It's obvious that the teams at the top of college basketball are real contenders. But just when that group of elite teams had begun to separate themselves from the rest, their weaknesses were revealed.
Purdue has the best college basketball player in the country and a great supporting cast, but after Tuesday's loss at Nebraska, every Boilermaker fan is wondering if Zach Edey's foul trouble will cost them a chance to win a national title. Houston scored just 53 points in a loss to Iowa State that same night. Who could score for the Cougars if LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead have a rough night in the NCAA tournament? Kansas just lost to a UCF team that had previously lost to… Stetson. And Tennessee gave up more points in a loss to Mississippi State (77) than Southern scored in its win over the Bulldogs last month (60).
Arizona is rolling again, but the Wildcats gave up 100 points in a loss at Stanford, the same Cardinal that couldn't cross 80 in a loss at USC days later. Auburn, which has a baffling loss at Appalachian State on its resume, has been unstoppable lately, but we don't know if the Tigers are for real until the toughest part of their conference schedule begins next month.
Kentucky? The Wildcats look good, but the history of teams ranked outside the top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency (the Wildcats are 44th) reaching the Final Four is not strong. University of Connecticut, Baylor, Duke? All teams with Final Four potential. But they, like the rest of their peers, still have room to grow.
Let's see what the weekend has in store for these and other title contenders.
All ESPN Bet odds.
Friday, 9:30 pm ET, BTN
During the 1957-58 season, Jerry Bush led the Cornhuskers to a victory over then-No. 1 Kansas State. His grandson, Fred Hoiberg, led Nebraska to a victory over No. 1 Purdue on Tuesday. However, when Hoiberg's grandfather was head coach, the NIT was still the sport's supreme postseason event. If Keisei Tominaga (19 points, 5-of-9 from 3-point range vs. Purdue) and his teammates can pull off a road win over the Hawkeyes on Friday, the Cornhuskers will add another Quad 1 win to their resume and add to their probabilities. to win an at-large berth for the second time since 1998.
Medcalf's choice: Nebraska, 88-85; Against the spread: Nebraska (+4.5)
Saturday, 2 p.m. Eastern, ESPN+
Houston's loss to the Cyclones on Tuesday could affect the Big 12's final standings: The league title has been shared or won by a team with a one-game lead in the standings in three of the last five years. The winner of this Saturday afternoon battle could have the advantage when the race is decided in March. And after KU's loss on Wednesday, the sense of urgency is high for both teams. But the Jayhawks have home field advantage. Meanwhile, the Sooners come in with a top-10 national ranking, a loss at TCU and zero real road wins entering the week. Kevin McCullar Jr. (20.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.5 APG) looks like a first-team All-American and a first-round pick in the 2024 NBA draft right now, so the Sooners will have to play their best game this year for Leave Lawrence with the victory.
Medcalf's choice: Kansas, 78-72; Against the spread: Not available at time of publication
Saturday, 1 pm ET, FOX
Rick Pitino is feeling comfortable again in the Big East, which should worry the league. His team entered the week on a three-game winning streak (Hofstra, Butler, Villanova), with wins in five of its last six, all before Wednesday's win over Providence. The Johnnies led the league in turnover percentage, according to KenPom, and made 52% of their shots inside the 3-point line. Additionally, Daniss Jenkins averaged 18.3 points per game and 6.7 points per game during that three-game stretch. On the other hand, Ryan Kalkbrenner (15.8 ppg, 7.3 RPG, 2.4 RPG) is the reason the Bluejays lead the Big East in efficiency inside the 3-point line in offense (61.6%) and defense (40.1% allowed).
Medcalf's choice: Creighton, 82-75; Against the spread: Not available at time of publication
Saturday, 6 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
A loss on the road in one of the most energetic buildings in America is no reason for anyone to doubt Houston's title hopes. But the performances of two key players in that 57-53 loss could be a concern going forward. Jamal Shead is a strong candidate to earn All-America honors, but his five turnovers were instrumental in that loss, and LJ Cryer, Houston's leading scorer this season, scored just five points. It's unlikely we'll see that duo combine for a similar night off the rest of the way. But an angry TCU team, which just beat top-10 Oklahoma, is still thinking about that controversial loss at Kansas last weekend.
Medcalf's choice: Houston, 72-66; Against the spread: Not available at time of publication
SEASON TOTALS
Medcalf's choices are clear: 23-11
Against the spread: 17-17
