For much of the country, college basketball will begin this weekend. With just one more game left in the NFL slate and the College Football Playoffs complete, college basketball will take center stage in the coming weeks.
And what a weekend to start watching.
This weekend's games are all about the stakes of the NCAA tournament, rivalries, conference championship races and star power.
Duke-North Carolina is the anchor. It is the beacon of the entire sport. No matter what is happening in college basketball in any given year, it has always been a spectacle that transcends sports. And it will be no different this season: the winner will have bragging rights and there will be more believers in their respective Final Four dreams.
Speaking of dreams, Dalton Knecht played at Northern Colorado a year ago and now he's the player Kentucky will have to stop to beat Tennessee. Plus, Wisconsin is fun again. (Not seriously). And Houston at Kansas would have been the biggest game in sports on any other weekend.
This will be fun. Enjoy.
All ESPN Bet odds.
No. 4 Houston (19-2, 6-2 Big 12) at No. 8 Kansas (17-4, 5-3)
Saturday, 4 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
Perhaps this, and the replay in the season finale in Houston on March 9, will decide the final outcome of the Big 12 race. Once the league announced the additions of Houston, UCF, Cincinnati and BYU, this was the date men's college basketball fans marked their calendars. But we never anticipated the Cougars and Jayhawks would face this type of competition before this. The Jayhawks enter this matchup behind the Cougars, Texas Tech and Iowa State in the standings. And Kevin McCullar Jr. (19.8 points per game) missed Tuesday's win over Oklahoma State with a knee injury.
Kansas, which lost to Iowa State last weekend in Ames, faces its toughest start in the league since going 4-4 in the first eight Big 12 games during the 2020-21 season. Baylor won the conference title that year. Meanwhile, since their two-game losing streak last month, the Cougars have been first in adjusted defensive efficiency and held their opponents to 42.4% inside the arc, according to barttorvik.com. But they have also made just 44% of their three-pointers during their current five-game winning streak.
This is one of the most anticipated matchups in college basketball this season. And the stakes are high for a pair of programs seeking a high berth in the NCAA Tournament.
Medcalf's choice: Kansas 71-68; Against the spread: Kansas (+1.5)
No. 7 Duke (16-4, 7-2 ACC) at No. 3 North Carolina (17-4, 9-1)
Saturday, 6:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
Hubert Davis began each of his first two seasons as head coach in Chapel Hill with a 15-6 record overall and a 7-3 record in the league as of late January. However, both seasons had different results: the 2021-22 campaign ended with a run to the national title game, while the season saw the Tar Heels finish without an invitation to the NCAA tournament. This year's group, led by RJ Davis, arguably the best point guard in the country, is chasing a first-place finish after winning its first nine games in the ACC. But the Tar Heels couldn't shake the late-January worries heading into Saturday's game. Tuesday's loss at Georgia Tech (128th in the NET rankings) has hurt the teams' chances of securing a top seed on Selection Sunday.
But the Blue Devils have their own concerns. Jeremy Roach has played through knee and ankle injuries in recent weeks. Kyle Filipowski, a national player of the year contender and projected lottery pick in this summer's NBA draft, is just 1 of 10 from 3-point range in his last three games. And Duke ranked 57th in adjusted defensive efficiency in the month of January, according to barttorvik.com. Jon Scheyer's squad, however, has more depth and scoring options. Let's face it: Duke has more talent, while North Carolina has been the better team. Prepare your popcorn.
Medcalf's choice: Duke, 77-74; Against the spread: Duke (+4.5)
No. 5 Tennessee (15-5, 5-2 SEC) at No. 10 Kentucky (15-4, 5-2)
Saturday, 8:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
With his team trailing 59-53 with 41 seconds left, Tennessee star Dalton Knecht hit a pair of 3-pointers to keep his team alive a little longer in Tuesday's eventual loss to South Carolina. That's been the issue for the Vols… and the problem. Knecht is one of the United States' top scoring threats (20.1 points per game, 40% from 3-point range) and the anchor of one of the best defensive teams in the country.
But now they face Kentucky, a team loaded with NBA talent. Antonio Reeves (19.5 ppg, 43% from 3-point range) has also been quietly building a case to be a first-team All-American. The Wildcats are an overwhelming team offensively, but they rank 75th in adjusted defensive efficiency. This last metric is important because it is usually an indicator of a team's ceiling. It's also the reason the Wildcats have a loss to UNC Wilmington on their resume.
Medcalf's choice: Kentucky, 78-74; Against the spread: (Kentucky +1.5)
No. 2 Purdue (19-2, 8-2 Big Ten) at No. 6 Wisconsin (16-4, 8-1)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
You would think Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky were back on the roster the way the Badgers have run the offense. Wisconsin hasn't finished in the top five in adjusted offensive efficiency in KenPom since the 2014-15 campaign, the year it reached the national game. Greg Gard, a disciple of Bo Ryan, earned his praise by coaching a Badgers team that had six top-30 finishes in defensive efficiency during his tenure. This year's group is their best offensive team, recording five games of 80 or more points, an impressive mark for a group that is one of the slowest in the country (under 300 in pace).
The Badgers will need that offensive juice in the first of their two matchups against the Boilermakers (games that will likely determine the Big Ten champion) who have reached the 90-point mark in regulation twice in the league. We know what Purdue is. It's Zach Edey and a talented group of contributors (see: Braden Smith at 12.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 7.0 APG, 44% from 3) who are in the top 10 in 3-point percentage (40%). They will still have to compete with AJ Storr (15.9 points per game) and a fleet of six Wisconsin players who average at least 7.5 points per game.
Medcalf's choice: Wis., 83-80; Against the spread: Not available at time of publication
SEASON TOTALS
Medcalf's choices are clear: 27-16
Against the spread: 20-23
