Saturday's Top 10 matchup slate not only offered a chance to watch some of the most exciting basketball we've seen this season, but it was also a chance to answer some questions. In the ACC, North Carolina had soared heading into its meeting with rival Duke, and then lost at Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils have a projected lottery pick (Kyle Filipowski) and a fleet of five-star prospects, but Jon Scheyer's team hadn't beaten many elite teams while preparing for the Tar Heels. Which team would prove something on Saturday?
Houston was on a five-game winning streak. But could they stop Kansas if the Jayhawks got hot in Allen Fieldhouse? Will Johnny Furphy's breaking streak continue for Kansas? Could Dalton Knecht deliver another strong performance in his pursuit of Zach Edey and the Wooden Award? And would Kentucky really play defense?
By the end of Saturday night, we had some answers.
ESPN's Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello and Joe Lunardi have broken down the three big top 10 matchups and have some ideas.
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Filipowski and Ingram get testy in Duke-UNC matchup
Tempers flare as Duke and North Carolina try to help their teammates off the court.
Medical calf: Hubert Davis has not been shy about praising Stanford recruit Harrison Ingram (21 points, 5 of 9 from 3-point range, 13 rebounds, 4 steals) for his poise, impact and leadership. On Saturday he played as the third star of a team with national title ambitions. With RJ Davis (5 of 14) struggling, Ingram put together one of the most impressive efforts of the weekend and strengthened the idea that the Tar Heels could reach their second Final Four in three years. For everything Ingram did on offense, he was also disruptive to a group that turned Duke (5 of 19 from 3-point range) into a poor 3-point shooting team (the Blue Devils had shot 39 percent of his shots). from beyond the arc entering the game). In Armando Bacot and Davis, the Tar Heels have a pair of legitimate elite talents. But Ingram's best game of the year came in the biggest game of the year. And that's a promising sign for Davis' rotation and Ingram's future contributions for a team with national title dreams.
Borzello: Armando Bacot has taken a backseat offensively this season to RJ Davis, which is admirable in some ways, but Hubert Davis expressed earlier this week the need for Bacot to return to the level of production he had earlier in his career for Carolina to reach her maximum level. full potential. After averaging 6.3 points and 6.7 rebounds in his last three games, Bacot looked dominant against Duke. He finished with 25 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists. Carolina made a concerted effort to get him touches in good spots in the post and Bacot was able to go to work early and often. He was also active on the offensive glass and rarely forced the offense when Duke was able to double-team him on the block. Davis has arguably been the best point guard in the country this season, but Bacot gives Carolina a physicality and post presence that very few teams can match on the interior. When he plays like he did tonight, he brings a different dimension to the Tar Heels' offense.
The impact of Joe Lunardi's bracket: North Carolina firmly asserted its status as the number one seed. The Tar Heels remain fourth among the top line of the projected group, but took a big step toward collecting what would be the ACC's first No. 1 seed in five years. Perhaps most importantly, Carolina is now very likely to open its NCAA Tournament, regardless of the seeding in nearby Charlotte. ACC teams have frequently enjoyed this huge state advantage over the years. Duke, on the other hand, continues to live in the 3/4 seed range, but could obviously improve that with a win in the teams' rematch next month.
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Kansas fans go crazy after this Kevin McCullar Jr. sequence.
Kevin McCullar Jr. gets a steal and hits a grand slam to put Kansas up 15 over Houston.
Myron Medcalf: During the five-game winning streak they enjoyed before their loss at Kansas on Saturday, Houston had been a dangerous defensive team that had limited opponents to 44 percent inside the 3-point line. But it was also worth considering the other side of that success: The Cougars had gone cold. During those five games, Houston was a sub-300 team shooting 44 percent inside the 3-point line on offense. They ended up shooting 16 of 40 (40 percent) in their loss to the Jayhawks, who made 78 percent of their three-pointers. Kansas made nearly 70 percent of its field goal attempts. The best defensive team in the United States could not stop Bill Self's team. But they couldn't keep up with that offensive bombardment either. And that has quietly been a subplot for this Houston team. Can Houston win it all? That will depend on his ability to not only defend a hot team but also match it.
Jeff Borzello: Kansas was off the ball offensively on Saturday, but it's been Johnny Furphy's continued emergence as a legitimate offensive option that takes the Jayhawks to another level on that end of the floor. All season long, Bill Self has talked about the need to find a reliable fifth player in addition to his four veteran anchors: Hunter Dickinson, Kevin McCullar Jr., KJ Adams and Dajuan Harris Jr. At different times, Elmarko Jackson, Nicolas Timberlake and Jamari McDowell Everyone stepped up, but no one was able to do it consistently until Furphy was inserted into the lineup in mid-January. He has scored in double figures in six straight games and had 17 points and eight rebounds on Saturday against Houston, hitting three 3-pointers. The freshman from Australia is 6-foot-9, shoots 44.4 percent from 3-point range and is a transition finisher. His ability to stretch the floor and take some of the pressure off Dickinson and McCullar Jr. makes Kansas that much harder to defend.
Impact of the Lunardi bracket: Even in defeat, Houston remains a solid number one spot on our board. A single loss at Phog Allen Field House won't make much of a change in the Cougars' power numbers. They came into this game first in NET, BPI, and KenPom, as well as second in our Strength of Record (SOR) metric. For Kansas, this was an optimal first step back to a potential number one spot. The Jayhawks will most likely have the second seed when we update the full bracket on Tuesday, but the top line is within reach for a program that has lived in the first-place neighborhood for virtually all of Bill Self's tenure.
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Vescovi blows a kiss to the Kentucky fans after the 3rd
Tennessee's Santiago Vescovi scores the 3-pointer and blows a kiss to the Kentucky crowd.
Medical calf: Kentucky's talent can't overcome its defensive woes. That's a challenge that could lead to another early finish in March. Days after suffering a loss to Florida (the Gators recorded 118 points per 100 possessions), Kentucky gave up 103 points to Tennessee in a loss. Kentucky has multiple projected first-round picks in 2024, according to ESPN's latest mock draft. But that talent can't erase history: No team with a mark lower than 75 in adjusted defensive efficiency has ever won a national title. The Wildcats ranked 76th in adjusted defensive efficiency before Tennessee's home loss on Saturday. They have given up 85 points or more in seven games this season. Rob Dillingham (35 points against the Vols) and his teammates can put up big numbers, but the Wildcats simply don't have the statistical makeup of a Final Four team based on their defensive issues. How bad are they? Four under-100 teams in KenPom have won over the same UNC-Wilmington team (50 percent inside the arc) that beat Kentucky on Dec. 2 at Rupp Arena. This is not a problem for John Calipari's team. It's a crisis.
Borzello: The Tennessee story in recent weeks has been Dalton Knecht, Dalton Knecht, Dalton Knecht. The transfer from Northern Colorado has been one of the best players in college basketball all season, but he has taken his game to a new level over the last five games, averaging just under 32 points per game over that span. On Saturday in Lexington, however, Knecht settled down and finished with 16 points on 5-of-14 shooting. But the Volunteers showed they can win without him having a monster performance. Zakai Zeigler showed elite playmaking ability with 26 points and 13 assists, while Josiah-Jordan James scored 26 points. The team made 12 of 30 3-point shots and also scored 42 points in the paint. Knecht is the reason Tennessee has a dramatically improved offense this season (and will likely be the catalyst if the Vols make a breakthrough in March), but scoring 103 points on the road at Kentucky without Knecht leaving is a huge opportunity. sign for Rick Barnes' side.
Impact of the Lunardi bracket: Tennessee firmly defended its number one position by beating Kentucky at Rupp Arena. The Vols' wire-to-wire victory certainly passed any possible “eye test,” giving us five teams with legitimate blue-chip profiles. The knee-jerk reaction after Saturday would be to drop Houston and move up Tennessee, but that would be the wrong impulse and an unlikely one the committee would make under similar circumstances. The Cougars still have the metrics and wins to rank behind only Purdue and UConn, leaving UNC and UT for last place. The Tar Heels' slight lead is bolstered by a pre-conference win over the Vols. Meanwhile, Kentucky missed a chance to regain a top-four spot and lost for the third time in four starts.
