Apple TV Plus has a problem: It's spending a huge amount of money on shows that no one watches. And when I say “a huge amount of money,” I mean exactly that: A new report from Bloomberg says Apple has spent more than $20 billion to capture just 0.2% of the US streaming audience.
Despite Apple’s massive spending on movies and shows, more people watch Netflix in a single day than Apple TV Plus in an entire month. And that’s one of the main reasons Apple, according to Bloomberg’s sources, is preparing for a strategy shift to make its streaming platform more sustainable — and, potentially, less exciting.
To take just one example, the drama of prestige Masters of the air It cost more than $250 million to make and was the only Apple TV Plus show to appear on this year’s Nielsen charts (the main source of US television ratings). However, it did draw a smaller audience than Netflix. House of NinjasAnd Apple's film ventures have also been disappointing: its critically acclaimed Martin Scorsese film, Killers of the Flower Moon It reportedly grossed $157 million worldwide, but cost $200 million to produce.
Apple's disappointing viewing and box office numbers are a real shame, because for viewers like me, Apple TV Plus is the new HBO.
It’s the only streaming service I’ve never canceled or complained about. Chances are, if I’m telling you about a shiny new show, it’s going to be one on Apple TV Plus. But you probably won’t be watching it. And that means the golden age of Apple TV Plus might be coming to an end. The future of Apple TV Plus, it seems, looks a lot like Netflix.
Why Apple TV Plus was the new HBO
I think some of the best shows available on any streaming platform are Apple Originals. For me, the standouts have been Breaking off and Slow horsesboth of which I am currently re-watching with my equally smitten teenager, as well as the delightfully silly but utterly engrossing For all humanitythe claustrophobic Silo and the surprisingly moving ContractionAnd I also loved the Colin Farrell show. Sugaralthough I suspect I was one of the few people who saw it.
Chances are, if I'm talking about a shiny new show, it's going to be one on Apple TV Plus.
What all of these programs have in common is that they are very expensive. Apple has earned a reputation for having generous budgets and spending a lot of money on talent.
That's a combination that means a lot of famous faces: Cate Blanchett in DisclaimerMeryl Street in ExtrapolationsTom Hanks in GreyhoundElizabeth Moss in Brilliant girlsNicole Kidman in RoarHarrison Ford in ContractionJennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon in The morning programJake Gyllenhaal in Presumed innocent…you get the idea.
Apple has built a reputation as the streaming service with the deep pockets, a place where creatives can make their dream projects with their dream casts, which would be great if they were also generating dream viewership numbers, but they're not.
As I’ve been finding out time and time again, when I tell people about a new Apple TV Plus show, they haven’t heard of it, and they haven’t considered subscribing to Apple TV Plus anyway. And, if I’m totally honest, some of the shows I mentioned in the paragraph above… I hadn’t heard of some of them either. I can’t help but think that if Apple had spent a little less on talent and a little more on marketing, more people would be watching their shows.
Of course, the fact that shows aren't a hit isn't just Apple TV Plus' problem. Netflix produces tons of content every day that most of us will skip over. But, and no disrespect to Netflix, much of that content is either made or bought on the cheap. And Apple TV Plus isn't exactly cheap right now: According to the Financial Times, every episode of Apple's shows is worth $1000. The morning program It costs more to make than the action-packed final episodes of game of Thrones.
What is the plan for Apple TV Plus now?
According to Bloomberg, Apple is now doing two things: it is considering licensing more Hollywood films to expand its catalog, and it is being much more careful about what it approves and how much it spends on it.
I can't help but think that if Apple had spent a little less on talent and a little more on marketing, more people would be watching their shows.
Bloomberg’s analysis shows that Apple is canceling shows faster than before: In 2019, the average number of seasons per show was 3.67, but that’s now down to 2.0, and the percentage of shows moving on to a third season is down from 100% in 2019 to just 22% today. That means Apple is operating much more like Netflix when it comes to greenlighting or choosing not to do successive seasons.
Even the most prestigious shows are feeling the impact. Base has already been delayed to keep it on budget and Apple has reportedly pressured producers to keep costs down; and future seasons of Breaking off Apparently they are far from certain because Apple wants guarantees on how much it will cost.
Apple is not short of money, but it still has to answer to investors: spending so much money for so little return is not sustainable even when Apple has such deep pockets.
Apple TV Plus is therefore likely to become more like Netflix and its rivals, even if that means sacrificing show quality for the sake of viewership. We've already seen signs of that with the addition of classic movies and the licensing of titles from major studios.
It will still have good shows, but maybe not as many. I should probably stop holding my breath waiting for a second season of Sugar.
