WASHINGTON- A renewed push by the Trump administration to resolve Russia's war in Ukraine is rattling European governments that fear Washington is laying the groundwork for an ultimatum to kyiv on Moscow's terms.
The flurry of diplomatic engagements has left Ukrainian and European diplomats alarmed that President Trump and his team have accepted Russia's justification for the war, which Vladimir Putin launched in 2022 to conquer Ukraine and destroy its democratic government, precipitating the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II.
It is the latest back-and-forth in Trump's Ukraine policy since he took office. The president has repeatedly expressed anger and frustration with Ukraine for its insistence on defending itself, only to change course days or weeks later, temporarily embracing European partnerships, the NATO alliance and kyiv's prospects for victory.
The administration appeared to settle on a long-term course this week, releasing a National Security Strategy document on Friday stating that Europe has “unrealistic expectations” about the outcome of the war and suggesting it would work to cultivate political “resistance” to Europe’s “current trajectory.”
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in perception and practice, should not be seen as an expanding alliance, the document says, a nod to an old Russian argument justifying its military posture on the continent.
Americans overwhelmingly oppose Trump's current approach by a 2-to-1 margin, which would force Ukraine to give up its sovereign territory, including lands that Russia has failed to secure on the battlefield despite suffering more than a million casualties. A recent Gallup poll found that Republicans disapprove of Trump's Ukraine policy more than any other issue.
Still, the president's advisers appear enthusiastic about a plan that would force Ukraine to give up territory in exchange for nonbinding commitments to secure what's left of the country for the future.
Steve Witkoff, a former real estate developer, and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law who negotiated the Abraham Accords between Middle Eastern countries during Trump's first term, are leading the current effort, shuttling between Moscow and Florida, where they have hosted Ukrainian diplomats, to hammer out a peace plan. The current framework is based on a 28-point document drafted by the Americans in consultation with the Russians.
A telephone conversation between Witkoff and his Russian counterpart, the transcript of which was leaked last month, revealed that Witkoff was offering advice to Moscow on how to win over Trump. Russian officials have also expressed confidence to the local press that Trump's team understands their demands.
“There is a possibility that the United States will betray Ukraine on the territory issue without clarity on security guarantees,” Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, said in a call between European leaders this week, according to a transcript obtained by Der Spiegel.
“They are playing games,” Friedrich Merz, Germany's chancellor, said of the Americans on the same call, “both with you and with us.”
In Ukraine, prominent analysts have questioned whether a peace plan that cedes territory would even be supported by soldiers and generals on the battlefield. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted to Trump that the country's territorial integrity, as well as future security guarantees, must be the cornerstones of a viable peace agreement.
But Trump could jeopardize Ukraine's ability to keep fighting if he finally loses patience, experts said.
“The United States still provides intelligence assistance, which is important, and until now has been willing to sell weapons to European countries for transfer to NATO,” said Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute for Global Affairs at Syracuse University.
The United States has already suspended direct aid to Ukraine's war effort and instead accepted a NATO deal that sells weapons and equipment to Europe that are in turn supplied to kyiv.
“If the United States stops even doing that (and it would be a pretty radical policy change if the United States is not willing to even sell weapons to European countries), then Europe will have to continue down the path it is already on, which is to strengthen its own defense production capacity,” Taylor said.
Macron, Merz and other European allies, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the king of England, have implored the president to remain firm in his support for Ukraine and to increase pressure on Moscow that they insist could ultimately change Putin's calculations over time.
European leaders are debating whether to deploy to kyiv some of the $220 billion in Russian assets, frozen in European banks since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, in the form of assistance, or whether to retain the funds as a point of future negotiations.
“If the Trump administration and the Europeans are willing to do it, it can put real pressure on a Russian military and economy that are under increasing pressure,” said Kyle Balzer, a scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “Russia's economic growth has taken a hard hit due to lower energy prices and Russia's increasing defense burden. And the Russian military is suffering casualties that the Russian people will not be able to ignore forever.”
Speaking to reporters this week, Trump said that approximately 7,000 Russian soldiers die weekly on the battlefield, a staggering number in modern warfare. Comparatively, over eight years of the US war in Iraq, fewer than 4,500 US soldiers died.
“Such pressure will only have a decisive impact if the Trump administration stops giving Putin hope that Russia can secure a favorable deal in exchange for deals that benefit American companies,” Balzer added. “The West must attack Russia's resolve and convince Putin that it cannot achieve its goals. Continuing to give Putin hope makes that an unlikely prospect.”
