Pep Guardiola always faced an uphill battle at Manchester City this season, but the sad news that Rodri has suffered an ACL injury that is likely to keep the midfielder out until next season has now given Guardiola and his team a mountain to climb.
Sources have told ESPN that defensive midfielder Rodri will undergo surgery after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee following a seemingly innocuous collision with Arsenal's Thomas Partey in the 20th minute of Sunday's 2-2 draw against the Gunners at the Etihad.
Rodri's painful reaction, the long treatment he underwent on the pitch and his gesture towards Guardiola as he left the pitch, indicating with his arms that “it was over”, foreshadowed the bad news that was to come. Guardiola's confession after the match: “[Rodri] “He's strong. He comes off the pitch and his action is because he felt something, otherwise he would stay there,” he stressed, stressing the fact that the player would not have given up trying to continue playing unless it was a serious problem.
The bad news came after tests were carried out in Spain on Monday and the result is a huge blow for City. Only the loss of striker Erling Haaland could be considered a bigger problem for Guardiola, but only by a fraction.
Earlier this year, Guardiola made clear how much his team relies on the 28-year-old former Atletico Madrid player. “He's an incredible player,” Guardiola said in February. “He's the best midfielder in the world by far. It's because he's capable of doing everything.”
“It's the pace he has, especially his character when things go wrong, he steps forward to get into the box, he goes back, the ability to play short and long. He's always ready.
“What a signing. Manchester City have signed a player who makes it difficult to understand what we have done in recent years without. It would have been difficult.”
Rodri is irreplaceable, as his record in a City shirt shows, and his absence is another of Guardiola's major headaches. City have lost just one game in 2024 with Rodri in the team (the FA Cup final defeat to Manchester United at Wembley last season) and their league run is even more impressive with him in the team.
In the 21 Premier League games Rodri has missed since joining from Atletico in the summer of 2019, City have lost seven of them – 33% of the games played without Rodri. In total, they have lost 19 times in 174 Premier League games – a loss ratio of 11%.
Rodri is the best in the world in a difficult position. According to ESPN's Stats and Information Group, the Spanish midfielder led the Premier League last season in touches (4,124), passes completed (3,359), progressive passes (521), carries (2,629), carry distance (11,662 meters/12,754 yards). He was also second in recoveries (essentially, “possession won”) with 235 (two behind Newcastle's Bruno Guimaraes). He also led Manchester City in tackle attempts (70), successful tackles (43), successful duels (174) and aerial duels won (55).
Sunday was also the 52nd consecutive game that Rodri has started for City and not been on the losing side in the Premier League, a run stretching back to a defeat at Tottenham in February 2023. But when he missed two league games due to suspension last season, City lost both – at Newcastle and at Wolves.
Had it not been for John Stones' dramatic injury-time equaliser against Arsenal on Sunday, City would have lost again without Rodri. With City visiting Newcastle again this weekend in their first full game without the Spanish midfielder, the risk of suffering another defeat with a Rodri-sized hole in the squad is real.
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Guardiola's problem is that he has no one of his calibre to replace him. Former Chelsea and Real Madrid midfielder Mateo Kovacic is the most likely candidate, but he does not control games like Rodri. Matheus Nunes can also get games, but the £53m signing from Wolves last year has not done much in a City shirt; he would have left the club this summer but for the decision to loan Kalvin Phillips to Ipswich Town.
Phillips could have been a useful option if he was still at the club, but the former Leeds and England man has only been a peripheral figure under Guardiola so would not have been seen as a real solution.
John Stones, who moved from his usual centre-back role to play in the midfield position in the latter stages of City’s treble-winning 2022-23 campaign, is perhaps the most likely replacement, playing alongside Kovacic. But Stones succeeded in the holding midfield role because he was playing alongside Rodri, almost in a master-apprentice relationship. Without Rodri’s experience, vision and ability to snuff out danger before it arises, the question Guardiola must answer is whether Stones can be just as effective playing with Kovacic instead of Rodri.
The next option is to wait until the transfer window opens again in January. City, who have made a net profit of £99m during the summer transfer window, will have plenty of funds to sign a world-class replacement, but by then the club's fate in their Premier League audience will either be known or imminent.
On Monday, the independent hearing into Manchester City’s alleged 115 breaches of Premier League financial regulations (a figure that was raised to 130 following a correction by the Premier League to the originally reported total) began, which could result in the club being hit with a hefty fine and points deductions. If things go against City, finding a player to move to the Etihad amid uncertainty over the club’s future will be a difficult challenge and, by then, who knows how damaging the loss of Rodri will have been to the title race.
Arsenal and Liverpool, the teams most likely to dethrone City as Premier League champions, will be looking to capitalise on Rodri's absence and test City's ability to win without him.
He is undoubtedly a world-class player, with only Vinícius Júnior outnumbered in the race for this year's Ballon d'Or. He has already earned the distinction of being named Player of the Tournament at Euro 2024 this summer, so his credentials are not in doubt.
What is in doubt, however, is City's ability to cope without him in a season in which they will have to overcome so many distractions, on and off the pitch.
