This is usually the time in the college basketball season when the word parity is frequently used.
As March approaches and a group of flawed teams try to improve before the postseason, it often seems as if there are a multitude of good teams at the top, but not necessarily one team that has broken away. While the numerous losses of top 10 teams in road games against unranked opponents this season have supported the arguments for parity, they do not tell the full story.
The history of current college basketball? A group of teams are chasing UConn and Purdue, two squads that have distanced themselves from the field. Those two are inching towards greatness.
So the question isn't which team will emerge in March, but can any team stop Purdue and UConn, or are they destined to battle each other in the national title game? The Boilermakers have Zach Edey, who will likely win a second straight Wooden Award, beating out Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Illinois, Alabama and Arizona. UConn hasn't lost a game since Dec. 20.
The Huskies and Boilermakers are not in that parity group. They have been the most dominant forces in the sport. Will anyone catch them?
All ESPN BET odds.
Saturday, 6 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
After the 75-63 home win over Ole Miss, John Calipari said his Kentucky team is ready for the postseason, citing all of its strengths: an elite offensive team (No. 7 in adjusted offensive efficiency in KenPom), a low turnover rate and NBA-level talent that can quickly change a game.
He is right. But NCAA tournament history suggests that a team that struggles defensively to this point (107th in adjusted defensive efficiency in KenPom) might not fare well in the postseason. Three of the Final Four teams a year ago were in the top 35 in defensive efficiency on Selection Sunday, the outlier being a Miami team that was ranked 132nd but with a top-15 offense.
Kentucky will have to beat talented teams to reach its goal. That includes Johni Broome (16.0 ppg, 8.6 RPG, 2.4 ppg) and the Tigers, who can match Kentucky's offensive production (18 games with 80 or more points) and haven't lost a game at home this season.
Medcalf's choice: Chestnut 88-83; Against the spread: Not available at time of publication
Saturday, 3 pm ET, Fox
With Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro on the court together, Marquette has produced 110.4 points per 100 possessions and held opponents to 94.7 points per 100 possessions, according to EvanMiya.com. Kolek, who earned Big East player of the year honors last season, is averaging 16.1 PPG, 7.4 APG, 1.7 SPG and 41% shooting from beyond the arc — that's even better than a year ago. Marquette hasn't lost since Jan. 10 in this battle between the top teams in the Big East standings.
But we've reached a point in the season, again, where UConn looks like a team that may not lose. Oh really. The Huskies (59.2% inside the arc) are on a 13-game winning streak, seven of those wins by double digits. Last year, the Huskies didn't hit their stride until mid-February. But they are ahead of schedule and better than that team in multiple metrics. And Tristen Newton (15.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 5.8 rpg) looks like an All-American.
Medcalf's choice: University of Connecticut 77-72; Against the spread: Not available at time of publication
Saturday, 4 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
At this point, the Big 12 title has become a fading dream for a Kansas team that has lost five of its last six road games and still has three more (including at Baylor and Houston) on its roster. of conferences. This is the same Kansas team hoping to secure a first-place berth in the NCAA tournament.
But all of this is secondary to the team's continued injury concerns. Kevin McCullar Jr. (19.5 points per game) has missed consecutive games due to a knee injury and Dajuan Harris Jr. is playing with an ankle injury he suffered last weekend against Baylor.
Will Kansas limp into the NCAA tournament? Will traffic problems continue in Norman? Maybe, maybe not.
Medcalf's choice: Kansas 72-68; Against the spread: Not available at time of publication
Saturday, noon ET, ESPN
When Florida Atlantic's top contributors returned for another season after a dazzling trip to the Final Four, college basketball had another fairy tale to follow. Turns out this season has been more of a turbulent comedy for Johnell Davis (18.6 ppg, 47% from beyond the arc) & Co., who claim a win over Arizona but losses to Bryant, Florida Gulf Coast, Charlotte and UAB.
South Florida, which was picked to finish ninth in the league's preseason poll, is the real story in the American Athletic Conference. First-year coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, who led Kennesaw State to the NCAA tournament last year, entered the week with the first-place team in the AAC, the team FAU has to catch in second place. