Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's threat to attack Cyprus has further raised tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, as the Lebanese Shiite group's conflict with Israel continues to threaten to escalate into an all-out war.
Nasrallah said on Wednesday that Hezbollah did not want an expanded war but was prepared – along with its regional allies – to match Israel's growing aggression. The threat to Cyprus is the result of what Nasrallah said was Israeli use of bases on the eastern Mediterranean island.
“The Cypriot government must be warned that opening Cypriot airports and bases for the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon means that the Cypriot government has become part of the war and the resistance. [Hezbollah] We will address it as part of the war,” Nasrallah said.
Although the UK has two bases in Cyprus, Israeli use of Cypriot land or air bases has not been officially recognised. Israel has used Cypriot airspace to conduct drills in the past.
Nasrallah's heightened rhetoric comes a day after Hezbollah released images it said were taken by one of its drones over the Israeli city of Haifa. The images, which Nasrallah said only showed a small portion of captured footage, appeared to be a warning to Israeli authorities about Hezbollah's reach, should Israel continue to threaten an expansion of its attacks on Lebanon.
Israel had announced on Tuesday that operational plans for a military offensive on its northern neighbor had been “approved and validated.” More than 90,000 Israelis have fled their homes in the north of the country since hostilities with Hezbollah began on October 8, a day after the conflict between Israel and Hamas began in Gaza. At least 90,000 people have also fled their homes in southern Lebanon as a result of Israeli attacks.
'No red lines crossed'
Israel has killed several Hezbollah commanders, including, most recently, Taleb Abdallah, a senior commander who was killed last week. Hezbollah responded to the attack by firing more than 200 rockets, the most it has fired in a single day into Israel since October. Since then, Israel has continued its airstrikes against southern Lebanon, including the city of Tyr.
But despite that, and despite the rhetoric from both sides, there is a belief among observers that both sides are still largely adhering to the rules of engagement, and that escalations are occurring gradually.
“The intensity of hostilities has increased, but not their nature,” said Eyal Lurie-Pardes of the Middle East Institute. “No red line has been crossed. A rocket attack on Haifa, for example, would indicate greater capability, so it would almost constitute a red line. [for Israel].”
“Hezbollah has said they will stop with a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel only needs to deal with the displaced people in the north. “Both are one miscalculation away from conflict.”
Diplomatic efforts continue. US envoy Amos Hochstein, who previously helped mediate a maritime deal between Lebanon and Israel, was recently in Beirut to try to ease border tensions, which could still draw in other regional players.
“[Hochstein’s] The mission is limited by the need for a comprehensive agreement involving both Hamas and Hezbollah,” said Imad Salamey, a political scientist at Lebanese American University. “This need has not been fully recognized or addressed by either the American or Israeli sides, limiting the effectiveness of Hochstein's efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability.”
Anxiety in Lebanon
Although an all-out conflict between Hezbollah and Israel may still be avoided, many Lebanese are increasingly concerned.
“The sentiment in Lebanon is one of growing concern and anxiety over the possible outbreak of an all-out war,” Salamey said. “The Lebanese people take the Israeli army's approval of a war plan very seriously, raising fears of escalation. “This approval has significantly undermined tourism and investment plans in the country, as potential visitors and investors are reconsidering their decisions due to the growing threat of conflict.”
Lebanon has suffered one of the worst economic crises of the century and has been stuck in a political deadlock without a president since October 2022. The country has lacked political and economic stability in recent years, even before the war. Infrastructure is stretched thin and an expanded war could have a devastating effect on an already struggling nation.
“Lebanon is not in a position to respond effectively to an Israeli invasion or a broader air war against its infrastructure,” Salamey said. “Any significant expansion of the conflict would be devastating, as the destruction of infrastructure would be difficult to repair or replace. “The Lebanese government lacks resources for reconstruction and there are few international donors willing to provide the necessary support, unlike after the 2006 war.”
Further dissolution of the Lebanese state could also have serious repercussions for the region, Salamey said, adding that it “could exacerbate existing political and social tensions in Lebanon, making recovery even more difficult.”
“The destruction of Lebanon would produce a state of chaos with armed groups invading its territory, thus creating a much more unstable situation. [for the Israelis, too],” he said.
Israelis want answers
However, if Israel decides to continue collaborating with Lebanon, its military and civilian infrastructure could also suffer serious damage. Hezbollah is significantly stronger and better equipped than Hamas and the group has recently unveiled new weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles that have driven Israeli military aircraft out of Lebanese airspace for the first time.
“What is particularly worrying and significant is that the Israelis seem to have learned absolutely nothing after their past experiences in Lebanon,” Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “The announcement they made yesterday that they are about to wage an all-out war that would annihilate Hezbollah is, at best, extraordinarily naïve and, at worst, shows amateurism.”
“Hezbollah could inflict serious, significant and even unprecedented damage on Israel,” he added.
Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and 1982, where it laid siege to west Beirut to expel Yasser Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). It occupied southern Lebanon from 1985 to 2000.
While Israel's military establishment appears aware of Hezbollah's capabilities, many in Israel, including far-right ministers such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, are pushing for military solutions over diplomacy. Smotrich in particular has even floated the idea of reoccupying southern Lebanon, although Lurie-Pardes said that “only the far right/radical fringe… would want to conquer Lebanon.”
There is a widespread belief that Israel would need a ceasefire in Gaza in order to focus all its attention on Lebanon, but Lurie-Pardes said operating on two fronts is not out of the question.
“Israel can handle another front,” he said. “The human and financial cost would be immense, but they could do it.”
Inside Israel, political pressure on politicians is increasing as the school year approaches and northern residents want to return home. There is a growing view from the Israeli side of the border that they will not be able to live safely as long as Hezbollah operates nearby.
“The public wants it both ways,” Lurie-Pardes said. “They want to feel safe in the north and they want to see military action that makes that a reality.”
“People want that to be answered. However, they also understand that Hezbollah is more powerful than Hamas and has more complex weaponry.”
What is clear is that an expanded war will have few winners. Israel has struggled to achieve its stated goal of eradicating Hamas for the past eight months, and Hezbollah has far greater capabilities than the Palestinian group. And while Israel could cause serious damage to Lebanon, it could also have unforeseen long-term repercussions, as has happened in the past.
“In 1982, the Israelis wanted to put an end to the PLO and they succeeded, but that led to the birth of Hezbollah, a much more radical and more organized movement than Fatah,” Bitar said. “The same scenario could happen again.”
