The only constant in sports (and life) is change. While consistency is key to a winning strategy, ups and downs in production often cannot be avoided.
Following the endless ups and downs over 40 games and almost four months can be a heady operation. However, segmenting the journey into weekly updates allows managers to live (and play) in the now.
That's exactly what my Risers and Fallers column aims to accomplish, as we use ESPN's metrics database for a deeper look at the numbers.
elevators
Chennedy Carter, guard, Chicago Sky (35.4% on roster, in ESPN leagues +3.2)
Carter, who was out of the league in 2023 and averaged less than 9 points per game in 2022, wasn't even on Fantasy's radar a month ago. A fight with Caitlin Clark put her in the sports media spotlight in early June, but the 25-year-old was seemingly unfazed, drawing attention to her for continually crushing herself on the court. After his first start of the season, Carter has averaged 14.6 points per game over the last five games, ranking 25th among all players during that span.
A big part of Carter's success has been his efficiency, as he has a career-high 52.5% field goal percentage in his first year with the Sky. He also has a knack for finding his way to the free throw line, making 2.6 free throws per game since June 1. With his minutes expected to approach 30 per game and his consistent contributions to the secondary categories (he's recorded a total of nine dimes and five steals over the last three games), Carter's fantasy stock is rising. Grab it while you can.
Aari McDonald, guard, Los Angeles Sparks (12.8% on roster, +6.4)
McDonald began the season fighting for playing time in a crowded Sparks backcourt, logging less than 20 minutes in each of his first five games. Since then, the California native has thrived off the bench, managing the second-most minutes (behind only Dearica Hamby) over the team's last five games (25.9 minutes per game). While Layshia Clarendon remains in the surprising lineup, the vet's minutes have been reduced with alarming success, allowing McDonald to shine.
McDonald, 25, has been consistent since receiving increased playing time, scoring between 14 and 16 points in each of his last four games. Her work as a facilitator has also benefited fantasy investors, as McDonald has led her team in assists with 4.2 per game since June 7. As a bench player, it's true that McDonald's ceiling is limited, but all signs seem to point to substantial usage going forward.
Falleros
Karlie Samuelson, forward, Washington Mystics (39.2% roster, -6.2)
I spoke loudly about Samuelson's great potential heading into this season, believing my own hype, and drafted her to my fantasy team. That hasn't exactly worked. While the 29-year-old has posted over 20 fantasy point submissions, her output has been mostly disappointing. The good news is that Samuelson has remained in the starting lineup and has averaged a career-high 28.8 minutes per game. Unfortunately, his numbers do not reflect his increase in playing time, as he is outside the top 50 players in terms of points per game (8.8).
Samuelson is second on her team in total field goals attempted, but she has only managed to make 42 of those 114 shots. Her 36.8% field goal percentage ranks No. 10 on the Mystics, suggesting a possible move down the depth chart. The former Stanford standout is coming off her first double-digit point total in four games (though only her fifth of the season) and has recorded at least one 3-point shot in every outing this year, so there's some room for optimism. Still, with inconsistent contributions to secondary categories and considerable inefficiency issues, Samuelson's ceiling has been woefully lowered.
Natasha Mack, forward, Phoenix Mercury (20.5% on roster, -8.8)
Mack opened the season promisingly, making his first career start during the Mercury's season opener in Las Vegas. The 26-year-old recorded nine more starts, averaging more than 20 minutes per game through the first three weeks of 2024.
However, once Brittney Griner returned from injury, Mack was relegated to the bench. In fact, Mack has logged exactly nine minutes in consecutive outings, while Griner has cleared 30 minutes in each of her last three contests. Mack's fantasy relevance appears tied to Griner's health, indicating a substantial pause for the time being. Fantasy managers can feel safe moving on from the Oklahoma State product until further notice.
Prop to see this week
Seattle Storm at Las Vegas Aces OVER 167.5 points.
Seattle and Las Vegas are expected to come in hot, after each team earned an “L” over the weekend. The teams are second and third, respectively, in the Western Conference (fourth and fifth overall), suggesting a very close matchup (5.5) on Wednesday. Both teams play fast and lead the league in pace, with Vegas posting 98.80 possessions per game and the Storm close behind with an average of 98.57 possessions. Given the offensive prowess of each team and with many baskets likely to be scored, a total of 170 points seems more likely than possible.
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