For decades, Western Europe has largely spoken with one voice on the issue of Palestinian statehood. Now cracks are appearing in that consensus.
Ireland, Spain and Norway declared on Wednesday their intention to recognize the Palestinian state, starting next Tuesday. Previously, only seven of the 27 member states of the European Union had made such a pronouncement.
Norway is not a member of the bloc, but the announcements by Spain and Ireland will bring the number of EU countries that recognize the Palestinian state to a third of their membership.
While the often-fractious bloc is unlikely to act together on the issue, EU members Slovenia and Malta have signaled they could also extend recognition, and concerted lobbying efforts are underway in several others. member states, including Belgium.
“There is some momentum there,” said Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
Even as major Western powers refrain from acknowledging it, the round of announcements illustrates once again how the devastating war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas is complicating traditional Western alliances, both within the EU and in transatlantic ties.
Over the past two years, Washington and the EU have largely focused on presenting a united front on the war in Ukraine and the growing closeness between Russia and China. But Gaza has shaken up diplomatic priorities.
Analysts say Wednesday's announcements primarily point to fundamental disagreements among Western allies over whether recognizing a Palestinian state now – usually a prelude to establishing diplomatic relations – will spur or hinder the actual establishment of a future state.
The Biden administration supports the creation of a Palestinian state, existing side by side with Israel, but says recognition should be the result of political negotiations, a vision backed by key European partners including Britain, France and Germany.
But the question has nuances. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron ruled out recognizing a Palestinian state as long as Hamas remains in Gaza, but said it could happen in the context of ongoing peace negotiations.
And Germany, darkened by its perpetration of the Holocaust, supports a two-state solution but has meanwhile been unwilling to expand recognition of Palestinian statehood.
The terrible toll of the war in Gaza, where more than 35,000 Palestinians have died, has prompted some governments to support any measures they believe could set the conditions for a ceasefire.
“Recognition is a tangible step towards a viable political path leading to Palestinian self-determination,” said Hugh Lovatt, a senior member of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
But he said that without further measures, the recognitions risked being essentially symbolic.
“To have impact, recognition of Palestine must be accompanied by tangible measures to counter Israel's annexation and settlement of Palestinian territory, such as banning settlement products and financial services,” he said.
Differing views on recognition point to the ways in which European states' own histories may lead them down different foreign policy paths when it comes to the Middle East.
“Each country's history is different, it's very idiosyncratic,” said Elgindy, who directs the Middle East Institute's program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli affairs.
Ireland's prime minister, for example, specifically cited his country's long, traumatic struggle for independence from Britain, and the shadow of the decades-long spasm of sectarian violence known as the Troubles, which subsided with the peace agreements. on Good Friday in 1998.
“We know from our history what it means,” Simon Harris, the taoiseach, or prime minister, told reporters in Dublin. “A two-state solution is the only way out of generational cycles of violence, retaliation and resentment, where so many mistakes can never be turned into good.”
In making their announcements, the three governments (Ireland, Spain and Norway) took pains to express their support for Israel's existence and their disgust at the Hamas-led attack on October 7 that killed some 1,200 people and sparked war in Loop. Still, the recognition amounted to an unequivocal expression of dismay at the immense number of civilian casualties of the war.
“This recognition is not against anyone, it is not against the Israeli people,” said Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. He called it “an act in favor of peace, justice and moral coherence.”
Israel, however, was angered by the second international episode this week that deepened its wartime isolation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the awards a “reward for terrorism.”
The announcements came on the heels of Monday's news that the top prosecutor at the International Criminal Court was seeking arrest warrants for five senior Israeli and Hamas officials, including Netanyahu, for possible war crimes and crimes against humanity related to the current conflict.
Most Western European states accept the court's jurisdiction, although the United States and Israel do not.
The recognition announcements were welcomed by both Hamas and its rival, the Palestinian Authority. Israel, however, called its ambassadors in Ireland, Spain and Norway for consultations about the measure.
Recognition of Palestinian statehood has already been extended by at least 140 of around 190 countries represented at the United Nations, but Wednesday's push represents a push not seen in years in Europe.
Five of the EU's previous recognition announcements date back to 1988, along with Cyprus, which expanded recognition before joining the bloc. Sweden recognized a Palestinian state in 2014.
Since 2009, no substantial negotiations towards a Palestinian state have taken place. Both Norway and Spain were sites of peace initiatives from a generation ago: the Oslo agreements of the 1990s and the Madrid Conference of 1991.
With the war in Gaza now in its eighth month, the UN General Assembly this month approved Palestinian “rights and privileges” that were seen as a prelude to a possible vote to grant voting membership. Currently, the Palestinian Authority has observer status.
