Heading into the final week of the 2024 WNBA regular season, five of the eight playoff seeds are separated by one game in the standings. With all of the teams involved facing each other down the stretch, this means critical games remain on the schedule.
Although the New York Liberty hold a 3½-game lead in the race for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, the Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun are still battling for the second seed, which would mean a more favorable first-round matchup and home-field advantage if the two meet in the semifinals.
The two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces, top seeds in last year's playoffs, are attempting to hold off the Seattle Storm in order to finish fourth and claim home court for what will likely be a first-round matchup between the two Western Conference rivals.
The most hotly contested race is for the eighth and final playoff spot, with the Atlanta Dream and Washington Mystics one game behind the Chicago Sky. With three head-to-head matchups remaining between those teams, a playoff spot will be won on the court over the next week.
With those races in mind, let's look at the five biggest games remaining in the WNBA regular season and how they could shape the upcoming playoffs.
Washington Mystics at the Atlanta Dream
Friday, 7:30 pm ET, ION
Of the teams in the race for the eighth spot, the Dream have the most motivation. Atlanta previously traded its 2025 first-round draft pick as part of a deal for All-Star forward Allisha Gray, meaning the Dream would get no benefit from being in the lottery.
The Mystics landed Atlanta’s first-round pick in a trade with Dallas on draft night in 2023, which could increase Washington’s incentive to make the playoffs. If one of these two teams is going to be the eighth seed, the Mystics would rather enjoy a trip to the postseason and keep the Dream’s lottery pick.
Even though Atlanta is getting back on track with Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard starting every game since the Olympic break, it's Washington that's closing strong. After starting 0-12, the Mystics have gone .500 over their last 24 games and have won six of their last eight, including a 31-point rout of the Sky on Wednesday. That win gave Washington the tiebreaker should the two teams finish tied in the standings.
Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics
Sunday, 3 pm Eastern Time
Two nights later, these same teams will meet in the DMV. They split their first two head-to-head meetings, meaning the results of these games will determine the tiebreaker. If the Dream and Mystics split these two games, the next tiebreaker (record against teams .500 or better) will almost certainly favor Atlanta.
Given that Washington finishes the season with tough matchups against New York and the Indiana Fever (who will likely have already clinched their playoff spot by then), sweeping these two games against Atlanta is something of a necessity for the Mystics to finish eighth.
Chicago Sky at the Atlanta Dream
Tuesday, 7:30 pm ET
The Dream's series of matchups against other contenders for the eighth seed concludes Tuesday when they host Chicago. Projections based on ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) show the Sky as slight favorites over Washington to make the playoffs by virtue of their seeding advantage, but Atlanta could flip the script if it beats Chicago at home.
A Dream win here would tie the season series at 2-2. From there, the tiebreaker against teams with a .500 record remains unsettled, depending on whether the Phoenix Mercury can get to .500. A key question for this matchup is how competitive Chicago is without injured All-Star rookie Angel Reese. The Sky managed to beat the Dallas Wings 92-77 in the first game without her, but their blowout loss at home to the Mystics painted a bleaker picture.
While Chicago doesn't control its first-round pick, which the Wings can acquire via trade, Dallas' position in the lottery means the Sky would benefit from not making the playoffs. In this scenario, the lowest 2025 pick Chicago could get would be the fourth.
Minnesota Lynx in the Connecticut Sun
Tuesday, 7 pm ET
The battle for second place appears to be the most important one left to be resolved, and could determine which team ultimately makes it to the WNBA Finals.
While both teams should be favorites in the first round, facing the Mercury (who have lost five of their last six games, all by double digits) seems like a much safer matchup than playing Indiana, which has leapfrogged Phoenix into the sixth seed. The Fever are 8-3 since the Olympic break and beat Connecticut at home last month. Perhaps more importantly, the No. 2 seeds will have home-field advantage if both Connecticut and Minnesota make the semifinals.
After winning the first two head-to-head meetings, the Sun have the tiebreaker. The team that wins on Tuesday has the advantage to move into second place. Connecticut would only need to match Minnesota's results the rest of the way to finish second with a win, while a Lynx win would potentially put them two games ahead in the standings and make the tiebreaker irrelevant.
Sunday's games will also be relevant to the race for second place. The Sun travel to Las Vegas, while the Lynx visit New York. Connecticut and Minnesota will be the heavy favorites to win their other remaining games, which are against teams with a score below .500.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm
Tuesday, 10 pm ET
Tuesday night’s crucial series concludes on the West Coast with the Aces visiting the Storm in what will likely be a playoff preview. BPI projections show Las Vegas and Seattle meeting in the 4-5 matchup 93% of the time, easily the most likely first-round series and a rematch of the 2020 WNBA Finals and a thrilling semifinal clash in 2022.
In order to host the series, the Storm will have to win Tuesday and get help. Although a Seattle win would tie the season series at 2-2, the Aces currently have the best record against teams with a .500 record or better — they would have to lose their other two games against ranked teams (at Indiana on Friday and at home against Connecticut on Sunday) for the Storm to have a chance at winning a playoff series.
As a result, BPI estimates Seattle will move up to fourth place in just 13% of simulations. Meanwhile, the Aces still have a slim chance of moving up to third place if they beat the Sun and win every game. However, that would require Connecticut to lose at least two of its other three remaining games (at Phoenix, against Minnesota and against Chicago). Otherwise, Las Vegas will finish fourth or fifth, putting the Liberty in the Aces' path back to the Finals.
