters will say, 'Oh yeah… the NDP is not only in the Liberals' pocket, it's running against them in the election,'” Cutler said.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre reiterated his call for an early election to break up what he called a Liberal-NDP coalition that is driving up prices for Canadians.
The House of Commons will resume work on September 16, after which the Conservatives will be able to propose a vote of no confidence. Trudeau's Liberals could still survive if the NDP abstains in such a vote.
An NDP statement said the party would decide on an issue-by-issue basis whether to support the Liberals in confidence votes, suggesting it could continue to support Trudeau if his fate were at stake.
A key moment for the Trudeau government will be its budget update later this year, which, if rejected by lawmakers, would trigger a new election.
