PITTSBURGH — Standing in front of a small group of reporters on the second floor of an Indianapolis hotel during the 2024 NFL combine, Pittsburgh Steelers general manager Omar Khan expressed “full faith” in the quarterback. Kenny Pickett Field.
Ten days later, just before midnight, Russell Wilson posted a video montage of Steelers fans waving Terrible Towels to the song “Renegade” by Styx and tagged the Steelers on his social media platforms, confirming what sources of the league told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Sunday night: The Super Bowl-winning quarterback and nine-time Pro Bowler will soon sign with the Steelers to a team-friendly, one-year contract.
In a move that challenges the Steelers' traditional team-building methods and seemingly flouts a fundamental principle of loyalty, Khan's actions Sunday night spoke louder than his words less than two weeks ago.
The Steelers' top brass repeatedly said they wanted competition for the team's 2022 first-round pick, but a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, even after his prime, is more than just a camp arm to put pressure on. Pickett. Pickett, of course, is still under contract, but the competition to retain the starting job just got a lot tougher… and it might not be a competition at all.
By signing Wilson, 35, the Steelers are conveying their assessment of Pickett, suggesting he is in a much more fragile position than was publicly expressed. The move also points to another internal belief: The Steelers are in win-now mode and believe they are one quarterback away from erasing a playoff winning drought that stretches back to 2016.
From Wilson's perspective, the move makes a lot of sense. In Pittsburgh, Wilson has a clear path to a starting job in an organization that has a rich, winning tradition and a well-established structure under a future Hall of Fame head coach. Schematically, Wilson's skill set and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's tendencies have the potential to be a match made in football heaven.
In his final season in Denver, Wilson had a QBR of 80 when using play action, compared to a QBR of 40 without it. He threw 11 touchdowns and one interception on play action and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. Without game action, Wilson threw 15 touchdowns and 7 interceptions and averaged 6.7 yards per attempt.
During his three years in Atlanta, Smith's offenses used play action at the second-highest rate (32%). And at Tennessee, Smith employed a similar philosophy, building a balanced offense thanks to a formidable running game anchored by Derrick Henry and a complementary passing game.
Although maligned for his decision-making and struggles in his first season in Denver, Wilson showed dramatic improvement in his second season before his release. Wilson improved from throwing 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2022 to 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2023. The Steelers haven't had a quarterback throw 26 touchdowns in a season since Ben Roethlisberger threw 33 in 2020.
For all his improvements in 2023, Wilson still had some issues holding the ball for too long. His average time to throw (3.06 seconds) was the second-longest in the league, ahead of only Justin Fields, and last season the Steelers struggled in pass protection, ranking 17th in block win rate. of pass. That means adding another first-round offensive tackle to pair with 2023 first-round pick Broderick Jones is much more important in April's draft.
In a short-term football sense, the addition of Wilson is a boost for the Steelers' offense. But in the long term, signing him raises more questions than answers.
With a $1.2 million contract, Wilson makes a lot of fiscal sense. In his brief tenure as general manager, Khan quickly earned a reputation for negotiating and finding good bargains for short-term solutions, such as his acquisitions of cornerback Patrick Peterson, receiver Allen Robinson and linebacker Kwon Alexander. For a veteran's minimum salary, Wilson fits perfectly as Khan's signature signing.
And while Wilson expressed his desire to win two more Super Bowls in a recent podcast interview, he actually has more days behind him than on the horizon. Wilson is not a long-term solution, and adding him to the Steelers' quarterback room confuses the future of an already uncertain position.
The Steelers have to make a decision on Pickett's fifth-year option in May 2025. If Wilson does indeed get the starting job, evaluating Pickett and his capabilities outside of a Matt Canada offense becomes much more difficult. And if Pickett doesn't get any significant playing time this year, exercising that option (which started at $22 million for quarterbacks this season) would be financially irresponsible. Does that mean the Steelers would be back in the market for a quarterback in the 2025 draft? Or maybe in 2026, after Pickett, or even Wilson, plays one final season?
The safe option was once the most anticipated: re-signing long-time backup and late-season starter Mason Rudolph for a true competition with Pickett, perhaps even one with the scales tipped slightly in Pickett's favor. Instead, Wilson's signing all but closes the door on Rudolph's return and, according to a league source, he is expected to test free agency.
Typically conservative in their approach to free agency with a preference for building through the draft, the Steelers are spurning tradition for what they hope is a quick-fix deal. It could be the first step in breaking a cycle of mediocrity. Or he could cement his place in a directionless, post-Roethlisberger purgatory.
ESPN statistics and information contributed to this report.
