Cornell Belcher, a prominent pollster who worked for the Democratic National Committee and both Obama campaigns, wants party leaders to keep quiet about President Biden's poll numbers.
“There’s too much talk about polls right now,” Belcher said. “As a pollster, it’s driving me crazy that people are trying to create whatever narrative they want through polls.”
In recent days, Biden has faced growing calls to drop out of the race from members of his own party. Many have pointed to worsening poll numbers for the 81-year-old incumbent since his disastrous debate performance last month. Some fear that questions about the president’s mental acuity will doom down-ballot candidates as well.
But with Biden repeatedly insisting he won’t step aside, Belcher said, Democrats who dwell on his sagging support are hurting, rather than helping, his cause.
Cornell Belcher, president of Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies and senior fellow for Foreign and Defense Policy at the American Enterprise Institute, will appear on “Meet the Press” on October 23, 2022.
(William B. Plowman/Getty Images)
“In the last three weeks, Democrats have done more damage to our ability to win in November than Donald Trump and the Republicans have been able to do,” Belcher said. “They have to stop [the] circular firing squad in which they are currently, because it is a death spiral.”
While calls from members of Congress and major donors for Biden to step aside have dominated headlines in recent days, many other Democratic loyalists have stood by the president and dismissed such calls as damaging and dangerous, raising challenging questions for the party.
How much longer must leaders push Biden to go? Will it be possible to refocus voters’ attention on the party’s accomplishments and its core message: that former President Trump represents an existential threat to democracy? Is Vice President Kamala Harris a better candidate? Or anyone else?
Perhaps most importantly, what is the party's plan for right now?
“That,” said a senior House Democratic official, “is what we’re all trying to figure out.”
'A proof of how strong the party is'
During an interview on MSNBC's “Morning Joe” on Friday, Biden's campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon said Biden would “absolutely” run.
O'Malley Dillon said the campaign is “watching the polls” and acknowledged that “there has been some loss of support” since the debate. But he said it's “a small movement” in a “tough” race in which many Americans have already made up their minds, meaning many are committed to Biden.
O'Malley Dillon said internal data from door-to-door canvassing and other efforts in battleground states has shown Biden remains a contender.
Many prominent Democrats claimed the opposite.
“Simply put,” Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) wrote in a letter to Biden released Friday, “your candidacy is on track to lose the White House and potentially affect crucial House and Senate races in subsequent elections.”
Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), center, speaks as the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol holds its final meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington, Dec. 19, 2022. From left, Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose), Thompson and Vice Chair Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.)
(Jim Lo Scalzo/Associated Press)
Earlier this week, a voting memorandum A poll by Democratic polling firm BlueLabs Analytics found that alternative candidates outperformed Biden in a theoretical matchup with Trump in battleground states. An Associated Press poll found that nearly two-thirds of Democrats thought Biden should drop out.
Michael Kazin, a history professor at Georgetown University and author of “What It Took to Win: A History of the Democratic Party,” said the divide between Biden loyalists and dissenters presented a unique challenge.
“It’s a testament to how strong the party is in many ways,” he said. “And not just how strong it is, but how united it is in the belief that defeating Trump is really crucial.”
Kazin said there's no doubt Democratic leaders can shift their support to a new candidate. They just need to decide if that's what they're going to do, and before the party's convention next month in Chicago.
A contested convention, Kazin said, would be “fraught with many dangers” and would lead to new divisions when the party can least afford them.
“One way or another, they have to make the convention a success,” Kazin said. “Otherwise, they are doomed.”
If it's Biden
Whether Biden drops out of the race ultimately depends on one person: Joe Biden. And if he sticks to his stance, party officials will have no choice but to join him, according to political analysts.
Kerry L. Haynie, a political science professor at Duke University, said a Biden victory in November would require all dissidents to quickly offer “full endorsement of the campaign” and then “work in concert” to mobilize people to vote and reframe the race once again as a choice between “competent, honest Joe” and a dangerous Donald Trump.
Democrats will have to articulate the idea that Biden has “slowed down” with age but “is still capable, he’s still getting the job done,” Haynie said.
President Biden speaks at the 115th NAACP National Convention in Las Vegas on Tuesday. Democrats at the highest levels are making a critical push to get Biden to reconsider his candidacy. Former President Obama has privately expressed concerns to Democrats about Biden's candidacy.
(Susan Walsh/Associated Press)
Democratic leaders could also emphasize that voting for Biden guarantees a Democratic administration — one that will protect abortion access, take a humane stance on immigration, appoint liberal judges, and stand up for organized labor, LGBTQ+ people, and other groups.
But Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University, said Democrats should be careful with that message given the current political atmosphere and distrust of bureaucrats.
“There are people who hear that and think ‘deep state,’” he said. “Some find it appealing, but others find it repulsive.”
Belcher, the pollster, said that if poor poll numbers at this early stage of a race were an acceptable reason to oust a candidate, “most of the best candidates in history” would never have been elected, including the one-term black senator “with a Muslim-sounding name” he once worked for.
Democrats need to emphasize the idea that Biden has made people’s lives better in many ways, he said. They need to contrast Biden’s plan with Project 2025, the ultraconservative playbook devised for Trump’s second term by the Heritage Foundation and other conservative groups, he said, and “lean into America’s fear and anxiety about the chaos and dangers of four more years of Donald Trump.”
Most importantly, Belcher said, Democrats need to stand behind Biden as representatives and champion his campaign message in as many places as possible.
“The best arguments for Biden that I’ve heard in the last two weeks haven’t come from anybody on CNN or MSNBC,” Belcher said. “They’ve been on TikTok and Instagram, from people doing it in their cars.”
If Biden steps aside
If Biden steps aside, the party could coalesce around another candidate or hold a contested convention where candidates compete for delegates.
Several experts said an early and unwavering support for Harris was clearly the best option.
Gillespie said that if Harris were “somehow overlooked” without compelling evidence that her candidacy would fare dramatically worse than another candidate, the party would “risk alienating the most loyal Democratic constituency of Black women.”
Vice President Kamala Harris arrives for the grand opening of a pop-up ice cream shop owned by Tyra Banks, left, in Washington on Friday.
(Nathan Howard/Associated Press)
Haynie said Harris would bring new energy and important strengths to the ticket as a younger woman of color who has already led the Biden campaign’s message on abortion rights, and as a daughter of immigrants, given Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric.
But she would also have to defend the Biden administration’s record, even as party members try to steer it in new policy directions, including U.S. support for Israel in its war against Hamas. She would have to push back against legitimate criticism of her bungled 2020 presidential campaign and her performance as vice president.
Harris would also face racist and sexist challenges that other candidates, especially white men, would not.
“As a woman of color, she will face unique challenges in terms of the tone of the attacks,” Gillespie said. “She will have to be able to anticipate those attacks and have a response prepared for them.”
Amy K. Dacey, executive director of the Sine Institute for Politics and Policy at American University, was previously executive director of the Democratic National Committee and, before that, of Emily's List, a national group that works to elect Democratic women.
Dacey said that despite Harris' hurdles, she is a known entity to voters who has been tested on the national stage, unlike other names that have been considered for the nomination.
Dacey said the partisan process is unfolding as planned and Democrats still have time to choose a final nominee. But the sooner they can do so — and refocus the race on policies rather than people — the better.
