NEW YORK — Another day, another stunning upset at the U.S. Open.
Just 24 hours after Carlos Alcaraz suffered his first elimination of the tournament, defending champion and second seed Novak Djokovic lost to 28th seed Alexei Popyrin 6-4, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 in the third round on the same court.
In Friday's match at Arthur Ashe Stadium, few thought the 25-year-old Australian had any chance of beating Djokovic, who was bidding to make history with a record 25th Grand Slam title and was fresh off of winning Olympic gold in Paris. They had met twice in Grand Slams this season (the Australian Open and Wimbledon) and Popyrin had failed to win either match.
But Friday was different.
Perhaps still riding the momentum of winning his first Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open earlier this month, and buoyed by his 50 winners on the night and Djokovic's poor serve, Popyrin played the best match of his career.
“It's amazing because I've been to the third round about 15 times and I haven't been able to make it to the fourth,” Popyrin said on court after the match. “To be able to do it against the best of all time is amazing. It's a great feeling and the hard work paid off.”
Djokovic, who underwent knee surgery in June, later described his performance as “awful” and said he had played “some of the worst tennis” he had ever played. The 37-year-old admitted he was feeling exhausted after a busy summer schedule, which saw multiple surfaces changed.
“I spent a lot of energy to win gold and I came to New York not feeling fresh physically and mentally,” Djokovic said. “But because it's the US Open, I tried and did my best. I didn't have any physical problems. I just felt out of energy, and that showed in the way I played.”
Djokovic officially concluded his Grand Slam season without a title for the first time since 2017. It is the first season in which a member of the Big Three (Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer) has not won a major trophy since 2002.
And the tournament is now the only Grand Slam not to feature the second or third seeded men in the round of 16 in more than 22 years.
Needless to say, it's been a surprising first week in Queens and, with two of the favourites now eliminated, the men's title is up for grabs. So who has the best chance of hoisting the trophy as Day 6 begins? Given the way this tournament has started, predictions could be very tricky, but we'll give it a go anyway. (And yes, we recognise that the players in the top half of the draw have yet to play their third-round matches.)
Next fight: Third round against Christopher O'Connell (Saturday)
The world number one was considered one of the pre-tournament favourites alongside Alcaraz and Djokovic but the announcement of his two positive tests for a banned substance in March resulted in intense scrutiny and it was unclear how he would fare considering the circumstances. Sinner, 23, lost the first set of his first-round match against Mackenzie McDonald but has otherwise reached the third round without any problems and his play has been largely unaffected by the off-court rumours.
Sinner has never made it past the quarterfinals in New York, but he is the reigning Australian Open champion and took the title in Cincinnati earlier this month in his final pre-season event. He is one of the best players currently playing on hard courts and is capable of beating anyone left in the draw.
Coming up: Third round against No. 31 Flavio Cobolli (Saturday)
The only US Open champion left in the draw, the 2021 victor came into the tournament a little more under the radar after lackluster results in both Montreal and Cincinnati and not winning a title all season. The fan favourite has dropped just one set en route to the third round, however, and should get past Cobolli in their first career meeting. Nuno Borges or Jakub Mensik would await him in the round of 16.
Medvedev, 28, will likely face Sinner in the quarter-finals and it is hard to imagine anyone having a better chance of upsetting the world number one than Medvedev. A three-time US Open finalist, he certainly has experience on his side and shines under the Ashe lights and in front of a raucous crowd.
The winner of that presumed match would immediately become the favorite for the rest of the tournament.
Next fight: Round 4 vs. #28 Alexei Popyrin (Sunday)
As you've probably heard countless times, no American has won a major title since the 2003 US Open. But did you see what Tiafoe did against fellow American Ben Shelton in the third round on Friday? After needing five sets and more than four hours, Tiafoe dug deep and found an answer to Shelton's powerful serve. By the end of the match, the 26-year-old had become the first American since Andre Agassi (2001-2005) to reach the round of 16 of the tournament in five consecutive seasons.
Tiafoe is an electrifying player who shines in front of the biggest crowds and on the biggest stages. He is one of the most beloved players in New York and will have the fans firmly behind him in every match he plays. He has made it clear that the US Open is his top priority, even skipping the Olympics this summer to better prepare for the surface. He reached the final in Cincinnati and reached the US Open semifinals in 2022. Now that Djokovic is no longer in the way, Tiafoe’s path to the quarterfinals (and beyond) just got significantly easier and there is perhaps no one who wants it more. When asked if an American could end the drought at the tournament, he called it a “kind of ‘Why not?'” So why not Tiafoe?
Next fight: Round 4 vs. No. 8 Casper Ruud (Sunday)
Let's start with the obvious: Ruud, the 2022 US Open finalist, will not be an easy opponent and that match could go either way. But, like Tiafoe, Fritz will have the support of the home crowd on his side and the extra motivation of wanting to break the streak without winning a Grand Slam, something that, as he has already said, motivates him.
And that’s not to mention that he’s had an incredible season and a strong first-week showing. He’s now reached the round of 16 at every major this year (becoming the first American since Agassi to do so in a single season) and won two titles in 2024, as well as claiming Olympic bronze in doubles. Fritz, 26, hasn’t dropped a set in three matches and had a particularly impressive second-round win over former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini. He’s reached the quarterfinals of four majors in his career, including the 2023 US Open, but has never advanced beyond the round. To quote Tiafoe, whom Fritz could play in the semifinals, “Why not?”
Next fight: Fourth round vs. No. 9 Grigor Dimitrov (Sunday)
There were several men in contention for the latter spot, including Popyrin, Ruud, Dimitrov and American Tommy Paul, but in the end Rublev prevailed. After a somewhat disconcerting season, the 26-year-old finally appears to be back on track and has been playing some high-quality tennis on the surface this summer. He advanced to the final in Montreal and the quarter-finals in Cincinnati, and has found ways to win in New York despite some difficulties.
Although he won his opening match and his third-round match in straight sets, he fell behind two sets in the second round against Arthur Rinderknecht. But Rublev rallied and clawed his way to victory. It was only his second career win after trailing by two sets, and his first in nearly four years. Rublev, who has reached the quarterfinals at 10 major tournaments, including four times at the US Open, has never escaped the quarterfinals.
If he can get past a resurgent Dimitrov on Sunday, the Tiafoe-Popyrin winner is waiting for him. It seems likely that he will at some point find a way to advance to the semi-finals (or beyond) and perhaps he can recognise that this is his best chance yet and take it.
