Bears vs. packers. Kendrick vs. Drake. Samantha against the rest of the SATC cast.
The rivalries are impressive.
The opportunity to watch evenly matched enemies fight passionately always gives chills and thrills. That enthusiasm grows as naturally as it does quickly, and often results in a flurry of adjacent activity. Whether it influences social trends, inspires t-shirt shops on Etsy, or sparks heated dinner table conversations, beef is good for business.
Recently, women's soccer has seen massive growth largely due to the passionate play of Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese. Viewership for the highly anticipated 2023 women's national championship rematch drew more than 16 million viewers at its peak. That's more attention than in any basketball game (college or professional) since the 2018 NBA Eastern Conference Finals (Cavaliers vs. Celtics). I guess we'll get to see you after all.
Boom moments in sports, those that stretch into the zeitgeist, pushing the boundaries of interest, don't materialize out of thin air. They require elite talent and commensurate investment. This is how acceptance occurs.
We're interested in seeing Clark break records because he dared to break them… and because a researcher bothered to follow the numbers.
We're intrigued by what Reese wore to the Met Gala because she has the ability to turn around and score 13 points in her second preseason game, and because a Vogue assistant had the good sense to put her on the guest list.
We wonder if Liberty can end the Ace's dominance because New York had the audacity to build a super team and because the ESPN BET bookmakers decided to post a futures prop.
This relationship is not adversarial like a rivalry, but it requires a similar back-and-forth to generate success. That's what makes ESPN's fantasy game so fun. By selecting a team, users get a connection to the players on their roster. Managers are exposed to personal journeys, narratives, and athletic feats that may not have been on their radars before.
The W has been alive with this energy and commitment long before the current rookie class leaned into NIL deals or gained a large following on social media. We know Caitlin Clark's name because Maya Moore played so hard. Through fantasy we can not only see the next generation share the field with their heroes, but we can also personally invest in a historic passing of the torch.
So are you ready? It's time to draft, edit, and overthink our way to new fandom and fun.
Caitlin ClarkG, Indiana Fever
If the pressure produces diamonds, then Clark will be frozen. There may not be a rookie playing any sport or entering any league for whom the bar is higher. For example, Caleb Williams currently has the lowest odds to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award (on ESPN BET) at +185. Meanwhile, Clark is the (mega) heavy favorite for WNBA ROY, with odds of -750. Both athletes broke college records, but Clark's dominance not only hints at professional prosperity, it demands nothing more than excellence.
So are we being realistic in our expectations? Can Clark finish among the top 10 fantasy producers in her rookie effort?
Well, let's delve into that historic college career. During her time at Iowa, Clark became the first player in Division I history (men's or women's) to reach 3,000 points. and 1,000 assists. His penchant for handing out dimes could provide him with immediate value. Clark averaged 8.2 APG (assists per game) as a Hawkeye. Interestingly, Ticha Penicheiro holds the record for highest APG recorded by a rookie in a WNBA season with 7.5 APG (1998). However, a regression from the college game to the professional game is expected. The Fever have achieved an average of at least 5 APG in three different instances (Julie Allemand in 2020 and Erica Wheeler in 2019 and 2023).
Clark's scoring could take time to translate to the next level. Only three players in WNBA history (A'ja Wilson, Seimone Augustus and Cynthia Cooper) have recorded 20 points per game in their freshman campaigns. Tamika Catchings holds the Fever rookie record for points per game in a season with 18.6 (2002). Additionally, Clark will share the court with Aliyah Boston, Kelsey Mitchell and NaLyssa Smith. She may be on the court for 30 minutes a game, but she's not going to take all the shots.
ESPN's fantasy game awards one fantasy point for every point, three-point shot made, and assist. So while Clark's talent as a long-range shooter is the most talked-about part of her game, it's her ability to shine as a facilitator that will drive her fantasy production. A top-10 finish seems high, but an average of 30 fantasy points per game seems within reason.
Alyssa Thomas, F, Connecticut Sun
Thomas put in a Herculean effort, finishing second in MVP voting and leading the Sun into a Jonquel Jones-less era last year. The Maryland product posted a career-best campaign, ranking among the league's top three producers in rebounds per game (9.9), assists per game (7.9) and steals per outing (1.8). She became the first player to finish as the WNBA leader in both total assists and total rebounds in a season. Additionally, Thomas recorded a league record 28 double-doubles and 6 triple-doubles. Her effectiveness in so many areas resulted in a top-five finish for fantasy managers.
