SAKHIR, Bahrain – A couple of days ago, Max Verstappen winning the opening race of the Formula One season seemed like the sport's safest bet. Many went further, believing that Red Bull's performance in pre-season testing seemed strong enough to cancel the season entirely and name Verstappen a four-time world champion.
However, the first three practice sessions of the new season combined with Friday's qualifying session painted a much closer competitive picture between Red Bull and its closest rivals. While it's true that Verstappen took his 33rd career pole by more than 0.2 seconds on Friday, at no point during the hour-long session did the result seem like a foregone conclusion.
The top six drivers were split by less than 0.4 seconds, with five teams in the top eight. Each of them seemed to have an explanation for why a tenth of a second was lost here or there, with the end result much closer than they expected.
Charles Leclerc, who took second place on the grid, actually set the fastest time of the night when he clocked a 1:29.165 in Q2, 0.014s faster than the time that ultimately secured pole for Verstappen in Q3. Leclerc believes a repeat in Q3 would have been possible if Ferrari had managed the use of soft tires during the session differently and given him two chances on fresh tires in Q3 instead of one.
“I think it's closer than it looks on the timesheets, but this is a good thing,” Leclerc said. “We expected Red Bull to have a little more margin than there was today, so we are a little closer than we thought.
“But the biggest question mark is obviously tomorrow in the race. I'm pretty sure they have a little more margin than what we saw today. But again, let's wait and see.”
Leclerc's refusal to get too excited is prudent. Last season he took three of the last five pole positions of the year, but Verstappen took victory in the last five races. Over the past year, Red Bull's ability to take care of its tires in race conditions has allowed its drivers, specifically Verstappen, to maintain a faster pace while running with plenty of fuel than their rivals.
Although qualifying seemed close on Friday, the race (Saturday, 9:55 a.m. ET; live stream on ESPN) It could still be a very different story. In practice on Thursday, Mercedes emerged as the fastest car on the timesheets, but when the teams simulated high-fuel race conditions for several laps, it was Red Bull that looked faster.
In 14 laps, Verstappen averaged a lap time of 1:36.7, while Leclerc could only manage 1:37.1 in 12 laps. George Russell, who qualified third for Mercedes on Friday, looked slightly quicker than the Ferrari with an average of 1:37.0 over 12 laps.
Those times do not take into account set-up changes made from practice and come with the usual caveats about fuel loads and engine settings, but Verstappen's lead supported the belief that Red Bull still has an advantage over the rest. .
“Let's wait until the race,” said Leclerc's teammate Carlos Sainz after qualifying fourth. “That's where they suddenly level up and manage to have a degradation that no one can have and a race pace that no one can have.”
Russell added: “I think we all knew it was going to be very close [in qualifying] among us, Ferrari, Aston Martin, McLaren and Checo [Sergio Pérez], and I think the gap in qualifying today was probably a little bit closer to Max than we expected. But I think race pace is what's important and we're probably hoping for a 0.5 second deficit; “That's what we thought after the tests, but we'll see tomorrow.”
Verstappen, who was sitting next to Russell at the press conference when the Mercedes driver made his race pace prediction, immediately showed an expression of genuine surprise at his rival's pessimism.
“Half a second ?!” -Verstappen asked.
“Is that too small?” Russell responded.
“No, I think it's too big,” Verstappen responded. “But if you say that now, tomorrow will be better.”
Perhaps following his own advice, the defending champion downplayed the ease with which his 55th career victory would come on Saturday, referencing his own reading of the race simulations in the test and practice sessions.
“We've done quite a few long runs to the point where you're almost bored,” he said. “But yes, I'm sure we have a good racing car. But I think also what you saw yesterday in the long runs is that the differences are small, and the attention to detail will be what will make the difference tomorrow too.”
The truth, as is often the case, probably lies somewhere in between, but there are enough unanswered questions heading into the first race to make things interesting.
