As if Democrats didn't have enough to keep them up at night, here's something even more terrifying. Visions of a Trump victory: a Republican trifecta in Washington.
From Joe Biden Disastrous performance in the debate and the blossoming Concerns about your age And his sharpness is not only undermining his chances for a second term, it also threatens to drag down his party and thwart Democratic efforts to retain the Senate and gain control of the House of Representatives.
That helps explain the The great madness of the party and why so many Democratic lawmakers desperately want Biden to step aside and abandon his reelection effort (even if they're not willing to say so publicly. We're not seeing much resolve or intestinal fortitude right now).
“What’s happening now is not going to help in any way those running for reelection,” said Jim Manley, who spent decades in the Senate as a top leadership adviser.
Nonpartisan election analysts — those who make their living offering measured, thoughtful analysis of races across the country — agree. Existential angst Regarding Biden and his durability, Both physically and politically, he is not helping his party or his candidates, they say (being measured and putting it very mildly).
“The question is: How big of a hole is Biden digging for themselves at the top of the ticket that they need to get out of in their own races?” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections.
Here are some mandatory warnings:
- There is still a long way to go until November.
- There is There is no certainty that he will replace Biden because the Democratic candidate will not make things worse.
- Donald Trump could do something like this Terrible and hateful that voters will pull out in droves, sending him and his fellow Republicans into an epic drubbing in November, though I wouldn't get my hopes up about this.
For now, at least, Democrats suddenly face a much steeper climb to avoid a full Republican takeover in Washington, including a Supreme Court submissive and friendly to Trump.
Democrats have always had a tough time maintaining control of the Senate. They have a slim 51-49 lead, counting three independents running in the primaries. They have to defend more than twice as many seats as Republicans (23 to 11), and several of them are in states that Trump won comfortably in 2020.
West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin at a political event in New Hampshire in January.
(Charles Krupa/Associated Press)
It's virtually a certainty that Republicans will take the Senate seat he occupies. Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, Trump has won the state by nearly 40 percentage points.
That would leave the House at 50-50. Under those circumstances, Democrats could maintain control if they win the White House, since the vice president serves as a tiebreaker. But reaching a 50-50 split would require two of the most threatened Democratic incumbents — Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio — to prevail in states Trump won decisively last time around.
Polls have consistently shown that Democrats across the country are outperforming the president, demonstrating how Biden's specific problems are Jessica Taylor, who analyzes Senate races for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, says the question is: When does Biden become too much of a liability for Democratic candidates to overcome?
“You can outperform the president by 5, 6, 7 points,” Taylor said, but how much more? “At what point,” he asked, “does the gravitational pull overwhelm even a Democratic president who has a perfect career?”
Democrats are talking optimistically about the possibility of gaining Senate seats in Republican-leaning states Florida and Texas to offset potential losses elsewhere. But that would require not only fighting Biden’s downdraft but also overcoming the country’s increasingly partisan voting habits.
In 2016, for the first time, all Senate races followed the same direction as the presidential race. That is, if Trump won a state, the seat went to a Republican. If Hillary Clinton won, the seat went to a Democrat. The pattern was repeated in 2020, with one exception: Maine.
Increasingly, the American ticket-dealer is becoming a rare breed.
The fight for the House appears to be much closer.
Democrats need to gain just four seats to gain control. The Cook Report rates 44 seats as competitive, with 24 held by Democrats and 20 by Republicans. (Inside Elections sees a wider field, with 71 seats up for grabs, 39 Democrats and 32 Republicans.)
The problem for Democrats is a clear change of mood after Biden's poor performance in Atlanta and his faltering efforts to remedy it ever since.
President Biden arrives to attend Mass at St. Joseph on Brandywine Catholic Church in Wilmington, Del., on Saturday.
(Manuel Balce Ceneta/Associated Press)
“I think the debate has created a fundamental problem,” he said. David Wasserman, who follows House races in favor of the Cook Report. By this he means the prospect that Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters will be left out of the polls in November, sinking the party's candidates.
All that doom and gloom aside, there is only one silver lining for beleaguered Democrats, regardless of whether… Biden remains entrenched and remains at the top of their list.
If defeat in November seems certain, independent voters may lean Democratic to prevent Republicans from winning control of the House and Senate and allowing a revived Trump to sweep.
That checks and balances argument was used by Republicans—subtly—in 1996, when it was clear that Republican candidate Bob Dole I was about to losing to President Clinton. Did it work? It's hard to say, but Republicans managed to gain two Senate seats and lose only two in the House, maintaining control of both chambers even as Clinton won reelection.
But that's looking on the bright side for Democrats.
If that is their best hope, the party is in serious trouble.