What Thomas accomplished a decade into his professional career was nothing short of remarkable. It's worth noting, however, that Connecticut lost Brionna Jones to a ruptured Achilles tendon 13 games into the season. Jones has been active in training camp and logged 10 minutes in the team's preseason action against Liberty. While he may be on a slight minutes restriction in May, Jones is assumed to have made a full recovery. His return should require less of Thomas and result in a slight reduction in playing time. Therefore, it is unrealistic to expect the 32-year-old striker to finish in the top five again.
Nneka Ogwumike, F, Seattle Storm
Ogwumike, 33, has been killing it on the court since entering the league in 2012. An eight-time All-Star, he shows no signs of slowing down. That's a good thing for the Storm, a team he will join after spending the entirety of his 12-year career in Los Angeles with the Sparks.
And Ogwumike made the final season count, too. He is coming off one of the most productive seasons of his career, posting numbers that rival his MVP bid in 2016. He is averaging 19.1 points per game (No. 6 overall), 8.8 rebounds per game (No. 6 overall) and 2.7 assists per outing, Ogwumike emerged as the eighth most productive player in Fantasy.
Although 2023 was on the rise, it is not an atypical campaign. Ogwumike has thrived as a model of consistency, posting a 50+ field goal percentage for 12 consecutive seasons. In fact, the legendary Sylvia Fowles is the only other player in WNBA history to hit 50% of her shots in more seasons (15). Ogwumike's body of work suggests that she will continue to shake and collect boards until she reaches the top 15 in fantasy.
Marina Mabrey, G, Chicago Sky
Mabrey emerged as one of the trendy sleep options last spring. The Notre Dame product, coming off a career with the Wings, was expected to maintain a prominent role in the Sky's rebuild. Mabrey delivered, averaging (new) career highs in points per game (15.0) and three-point shots (2.3). As a result, she earned a total of 1000 Fantasy points and finished as the 25th most productive Fantasy player.
The rise does not appear to have peaked either. Consistency, particularly from beyond the arc, has been a hallmark of Mabrey. In fact, she is one of four players who has made at least 60 three-pointers in each of her last three seasons. Additionally, Mabrey's points per game have increased each season, going from 4.0 in 2019 to 15.0 in 2023.
The departures of Kahleah Copper (traded to Mercury) and Courtney Williams (signed to Lynx) and the subsequent arrivals of Reese and Kamilla Cardoso should not have a negative effect on Mabrey's production. Rather, the rookies' presence could allow for more defensive rebounds and fast breaks, boosting the team's pace of play (the Sky were the fifth-slowest team in 2023) and Mabrey's efficiency. Consider the 27-year-old a solid fifth-round pick (six-team league) for fantasy purposes.
Kelsey Plum, G, Las Vegas Aces
Plum materialized as one of the league's brightest stars after achieving great success in 2022. As such, expectations were understandably high heading into last spring. Plum's numbers regressed, however, as the Washington product's points per game decreased from 20.2 to 18.7 points per game. As a result, Fantasy investors anticipating another top-five finish appear to have cooled on the two-time All-Star, allowing Plum to fall to the third round of most drafts. However, that seems like a knee-jerk reaction.
While Plum's numbers fell, he actually posted the most efficient season of his six-year career. The 29-year-old shot 48% from the field and averaged a career-high 1.1 SPG. Additionally, Plum racked up 16 20-point games last year, giving him a total of 35 such games over the past two seasons. For context, that's the fifth-most 20-plus point outings by any WNBA player during that span. Finally, Plum's accuracy from downtown continued to dazzle, as he hit at least 95 three-pointers in consecutive efforts.
Heading into a contract year on a team poised to make history with a potential three-peat, Plum hopes to continue being a key producer. His proven ability as a dynamic long-range shooter offers fantasy managers time-tested advantages. He may not improve his 2022 stats, but he'll likely flirt with them, projecting as a top-10 fantasy option.
Follow Liz on social media: @LizLoza_FF
