KANSAS CITY, Missouri — The stakes in Monday's Copa America group stage final pitting the United States men's national team against Uruguay couldn't be much higher. Not only is this the most important game the United States must win since the 2022 FIFA World Cup, but it could also be the most important until the next World Cup.
Because the United States is co-hosting the 2026 World Cup alongside Canada and Mexico, there is no World Cup qualifying, and combined with a packed international schedule, the Copa America represents the only opportunity in this cycle for the U.S. national team to play against high-quality opponents in a tournament. The 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup will not come close to competing.
Suffice to say, the odds are against the United States national team. Basically, the United States needs to beat Uruguay to have the best possible chance of advancing. The simplest way to think about it is that the US national team needs a better result against Uruguay (the best team in the group) than Panama gets against Bolivia (the worst team in the group) to guarantee their advancement.
That means beating Uruguay alone might not be enough. If Panama beats Bolivia by more than one goal (the most likely scenario based on Bolivia's performances so far), the United States could be on track to lose the tiebreaker on goal difference unless it beats Uruguay by more than one goal. goal. All those scoring opportunities the Americans blew at the end of their 2-0 tournament-opening victory against Bolivia (which seems like ages ago) could come back to haunt the U.S. national team.
With that in mind, here are the five big questions, with some predictions, heading into Monday's matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.
1. Who replaces the suspended Timothy Weah?
The loss of Timothy Weah is profound in several ways, but the most important is the pure speed he possesses and can stretch defenses, something no other attacker on the US roster has to the same extent. With this in mind, American coach Gregg Berhalter appears to have two options to replace Weah.
He could plug Haji Wright into a spot on the left wing while moving Christian Pulisic to the right. Wright played a lot in that position for Coventry City this season, and Pulisic spent most of his time at AC Milan on the right. There would be a certain level of comfort in the change for both players.
The other possibility is that Gio Reyna slides into Weah's spot, where he played for the U.S. in the past, and Berhalter brings Yunus Musah into the lineup in an attempt to reclaim the “MMA” midfield with Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams.
Uruguay plays with an intense and chaotic style, exemplified by midfielders Manuel Ugarte and Federico Valverde (assuming they are not rested). The addition of Musah would provide a little more physical strength in the midfield. This will have the added benefit of reducing Reyna's defensive duties and allowing him to get inside to create plays when the opportunity arises.
This last approach seems the most likely option.
2. Matt Turner said his injury was not serious. Play?
It initially didn't look like goalkeeper Matt Turner would recover in time for the Uruguay game, despite insisting after the Panama game that he would “be fine.” Turner did not participate in the start of Saturday's training session, the only portion open to the media. A U.S. Soccer spokesman said he would participate in “limited training” later in the session.
But Turner participated in the start of Sunday's session and did not appear to have any movement limitations whatsoever. That said, Berhalter said at Sunday's news conference that Turner had limited participation and the team will “continue to monitor his status.”
In the end it will depend on how he feels and how the coaching staff thinks he looks. As long as his goal coverage (especially when he dives to his right) is not affected, he will start. But if he is committed in any way, then Berhalter will have to go with Ethan Horvath.
There are some concerns with Horvath's option. While there was a lot of blame for José Fajardo's decisive goal in the Americans' 2-1 loss to Panama, the shot was saved, which doesn't give Horvath much momentum in terms of supplanting Turner.
Hopefully Turner will be in the lineup.
3. Will Ricardo Pepi get another chance despite the poor finish?
Let's be clear. At this stage, no one will replace Folarin Balogun in the starting lineup. The AS Monaco striker has been one of the few bright spots in this tournament for the USA, and Berhalter can only hope his stellar form against The light blue.
The question centers on who Berhalter will go with if he looks to his bench for a late goal. Ricardo Pepi has had minutes on the field, but he has yet to take advantage of several glorious opportunities in the two games. There's the old cliché that at least Pepi is putting himself in a position to score, but at some point he needs to convert.
The search for alternatives leads to another question: How healthy is Josh Sargent? He did come on for a late cameo against Panama, but only for four minutes, which amounted to just two touches. The season was so short that it did little to answer the question about Sargent's fitness level.
Lastly, is Wright a center option or is he limited to just the wing? His performances in the Concacaf Nations League showed that he could play a central role. If the United States is pursuing a goal, Wright should have the first opportunity.
4. Can the USMNT maintain its discipline?
Over the past two years, the United States has proven itself susceptible to the opponent's “dark arts” that are a staple of international soccer. Since the summer of 2022, the U.S. has seen players sent off on five separate occasions. The statistic spans 21 competitive matches, including the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup, when the U.S. fielded a B team.
That's not a healthy ratio when it comes to keeping all 11 players on the field.
Nor can youth be argued to be the reason for this. This team has been through the rigors of a World Cup qualifying campaign, in addition to the World Cup itself. At the club level, players on the U.S. roster have played in some of the world's top leagues and have participated in the most intense derbies in the sport. Maintaining composure shouldn't be a problem, and yet it is.
Is it the training? There have been three different managers during this period (interims Anthony Hudson and BJ Callaghan) in addition to Berhalter. It really comes down to players harnessing their emotions and keeping their collective heads.
5. Who will win? What will the score be? Will the United States advance?
Under Berhalter, there have been times when the U.S. has responded well when its back is against the wall. Consider Honduras on the road and Panama at home during World Cup qualifying. There was also the win over Iran in the U.S. team's final group game at the World Cup.
In this case, the United States has some advantages over Uruguay. The Americans are playing at home, and while Uruguay has not clinched a spot in the knockout rounds, their superior goal differential means they can probably rest some players. Uruguay coach Marcelo Bielsa is also suspended for the match because his team was twice late for the second-half kickoff, leaving the team in the hands of assistants Diego Reyes and Pablo Quiroga.
The USMNT will also be eager to make amends for the poor performance against Panama.
That said, Uruguay will not give up and will demonstrate its characteristic competitiveness. Our prediction? The United States will play a great game and draw 1-1, but it will not be enough to advance to the knockout phase.
If that happens, it will almost certainly mean the end of Berhalter's tenure as U.S. coach. Or so one might think.
