ATLANTA — In August, Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank said he would be disappointed if his team wasn’t more competitive in 2023 and didn’t show improvement. What Blank saw throughout the season was too much of the same.
So Blank decided to make a change, firing coach Arthur Smith after three seasons on Sunday night following a 48-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints with a playoff spot on the line.
It was a somewhat quick turnaround for the typically patient Blank, who gave Jim Mora Jr. three seasons, Mike Smith seven years and Dan Quinn more than five years. The difference is that all three of those coaches made the playoffs in their first or second year as a head coach.
While Arthur Smith’s situation was different than his three predecessors when he took over due to salary cap limitations, he also did not finish a season with a winning record or make the postseason. So Atlanta is now embarking on a coaching search.
Why fire Smith?
The only thing the Falcons were during Smith’s tenure was inconsistent. Atlanta never won more than two games in a row under Smith, and in his final two seasons he had at least one three-game losing streak.
After the Falcons snapped a three-game losing streak in December by beating the New Orleans Saints, Smith was asked how to keep the energy up. In a way, he summed up his mandate in the process.
“Consistency, sure,” Smith said. “That’s the biggest challenge week in and week out. For us to take the next step, we have to. Be consistent and play with the same focus and energy over the last week.”
And a lot of it comes down to quarterback play. Smith had four starting quarterbacks in his three seasons: Matt Ryan in 2021, Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder in 2022 and then Ridder and Taylor Heinicke this season. Perhaps it was the decision to go with Ridder, and then Ridder’s propensity for turnovers and critical errors, that ultimately killed Smith.
Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot were hired into an unenviable salary situation and spent two offseasons cleaning it up. This season was the first in which Smith had a roster made up primarily of players he and Fontenot sought. The improvement did not show in the record or as a quarterback.
Smith’s decisions and decisions were also suspect at times. Against the Carolina Panthers in Week 15, he opted for a game plan that was too conservative against a Panthers team that had only one win. It was a decision that influenced Atlanta’s 9-7 loss to the Panthers and put their playoff hopes in jeopardy.
Atlanta had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and couldn’t take advantage of it. The Falcons lost to the Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, Washington Commanders and Tennessee Titans, all teams that finished in the bottom 10.
“When you look at that, there have been instances in games where we’ve obviously looked good,” offensive coordinator Dave Ragone said. “And there have been times when we’ve had problems.”
On offense, eliminating turnovers and improving third-down conversion rates were areas Ragone noted as inconsistent; The Falcons were tied for 24th with 28 turnovers and 13th with a 40% third-down success rate.
What is the pulse of the locker room?
Falcons players seemed to genuinely enjoy playing for Smith and often had his back when questions about his job arose late in the season. There was a consensus that they appreciated how he handled them as players and also how he handled responsibility.
“I believe in what he represents and what we’re trying to do here,” left tackle Jake Matthews said Dec. 17. “And I am absolutely convinced.”
After the crushing loss to the Saints in the season finale, they still stood behind their coach. Several players expressed that the problems were not with the coaching staff and that they expected the staff to return in 2024.
The concept of shared responsibility, which Smith often preached to his team and publicly, carried a lot of weight among the players. The locker room remained united until the last days. Smith even joined the players in a brief shootaround on a basketball hoop in the locker room after the final day of practice.
“Coach Smith is the best coach I’ve ever had,” right guard Chris Lindstrom told ESPN on Sunday. “I absolutely love him, and I think this group and this team love him too.”
While money also helps attract free agents, Atlanta was able to land coveted players such as safety Jessie Bates III and defensive lineman Calais Campbell this offseason in part because they believed in what Smith was trying to build.
So why didn’t it work?
It starts with the quarterback.
Ridder became a starter in 2023 after a four-game stint at the end of the 2022 season. He showed flashes of potential marred by clumsiness issues and ill-timed interceptions, which ultimately led to a change of direction between Ridder and Heinicke, who had experience as a starter in Washington.
While quarterback was the primary issue (along with defensive issues in Smith’s first two seasons that were largely remedied by the hiring of defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen and an improvement in personnel last offseason), there were other factors in the offense.
For every well-designed and innovative play Smith planned, for example, there was a decision to run in a third-and-long situation or give the ball to someone other than one of his stars in critical situations.
But Smith’s failed tenure comes down to problems at quarterback.
What’s next as a quarterback?
The new coach will dictate that, but it seems clear that Ridder and Heinicke are not the answer.
While Ridder showed flashes of success, he turned the ball over too often to be an effective starter, including in the season finale when he was reinserted as a starter after an ankle injury to Heinicke and had two turnovers in the second half. : an interception. and a lost fumble. His decision making, at times, was disconcerting to her. Ridder threw an interception in the end zone against Washington, a fumble across the goal line against Tampa Bay and a red zone interception against Carolina; two of those three games ended in losses.
Ridder finished the season completing 64.2% of his passes for 2,836 yards, 12 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 12 fumbles. Heinicke had a 54.4% completion rate for 890 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions.
One question for the new coach will be whether Ridder and/or Heinicke should remain in the team as substitutes. Heinicke has one more season left on his contract and a $9 million cap hit in 2024. Ridder has two years left on his rookie deal. But it would be hard to imagine any coach sticking with Ridder as a starter.
Whether Atlanta pursues a veteran starter or selects a rookie in the upcoming draft could depend on the next head coach and offensive coordinator. A rookie might require a trade up in the draft, but the Falcons have cap space to spend. The problem could be who is available. Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill are the top quarterbacks slated to be free agents.
Who could Atlanta target as its next coach?
Teams often act opposite of what they did before, so a candidate with prior head coaching experience could be what Blank and Fontenot are looking for. But this might not be the most attractive year for that, especially since former Detroit Lions and Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Caldwell said last year that he was no longer pursuing head coaching vacancies (it could have been a sensible choice).
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh would be an obvious choice as he has won everywhere he has coached in college and the NFL. While Bill Belichick is 71 years old and has lost seasons in three of his last four years, he is still one of the greatest coaches of all time and would be worth a call if he and the New England Patriots part ways.
Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson could make a lot of sense with the fact that Atlanta’s offensive playmakers are similar to the Lions’: No. 1 receiver (Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Drake London of Atlanta), the No. 1 tight end (Sam LaPorta against Kyle Pitts) and running back (David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs against Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson).
If the Las Vegas Raiders decide not to retain interim head coach Antonio Pierce, he would be someone worth interviewing and taking a closer look at due to his performance this season.
No matter who Atlanta targets, their head coaching position should be an attractive job due to the team’s offensive talent, reasonable cap space, and young players on defense. Additionally, the new coach will not be tied to any starting quarterback.
