So the January transfer window was a failure. Premier League clubs alone spent just over £100m on new players, barely an eighth of the staggering £800m-plus outlay in 2023. With profit and sustainability rules (PSR) coming to the fore and both Everton With Nottingham Forest accused of breaches, clubs were cautious with their money.
There was no cash from Saudi Arabia this time either to fuel the spending frenzy, and the knock-on effect it had on the rest of Europe was keenly felt on deadline day as very little actually happened.
But fear not! Summer will be different. Many Premier League clubs will turn the page on a new financial year and be able to spend, Saudi Arabia will stalk the market once again and that will put the rest of Europe in the spending fray too.
With that in mind, and wanting to hastily forget the truly dry January of 2024, let's take a too-early look at the major transfer deals we could see this summer.
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Kylian Mbappé: from Paris Saint-Germain to Real Madrid, free
Sources have confirmed to ESPN that Mbappé will finally make a free transfer to Real Madrid this summer when his contract expires, ending an excruciating saga (although we've said it before!)
There is still a lot to resolve before this is approved, such as the Frenchman's weekly salary and availability for the Summer Olympics, but the most important factor, Mbappé's own decision, is now solidified.
If he moves to the Santiago Bernabéu this summer, he will give up a huge bonus of around €80 million owed to him by PSG and join forces with the electric trio of Vinícius Jr., Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham, forming perhaps the most feared attack . world quartet
Mohamed Salah: from Liverpool to Al Ittihad, 120 million euros
The summer of 2024 already promises to be difficult for Liverpool, as veteran manager Jürgen Klopp has announced that he will be leaving the club. The last thing they also need is fearful speculation about Salah, but it is almost certain that Al Ittihad (who offered €170 million to sign him last summer) will try their luck again a year later.
At that point, Salah will only have one year left on his contract, giving Al Ittihad some advantage in negotiations as they will take advantage of the fact that they could sign the Egypt international on a free transfer next summer. This is essentially Liverpool's last chance to collect a mammoth transfer fee, which judging by history, is something they have always been willing and cool-headed enough to do.
Think about it: Klopp and Salah are gone? That really would be like the end of an era.
Ivan Toney: Brentford to a 'top six' club, €60m
Toney has never made any secret of his desire to play for a top Premier League team and, having returned from an eight-month betting ban, that desire will likely have intensified as he looks to make up for lost time.
Like Salah, Toney's contract expires in 2025, meaning he will enter the final 12 months of his contract this summer. A club like Brentford, who continually strive to move players for transfer profit, will almost certainly accept that it is time for him to leave. But they will still demand a significant fee.
Chelsea and Arsenal are likely to enter that conversation, perhaps others too. If he impresses for England at Euro 2024 things could get complicated, but come September Toney will almost certainly have a new home.
Karim Benzema: Leave Al Ittihad free
Benzema was announced for a transfer at the end of January due to the untenable situation he finds himself in at Al Ittihad – he is reportedly training in isolation after falling out with management and made it clear he wanted to leave. Chelsea, Arsenal and his boyhood club Lyon were mentioned as possible rescue destinations, but his astronomical salaries (more than €100 million a year, tax free), his age (36) and his worrying history of Injuries likely contributed to the teams ultimately staying away.
Perhaps over the next five months he and Al Ittihad will reconcile, leading to his reintroduction to the team. But if not, Benzema will have to find a new club. It could be as simple as reassigning him within the Saudi Pro League, but he did not like the idea of a loan in January and a return to Europe could again be on the cards.
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Laurens: Only two clubs in Europe can bet on Osimhen
Julien Laurens joins the ESPN FC show to discuss the future of Victor Osimhen after the Nigerian striker said he has decided on his future.
Victor Osimhen: from Naples to Chelsea, 130 million euros
Osimhen has already made a decision about where his future lies. Unfortunately, she still hasn't told us where she is.
He has a huge €130m release clause in his contract and that rules out all but a handful of destinations. PSG may look to replace Mbappé with him; Otherwise, only top-tier Premier League clubs, or those in Saudi Arabia (whom he has already rejected) will be able to find that money.
Fortunately for Osimhen, his skills adapt to virtually any league, style or team, so he will likely do well wherever he ends up. But he will most likely move to Chelsea, who have been looking to solve their striker problem for years.
Bruno Guimarâes: from Newcastle United to PSG, 100 million euros
It seems that Newcastle United will have to part with a star player in 2024 in order to comply with the PSR, and although that would break the hearts of fans, the most logical one would be Guimarâes.
His impact on Tyneside has been incredible, helping to lift Newcastle out of the Champions League relegation zone in just a year and a half, establishing himself as one of the best midfielders in the world in the process.
He is good enough to command a huge fee and reportedly has a release clause of over €100m, while ESPN Brazil has reported that he is a top target for PSG this year.
Kevin De Bruyne: from Manchester City to Saudi Arabia, 60 million euros
Now that De Bruyne has returned to action after injury, so has the discussion over his future. The 32-year-old is approaching the final year of his contract with Manchester City and, although manager Pep Guardiola would like to sign him for several more, it is not necessarily up to him.
Recent reports suggest that the Saudi Pro League will try to take over KDB, offering him a huge salary and City a huge sum to offload him. Given his contract status, his age and his recent injury problems, he might be tempted.
Aaron Ramsdale: leave Arsenal, 40 million euros
The fuss over Ramsdale's surprise benching at the start of the season has now died down, with Brentford loanee David Raya clearly the number one option. Once it became clear that no move would be approved in January, any transfer rumors (with links to Chelsea and Newcastle) also died down. But come summer, this will once again be one of the hottest topics as Ramsdale simply cannot allow this situation to continue.
However, there is a general lack of vacancies between clubs in England and the top clubs in Europe. At first glance, perhaps only Roma have a serious need to address the goalkeeping position as it is, so Ramsdale might have to wait out an injury or drop a little further down the table than he wants in order to find playtime. And meanwhile, his chances of being England's number one look slim.
Rafael Leão: from AC Milan to PSG, 120 million euros
PSG has a handful of months to prepare for Mbappé's departure, and by prepare we mean identifying who they want to replace him with.
The squad already has 21-year-old striker Bradley Barcola, who is really flourishing, as well as Ousmane Dembélé, Marco Asensio and Lee Kang-In, who can play there, but the modern history of this club suggests that they will look to sign a important star to fill the void.
Manchester United's Leão and Marcus Rashford have been mentioned as possible targets, with Rashford's recent split with manager Erik ten Hag fueling the fire of that rumor a bit. But sources have told ESPN that Leão is the one they want the most. He has a release clause of 175 million euros, but Milan are likely to let him leave for less.
