On Saturday, Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka will play for the US Open title (4 p.m. ET (ESPN; ESPN+). Pegula is the underdog and is playing in her first major final, while Sabalenka has two Australian Open titles and has reached the US Open final the past two years.
Who will prevail? Our experts weigh in.
What can Pegula do to beat Sabalenka?
Jason Goodall: For Pegula to have any chance of winning (barring Sabalenka losing control), she has to solve the puzzle of how to return Sabalenka's first serve and win enough points on her second serve.
In the Cincinnati Open final (although the conditions were much faster, which favoured Sabalenka), Pegula had to deal with the slice serve that sent her to her forehand on the right side. Even if she did recover it, Sabalenka took very good advantage of her first shot to overcome Pegula.
And when she saw Pegula's second serve (which is very predictable), she pounced on it. Can Pegula serve well enough to create pressure on the scoreboard and can she return well enough to neutralize Sabalenka's serve?
D'Arcy Maine: It will be an uphill battle for the American. In addition to Sabalenka's experience in Grand Slam finals, she also has a 5-2 advantage over Pegula in the series.
But Pegula wasn't exactly the favourite to face Iga Swiatek in the quarter-finals either. She didn't look like she had much of a chance of reaching the final during the first set against Karolina Muchova on Thursday night, either. And yet, here she is.
If Pegula wants to beat Sabalenka on Saturday, she can't afford to have a slow, flat start like she did on Thursday. She'll have to be ready to play from the first point. But she knows exactly what to expect after the pair met in the Cincinnati final less than three weeks ago. Pegula said she knew she would have to be aggressive, “put some pressure on her serve” and just play her game. She has been largely unflappable and calm throughout the fortnight and must maintain the same composure on Saturday despite playing the biggest match of her life.
Bill Connelly: Serve is everything. In Pegula’s two wins over Sabalenka (Cincinnati 2020 and Cancun 2023), she landed at least 61% of her first serves and won at least 63% of her first-serve points; in five losses, her first-serve percentage was 59% or worse four times, and her first-serve winning percentage was 56% or worse four times. Sabalenka is such a strong server that you’re not going to get that many break point opportunities, and you have to create as many easy holds for yourself as possible. Pegula is capable, and her serve got better and better as her semifinal win over Muchova unfolded, but the bar is set high here.
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Jessica Pegula fights to advance to the US Open final
After losing the first set, No. 6 seed Jessica Pegula defeats Karolina Muchova in three sets to advance to the US Open Women's Final.
Tom Hamilton: Play the match of your life and get the crowd going. This will be an incredible occasion for Pegula, and she must use the anticipation and excitement as fuel, rather than something to soothe the butterflies in her stomach. She cannot afford to have Sabalenka start the match so quickly and with the same slow start she had against Muchova.
“I was almost in tears, because it was embarrassing. It was destroying me,” Pegula said after her eventual semifinal win on Thursday. Pegula considers Sabalenka the “favorite to win this tournament,” but Pegula has to put all that aside and ignore the story on the tape, which shows Sabalenka with a 5-2 head-to-head advantage. Pegula is used to defying the odds, as she did against Swiatek, but she has to give it her all against Sabalenka from the start.
Ohm Youngmisuk: Pegula will have to keep Sabalenka from getting comfortable. That could mean changing pace, mixing topspin and slice, taking the ball early and occasionally coming in to give Sabalenka different opportunities.
The longer the rallies, the better for Pegula. At one point in her semifinal victory between the second and third sets, Pegula won 10 of 17 points in which nine or more balls were hit during the point. Pegula will have to rely on her tennis IQ and her will to win and hope to tire Sabalenka out with long rallies. More than anything, she has to get the crowd involved. The majority of Arthur Ashe Stadium will be with her. She has to get the crowd behind her and excited.
What can Sabalenka do to beat Pegula?
Good night: Sabalenka is the overwhelming favorite, and she has learned everything she learned from last year's heartbreaking loss to Coco Gauff in the US Open final. She will come into this final primed and prepared.
She will also know that the game plan she executed in the Cincinnati final is working perfectly, so the focus will be solely on execution under pressure. Can Sabalenka handle the moment of being the favourite with the crowd against her, which is where she struggled in last year's final?
Maine: She continues to do exactly what she has done during her tremendous hard-court run this summer. In her last 11 matches, during which she won the Cincinnati title and reached the final here in New York, she has dropped just one set.
