The group stage of the African Cup of Nations has been an exciting journey so far, with many goals, several surprise results and numerous standout performances.
However, with many of the teams able to take points off each other, and only one team eliminated so far, there is still a lot at stake heading into the final round of group play.
Here, ESPN has delved into the permutations of the final round of the AFCON, outlining what each team needs to avoid elimination… and advance to the knockouts.
Group A
Guinea-Bissau occupies the last place in the group and, after losing both matches, is the only team already eliminated from the Nations Cup. This leaves a three-way battle for progression, with all sides hoping to advance, as four of the six best third-place finishers will advance.
Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria have four points, and while the former have a superior goal difference (+2 vs +1), the Super Eagles have an easier task when they face Guinea-Bissau at the Felix Houphouet Boigny stadium. .
“We must take first place,” Nigeria coach José Peseiro said in his pre-match press conference, “and to achieve this, we must fight. We must do whatever it takes to accomplish our mission.” [on Monday]”.
Meanwhile, the Equatorial Guineans will have to face the hosts in the capital. Draws for both Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria would allow them to qualify, and the Super Eagles need to improve on the Central Africans' result or equal their result but improve their goal difference to be able to top the group.
The Ivorians could still achieve their main goal of topping the group and remaining at the Alassane Ouattara Stadium if they win and Nigeria fail to beat Guinea-Bissau.
Heading into matchday three, the Ivorians currently lead the table of the best third-placed teams, with three points, and would need a disastrous defeat to really find themselves in danger of being eliminated in the first round.
B Group
Cape Verde, the surprise of the tournament so far, has not only secured qualification after two matches, but has already secured its position as group winners. They will now face the third placed team from Group A, C or D in Abidjan on January 29.
Egypt, in second position with two points, will advance with a win, and could also take second place with a draw if Ghana vs Mozambique also finish with one point each.
The Pharaohs will have to do without Mohamed Salah, who will miss at least two games due to a hamstring injury.
“I'm not speculating about what will happen after the game against Cape Verde,” Egypt coach Rui Vitoria said in his press conference. “Our concentration is solely on this match, I am fully aware that we are facing a formidable opponent.”
Mozambique, currently last with a point, could leapfrog both group giants into second place if they beat Ghana and Egypt fail to beat Cape Verde, although Os Mambas were completely outplayed in their second match, a 3-3 loss. 0 against the islanders.
For Ghana, a draw would not be enough to move above Egypt unless Cape Verde defeats the Pharaohs, while a win would still leave them in third place if the North Africans also win.
In this case, the Black Stars would hope to progress as one of the best third-placed teams. Since the AFCON was expanded, no third-place finisher has managed to advance with four points or more.
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Group C
Back-to-back victories have taken Senegal to the round of 16 and they will secure first place if they avoid defeat, regardless of the result between Cameroon and Gambia.
Guinea (four points) would overtake Senegal and move into first place with a win, while even a draw would ensure their move to second place, regardless of the result of the other match.
Cameroon have had a slow start to the Nations Cup, picking up just one point from their first two matches, including a miserable 3-1 loss to Senegal in Yamoussoukro.
However, it is not all doom and gloom for Rigobert Song and Samuel Eto'o, who still have some control over their destiny. Beat Gambia and their four-point tally should be enough to qualify them for at least third place, while the Lions could even overtake Guinea on goal difference (currently with a three-goal deficit), if Cameroon and Senegal win.
The best Gambia can hope for is to move into third place. To do so, they would need to defeat Cameroon, improve their goal difference of -4 and hope that the results in other groups favor them. Even if progression overtakes them, Tom Saintfiet's team will surely be determined to end a testing campaign with a big victory.
Group D
Angola and Burkina Faso are tied on four points and with a goal difference of +1 heading into their final match, where the winner secures first place in the group. A draw would be a mutually beneficial result for both, almost certainly allowing them to qualify, while Algeria could also finish the campaign with five points if they beat Mauritania.
This could lead to a situation where all three teams finish the campaign with five points, and although the trio would likely advance, the order would be decided by the number of goals scored in matches between the teams; Currently, Angola is at a disadvantage. .
A draw for Algeria against Mauritania would leave them in third place. Three points and a neutral goal difference would have been enough for them to advance in the last two tournaments.
For Mauritania, things seem difficult. The Mourabitounes, like Gambia, need to win, reduce an unhealthy goal difference and keep their fingers crossed that results in other groups allow them to sneak in as one of the highest-ranked third-placed teams.
Group E
Namibia's opening 1-0 win over Tunisia has really blown this group wide open, and either team is still theoretically capable of topping the group.
Mali, which is already guaranteed one of the first three positions, is in control with four points. They advance as group winners with a victory over Namibia, which was eliminated 4-0 by South Africa on Sunday.
Even a draw would leave Mali in one of the top two positions, although South Africa could overtake them for first place with a victory over Tunisia. Namibia could still finish their campaign top of the group if they beat Mali and if South Africa fail to beat Tunisia.
The Carthage Eagles were favorites to win the group at the start of the campaign, but with one point from their first two matches, they are in line for an early exit.
At least it's easy for Tunisia, they only stay alive with a win over an in-form Bafana team, and even that would leave them progressing only as one of the best third-placed teams if Namibia avoid defeat against Mali.
To put it in context, Tunisia have qualified for the last 16 tournaments and have only failed to reach the round of 16 on four previous occasions.
Group F
Morocco started their campaign strongly with a 3-0 win over Tanzania, but their progress was slowed by failing to defeat the Democratic Republic of the Congo in their second match, with the two drawing 1-1.
However, Morocco is in first place, guaranteed a top-three spot, and will advance if it avoids defeat against Zambia. Even with a loss, they would almost certainly progress, even if it meant dropping to third place. Given their healthy goal difference, even this scenario could only happen if both Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo win.
The Leopards and Zambia have two points, with an identical record and head-to-head record, meaning identical results in their matches would lead to a draw to see who finishes in second and third place respectively.
Tanzania's inability to finish their match against Zambia (they led with two minutes remaining) has cost them dearly, leaving them at the bottom of the group with one point heading into their final group match.
However, the Taifa Stars could advance to second place if they achieve their first AFCON victory and the Congolese fail to beat Morocco.
