Why Atlético can beat Barcelona and Real Madrid for the LaLiga title


I can't believe I'm about to do this, especially two months before the actual date of February 2nd, but I'm embarking on my own Groundhog Day and arguing, once again, completely against my better judgment. that Atlético de Madrid has a great opportunity to become LaLiga champion in May.

Groundhog Day is that curious North American tradition according to which if the most famous groundhog in the world, Punxsutawney Phil, emerges from his lair on the second day of February and sees his own shadow then winter is going to lengthen, but if it is not well, then We will have an early mild spring.

But in the 1993 film of the same name, starring the mighty Bill Murray, its arrogant main character, the meteorologist, experienced the same day over and over again until he learned humility and found love, hence the expression “Day of the Groundhog” is now also used to express that feeling of being trapped in a repetitive cycle.

This is precisely where my analytical acumen and deeply cynical pessimism collide: regardless of my belief that Atléti coach Diego “Cholo” Simeone possesses so many unwanted tics, flaws and tinkering instincts that The Colchoneros They will need to succeed in spite of him, rather than because of him, I cannot resist arguing that it is possible that, fair He could have his best opportunity since becoming Spanish champion in 2021.

Atléti have the best squad in Spain, possibly in Europe, and that their two main rivals, Real Madrid and Barcelona, ​​are vulnerable, is precisely what I thought at the beginning of this season, but I refrained from writing due to my phobia to Simeone.

Out of consideration for those who have followed my strong opinions about the 54-year-old manager who has just managed his 701st Atlético game and who has won more trophies than any manager in the club's history, I will be concise in my criticism of him.

I think he has relaxed, if not completely undermined, his personal standards of the “take on the world” hungry coach he once was. I think they fell specifically after he signed his last contract extension in November 2023. I think Simeone is too confident in the fact that his consistent ability to keep Atléti in the Champions League brings huge income to the club and makes them untouchable . I think he often confuses and uninspires his players.

I think your training does not correct existing defects. I think his director of football, Andrea Berta, has constantly rescued him, signing excellent players who, regardless of whether his coach is working at the same level as in his first 10 years in charge, means that Atléti will be there. or thereabouts.

Don't take my word for Simeone's failings; use your own words as evidence. On one of the few occasions last season, with his team playing poorly and losing (usually away from home), the Argentine said: “It's the coach's fault, I'm going to have to work harder and better.” After which little or nothing changed, but the media had its mea culpa and left him alone.

During the summer of 2023, he said: “Halfway through last season, parts of the team were out of rhythm, there was no identity, no clarity, no enough commitment. It seemed like we were on the road to the end of an era. “No. I'm stupid, I could see, like all of you, that we were playing badly, that there was insecurity; “It was the worst part of my 11 years in charge.”

Then, last season, Simeone's Atléti was not only the only team, in all of Europe, to defeat Madrid, but they did it twice (in LaLiga and in the Copa del Rey). Still, they managed to win nothing and finish 19 points behind Carlo Ancelotti's Spanish champions. The definition of poor performance.

This season, during a period from August to October in which Atléti won only twice in eight games, while they were absolutely humiliated 7-1 on aggregate by Benfica in Lisbon and Lille in Madrid, I must admit that I thought It had been prudent not to be seduced by the quality of the squad formation that Berta achieved last summer.

During those long, embarrassing weeks, Simeone's team often seemed lacking in creativity, communication, commitment, coherence and certainly lacking in title chances.

After one of the disappointing results, losing two points at Real Sociedad despite having been leading for 83 minutes, the news reached my ears that Simeone had planned a specific set of tactics all week before the match, he had trained his players according to those specific orders and then, on the morning of the game, he woke up with a bad feeling, nothing more than a whim, ruined the plans and changed course for no reason, leaving his usual players shrugging and saying “typical Cholo”, but leaving the confused and annoyed newbies thinking: “What the hell did I sign up for?”

Unfortunately, this type of behavior is not just a common possibility week after week for this unusual man: he has too often been affected by this type of useless compulsion during matches, all to the detriment of the identity, cohesion and identity of your team. unity and reliability.

So, I admit, you would be within your rights to ask why I am also changing course and point out that, while I remain a confirmed Simeone cynic, I believe Atléti have earned the right to be talked about as a contender. to the title. Basically, this is a stubborn fool who, when given new information, refuses to adapt and update his ideas. Therefore: here it goes.

The first point is that this is shaping up to be a title fight during which the two leading candidates are vulnerable. Barcelona is still under construction and seems incapable of winning without Lamine Yamal, and its captain and goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen will not play again this season.

Madrid, who lost Toni Kroos to retirement and saw Nacho and Joselu depart, will be without Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão for around a year, and while their injury list stubbornly refuses to diminish, the conundrum over how to restore form of Kylian Mbappé persists.

Both teams have played extremely strangely and unimpressively lately; Meanwhile, Atléti is clicking. It's a pleasure to see you again.

Even without the immensely important Robin Le Normand, from Real Sociedad, Simeone's team has by far the best defensive record in LaLiga. Key forward Alexander Sørloth has six goals and two assists, a goal every 86 minutes. He and Simeone have overcome a working relationship that had difficult beginnings.

World Cup winner Julián Álvarez (signed for big money from Manchester City and currently sorely missed by the English champions) is behind Sørloth in LaLiga but, in total, has 10 goals and two assists. Best of all, he is acting with the greatest security and self-confidence of his entire career.

A best XI, or close to it, is slowly emerging. There are two good players for each position (except perhaps if Jan Oblak were out for a long time), Simeone is behaving more consistently, cutting and changing formation during matches much less frequently, and then there is the exciting emergence of his son. Julian.

Simeone's youngest son has all the competitive aggression of his brilliant father, three times the pace and a brilliant connection with the rabid fans at Atléti's Metropolitan stadium who crave excitement, verve, emotion and to see someone on the field who represents their values. That's Giuliano.

Twenty-two in a couple of weeks, he's back after spells on loan at Zaragoza and Alavés, and is increasingly a first-choice player, not a hint of nepotism in sight from a guy who is a transformative influence on the energy , the verticality, Creativity and fun with which Atléti plays.

Before the midweek LaLiga matches, The Colchoneros They are two points from the top of the table and, in the Champions League, one point from the top eight. Best of all, at least for the moment, until the trophies are handed out in six months, Simeone's team has suddenly become a lot of fun to watch again.

Personally, I remain deeply skeptical about this complex but compelling Argentine coach. However, there is a chance, however small, that this is the season in which the Barça-Madrid hegemony could be threatened… or even broken.

Let's check back on February 2 and see if Groundhog Day is going to predict an early, sunny spring for Atléti… or the same old sinking feeling of a long, dark winter for your beloved columnist because Simeone ruined it all over again. .

scroll to top