Sabalenka knows all the emotions that come with playing such a match and even what it's like to face an American at Ashe with a title on the line. In 2023, after winning the first set in the final against Gauff, she had to fight hard with the crowd against her and let her nerves get the better of her. On Thursday, against American Emma Navarro, Sabalenka struggled to close out the match in the second set as the crowd raucously cheered her opponent. But she used her past experience to help her focus and get through the situation. She called last year's loss a “very tough lesson” but one she wasn't going to let happen again. That mindset and learning from her past mistakes could help her claim her third Grand Slam title on Saturday.
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Sabalenka beats Navarro to reach US Open final
Aryna Sabalenka defeats Emma Navarro in straight sets to advance to her fourth consecutive hard-court Grand Slam final.
Connelly: Nothing. Nothing newAt least. Sabalenka is, quite simply, the best hard-court player in the world. Over her past five hard-court Grand Slams, she currently has a 31-2 record. She has won 11 of 15 sets all-time against Pegula, has won 22 of her past 23 sets overall, and knocked Pegula off the court in the Cincinnati final just a few weeks ago. After a slump in three-set matches (she lost nine of 15 of them from summer 2023 through spring 2024), she has won eight of her past 11. She is the gold standard on this court, and it will be up to Pegula to find a way to surpass her.
Hamilton: As everyone says, you have to do what comes naturally to you on this surface. It would be the perfect cap to a year in which she won the Australian Open in January, then suffered an illness during her quarter-final loss to Mirra Andreeva in Paris, withdrew from Wimbledon with a shoulder injury, then returned in remarkable form for this tour in New York. Sabalenka knows what it takes to win Grand Slam finals, and that experience will be invaluable on Saturday. But she must block out the crowd – she will have groups of supporters, but it will feel like the world is against her.
Young Misuk: Sabalenka just has to play her game, stay focused, stay confident and keep her emotions in check in front of what will be a Pegula-friendly crowd. US Open fans will want to see an American on top again. Sabalenka can take the crowd out of the game from the start if she dominates Pegula as she has for much of this tournament. Once she gets going, she is very hard to stop. And when Pegula makes a run with the packed house behind her, Sabalenka has to weather the storm.
Who will win?
Maine: Sabalenka. It would be amazing to see an American woman win the title for a second straight year (and Pegula's resilience and persistence is a great story), but it's hard to see anyone beating Sabalenka on this surface right now. Sabalenka isn't going to let this opportunity slip away again and will win it in straight sets.
Connelly: Yes, Sabalenka. Pegula has beaten her before and nothing is impossible, but the odds are in Sabalenka's favor, and for very good reasons. Pegula will have to take out Gauff, so she can get into her head a little bit. But I would say Sabalenka will win in straight sets.
Hamilton: If Pegula pulls this off, it should go down as one of the greatest feats in modern American tennis history. But Sabalenka is playing too well and knows what it takes to get over the finish line, so she has the form and experience to do it.
Young Misuk: Pegula has been on a wonderful run. It will seem like the entire city of New York will be cheering her on to win the title. But Sabalenka is playing at another level right now. She has won 35 of the 38 sets she has played at major tournaments this season (92%). It's hard to see Sabalenka not finishing the job and taking the US Open title.
The betting perspective
Pamela Maldonado: Jessica Pegula +250 against Aryna Sabalenka
In a Grand Slam final, the mental aspect of the game often outweighs pure skill. Jessica Pegula has shown remarkable mental toughness throughout the 2024 US Open. Her quarter-final win over world number one Iga Swiątek in straight sets was a significant breakthrough, as it marked her first win against Swiątek at a Grand Slam and her first major quarter-final win after six previous attempts. This achievement represents an important mental milestone, showcasing Pegula’s ability to overcome past disappointments and elevate her performance.
Pegula's resilience was further demonstrated in her semi-final comeback against Muchova, where she recovered from a set and a break down. These performances show me that Pegula is mentally prepared for the final.
As for the matchup with Sabalenka, Pegula's strong return game could be crucial, as she could take advantage of Sabalenka's occasional inconsistencies on serve. Pegula's game, based on consistency and minimizing unforced errors, contrasts with Sabalenka's more aggressive style. Her excellent court coverage and ability to extend rallies could frustrate powerful players like Sabalenka.
Pegula has also shown tactical flexibility. In her semi-final against Muchova, she adjusted her strategy after losing the first set, varying her serves, targeting Muchova's backhand and increasing the aggression on her returns in the third set. This adaptability could be a key factor in the final against Sabalenka. Pegula got everything right to claim an outright victory in her first Grand Slam final.
