The University of Illinois football team hosts top-ranked Ohio State on Saturday, ensuring a packed house and a frenetic atmosphere on campus. The weather in Champagne is expected to be perfect: mostly sunny and around 70 degrees.
“Chamber of Commerce stuff,” said Brad Underwood, the school's basketball coach.
In previous years, Underwood would have organized a massive recruiting weekend, trying to convince every possible high school prospect to see U of I at its best. After all, the early signing period is only five weeks away.
This year? There are no official visits, just a couple of local players who will travel alone.
“I just choose not to,” Underwood said. “I'm not wasting my time or money.”
Welcome to the fall, where the college basketball recruiting season is in semi-hibernation.
The hiring calendar has changed for countless reasons. Coaches' tendency to favor experienced players from the transfer portal has reduced pressure on landing high school stars. Meanwhile, major players are hoping for greater certainty and what they hope will be higher monetary offers in the spring.
But the trend is compounded this year by uncertainty over a proposed NCAA change that would provide all athletes with five years of eligibility within a five-year span, called the “5 in 5 Rule.” The goal is to end redshirting, arbitrary waiver decisions and lawsuits over eligibility.
The problem is that it is not clear if the rule will be approved, much less when it will be implemented. The NCAA process is notoriously slow, and although a source with knowledge of the situation tells ESPN it won't happen this academic year, there has been no official statement. In a time of rapid and dramatic change, coaches remain cautious.
If the 5 in 5 rule applies, then suddenly almost all college seniors would have an extra year of eligibility, causing a stalemate for incoming freshmen.
Since coaches have no idea how many players may return, they also have no idea how many new players they might need.
And if they need new players, will they add experienced 22-year-olds from a portal roster instead of turning to unproven high schoolers? That doesn't take into account how much revenue sharing money and NIL opportunities need to be allocated to maintain your workforce.
Essentially, the entire sport is somewhat blind to how to build a roster for the 2026-27 season. Illinois could use some major work. Or he may not need much of anyone (he has two high school players committed).
“No one knows what's coming or what to do,” said Underwood, who has led Illinois to five consecutive NCAA tournament appearances.
This also extends in the other direction. Today's players are more cautious because they cannot project what awaits them, from playing time to available money.
It's one of the reasons why, even with the Nov. 15 early signing period approaching, only 16 of ESPN's top 50 recruits (and just three of the top 15) are committed to a school.
“In the past, a high school recruit would say, 'This is how I would fit on the roster,' but that doesn't exist anymore. You don't know the roster for next year,” said Paul Biancardi, ESPN's national director of recruiting. “With the guys from the portal entering or leaving, you don't know what the squad will be.”
Everything has been postponed until spring, where Underwood expects “total chaos.”
His frustration isn't with the proposed rule: He says he supports 5 to 5 as long as it ends exemptions and legal cases. And Underwood, despite having been a coach for 38 years, isn't complaining about the good old days. He likes most of this new era.
“I'm tired of all the complaints from coaches,” Underwood said. “Believe … [college] Basketball is the best there has ever been. There is a lot of top-level talent in the game. “I think the game is ready to explode.”
You would just like to have clarity on how to plan for the next year.
“We just need to know what it's going to be,” he said.
If fifth year finally arrives, many high school prospects could be pushed to the mid-major level. That can also be a strategy. If you're, say, a top-100 recruit, why sign with a major team to play a limited role, when you can go to a mid-major team and prove yourself?
“That's an opportunity for kids,” Underwood said. “Go build your brand as a double-digit scorer.”
Basically, no one is sure which way to go.
“It's really fascinating how it's changed, how the coaches approach it, the money, the transfer portal,” Biancardi said. “Everything is different.”
Not all bad, just different. Underwood says this time of year there used to be “hair on fire.” This September, however, he went out for just one day to recruit. April and May will be crazy, but he has more time to connect with “the guys I'm going to try to win with this winter.”
And on what would have otherwise been a busy fall recruiting weekend, he could settle in and watch the football game.
