Sure, the best team could win it all in March. But perhaps the healthier team will have the advantage when it comes time to cut down the nets.
The last month of college basketball has been full of injuries that have impacted the rosters of the best teams in the United States. The effect of some of the events is obvious. Others may not be as clear cut on the surface, but the metrics suggest they could have an impact on their respective teams' Final Four hopes if they persist in the coming weeks.
Auburn's Jaylin Williams missed a game due to a knee injury, but returned for Wednesday's loss at Tennessee. Duke's Caleb Foster suffered an ankle injury during his team's loss at Wake Forest and missed Wednesday's win over Louisville. Foster is expected to return, but the timeline for a possible return of other key players has been more uncertain.
Langston Love (11.1 ppg, 49% 3pt) was playing his best basketball of the season for Baylor when a leg injury derailed his season and forced him to miss most of the February roster and possibly beyond. Tre Mitchell, Kentucky's leading rebounder, has missed six of the last seven games with a shoulder injury. Joshua Jefferson (10.2 ppg) has missed several games for Saint Mary's with a knee injury.
And earlier this week, Bill Self said Kansas is “not counting on” the return of Kevin McCullar Jr., a potential All-American and projected first-round pick in this summer's NBA draft.
This is all bad news at the worst possible time for these teams hoping to make noise in the NCAA tournament. It's also the unfortunate reality of a long season. Sometimes the team that avoids the injury bug carries that luck into the postseason.
The possible return of those key players (or their continued absences) could change everything in March.
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Friday, 9 p.m. Eastern, ESPN2
Drew Valentine was just 29 years old when he took the job at Loyola Chicago following Porter Moser's departure for Oklahoma nearly three years ago. He won 25 games during the 2021-22 season, his first as a head coach, and led the team to the NCAA Tournament. But four of the five starters on that squad graduated. A year later, he won only 10 games and critics wondered if he had inherited a job he couldn't handle. This season, Valentine is proving that he was the right choice. He has his Loyola team at the top of the standings with a chance to win the Atlantic 10 championship in just his second year in the league. But the Ramblers will have to overcome Dayton to achieve that goal. DaRon Holmes II (20.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 37% from 3-point range) and the Flyers have lost just three games since November 19.
Medcalf's choice: Dayton, 75-70; Against the spread: Dayton (-1.5)
Saturday, 1 pm ET ABC
There are questions these two teams must answer to reach their ceiling as March approaches. For Baylor, this is the mystery: Where is the real RayJ Dennis? The Toledo transfer and former MAC Player of the Year is shooting just 33% from the 3-point line in conference games. He also went 2-for-12 from beyond the arc with 15 turnovers in Baylor's last three games. Yves Missi and Ja'Kobe Walter are playing like the projected first-round picks they are, according to authoritative mock drafts, but the Bears need Dennis to return to an elite level.
Meanwhile, Kansas has failed to create any consistent, commendable offense from its half-court sets without McCullar. Johnny Furphy, the 6-foot-9 Australian who is suddenly rising up mock draft boards, is probably the team's most capable scorer without McCullar, and Bill Self's team needs a boost with All-American potential sidelined, such as once for the rest of the season. season. The Big 12 is a two-team race between Houston and Iowa State, but Baylor and Kansas are trying to figure out who they are before the postseason hits.
Medcalf's choice: Baylor, 77-74; Against the spread: Not available at time of publication
Saturday, 2:30 pm ET, FOX
In the two games leading up to Wednesday's 91-69 win over Providence (wins over DePaul and Xavier) Tyler Kolek recorded 28 assists and three turnovers. The Golden Eagles are a more fluid team when the potential All-American and NBA prospect is both a potent scorer and an effective distributor. Marquette is 12-1 when Kolek finishes with at least eight assists in a game this season. He has averaged 5.6 APG and 2.8 turnovers per game in Marquette's six losses. In his team's lopsided loss at UConn last Saturday, he finished with three assists and four turnovers. It's no secret who Creighton will try to stop in this matchup… but only if Kolek is available. He left Wednesday's game with an oblique injury. If he can't go, everything changes. Even a completely healthy team would have a challenge with this Creighton team.
Ryan Kalkbrenner (17.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg) has been a force on both ends of the floor for Creighton. But the Bluejays, who make 3-pointers on nearly half of their field goal attempts, may be rattled by their shooting volume. After a big win over UConn last week, they went 6-for-26 from beyond the arc in a 14-point road loss to St. John's on Sunday. Then, that same group made 41% of their 3-point attempts in Wednesday's win over Seton Hall. Kolek or not, Marquette will have its hands full with this Creighton team.
Medcalf's choice: Creighton, 86-80; Against the spread: Not available at time of publication
Saturday, 8 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
Skill, talent, defensive prowess, and shooting ability impact a team's potential throughout the season. But the schedule also matters. Tennessee and Alabama are tied for first place in the SEC, so the winner of this game will have the edge in the conference race. The league roster, however, could determine who will win the regular season crown. After this game, the Vols will travel to play South Carolina, the same South Carolina that beat them in Knoxville earlier this season, and then host a Kentucky team with a group of future pros in the season finale . Alabama will play in Florida and finish with a home game against Arkansas (ranked 125th in the NET rankings). Tennessee is 7-1 in its last eight games, but only two of the wins have come against a top-25 KenPom team. Alabama gave up 117 points in a loss at Kentucky last Saturday, but the Crimson Tide still ranks first in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Medcalf's choice: Alabama, 79-77; Against the spread: Not available at time of publication
SEASON TOTALS
Medcalf's choices are clear: 35-24
Against the spread: 30-29
