This has been the season in which expectations have been exceeded. Of the preseason No. 1 seeds in ESPN women’s bracketology, only UCLA remains in the top spot.
No one outside of Columbia envisioned South Carolina, with an almost entirely new rotation, returning to the top of the standings just a week into the 2023-24 season.
NC State wasn’t on any radar for a No. 1 seed, but the Wolfpack earned its way to the top spot with a 13-0 record that includes dominant wins over UConn and Colorado.
That was the only blemish for the Buffaloes, who with a veteran team were supposed to be good, but that good? The same goes for USC. Freshman JuJu Watkins played even better than expected and led the Trojans to the top 10 along with her.
Baylor remains undefeated and has steadily improved its status each week. Kansas State has only lost to top-seeded Iowa, and the Wildcats have also won over the Hawkeyes.
All of this, along with all the balance the sport has seen across the country, has made this the most difficult season to evaluate in years. And in many ways it leaves more questions than answers as the calendar turns to 2024.
What stories will shape Bracketology the most over the next 11 weeks before March Madness arrives?
How solid are number one seeds?
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UCLA Bruins vs. USC Trojans: Game Highlights
Watch highlights from the UCLA Bruins vs. USC Trojans game, 12/30/2023
The top two spots on the top line look to lose to South Carolina and UCLA. They have established themselves as the two best teams in the country. After that, things are still in play.
Current stakeholders (Iowa and NC State) will have plenty of challenges to contend with deep in the Big Ten and ACC. If Stanford, Colorado or USC can establish themselves as the Pac-12’s second-best team behind the Bruins, they would be the leading contenders for the number one spot.
LSU and UConn, the two best teams of the preseason, cannot be counted out. The Tigers have a manageable SEC schedule, with just one game each against South Carolina, Mississippi State, Ole Mis and Tennessee. The Huskies sent a strong message in Sunday’s win over Marquette that they could get back into the conversation.
Rori Harmon’s injury appears to have taken Texas out of the mix, but Baylor, which won in Austin on Saturday, is starting to look good. Expect plenty of changes for the 3rd and 4th overall spots before Selection Sunday.
Can the Pac-12 retain five teams in the top 16?
USC’s performance at UCLA on Saturday, even with a loss, was a good sign for the Pac-12. The Bruins are one of the best teams in the country and the Trojans went toe to toe, confirming that they will have a long stay in the top 16.
Stanford is No. 2 in net, and Colorado’s win over Utah on Saturday reaffirmed just how good the Buffaloes are. Neither the Cardinal nor the Colorado are going anywhere anytime soon.
The Utes are the wild card for that fifth team. With losses to every major opponent on its schedule so far, and still dealing with the loss of Gianna Kneepkens, Utah’s place as a potential host of the NCAA’s first- and second-round tournament games is shaky. The Utes are now No. 4 and will likely need a win over Stanford on Jan. 12 or USC on Jan. 19 to avoid falling from the No. 5 spot or worse.
Will UConn be a top 4 seed?
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Ashlynn Shade hits consecutive 3-pointers to help UConn achieve it
Freshman Ashlynn Shade hits back-to-back 3-pointers to put UConn up by 28 in the fourth quarter.
There was legitimate cause for concern for UConn fans after the Huskies lost their third game before the holiday shopping season began. Sure, all three faced top-10 teams, but each of them were in double figures. Something wasn’t right in Storrs, but it seems fine now.
In less than a month, freshmen KK Arnold and Ashlynn Shade, in particular, have made big strides, and stars Aaliyah Edwards and Paige Bueckers have played up to their All-American billboard. The Huskies completely flipped the script with three top-25 wins (North Carolina, Louisville and Marquette) by double figures.
This looks like a completely different team than the one that looked so overmatched in Texas on Dec. 3 when UConn initially fell out of the top 16. The Huskies are now firmly back as the No. 3 seed this week, and it seems likely that Storrs will host the tournaments of the NCAA after all.
How many teams will the ACC have?
With Clemson no longer leading the league and qualifying as the ACC’s automatic bid, the ACC is down to nine teams after 10 were included in projections the past two weeks. That’s still No. 1 in the country and seems like a realistic number come Selection Sunday.
Duke, the ACC’s ninth team, is comfortably in the field this week. Syracuse’s surprising play has given more depth to the ACC, and the Orange’s win over Notre Dame on New Year’s Eve was a boost for the conference in the bigger picture of the NCAA tournament. Duke, Miami and North Carolina will be the teams to watch most closely in the coming weeks to best predict the postseason hopes of the nation’s deepest conference.
Where could offer theft come from?
Gonzaga is a lock for the NCAA tournament. UNLV is almost closed. Barring an unforeseen collapse during conference play, even if one or both fail to win their respective league tournaments, they will receive an at-large bid. In that scenario, the WCC and Mountain West would be two-bid leagues, which would narrow the rest of the overall pool.
But that might not be the end of bid stealing. Green Bay, one of the best shooting teams in the country, is currently in the field as an automatic Horizon League qualifier. Just a week ago, the Phoenix was released and the Horizon had two offers. If Green Bay dominates the conference but falls short in the tournament, that could be the case in March as well.
Potential bubble teams can now start looking for chalk in the WCC, MWC and Horizon come Championship Week.
Who could be this year’s Virginia Tech?
Last year at this point, Virginia Tech was in fourth place, had already had two losses in the ACC, and was considered only an outside chance to win the conference. Then, starting in late January, Virginia Tech went red-hot, winning 15 straight, claiming an ACC tournament title and reaching the program’s first Final Four.
Is there a current team outside the top 16 that could end up in Cleveland? The first team that comes to mind is, well, the Hokies. The 2024 version, also currently in fourth place, is surprisingly similar to the 2023 version. They are 10-2 compared to 11-2 last year and have suffered from a lack of consistency that also affected them last December. But Kenny Brooks still has the same two stars in Elizabeth Kitley and Georgia Amoore to lean on, and no one else in the ACC seems ready to take over the league race.
Don’t rule out the Hokies as outside contenders for the top spot.
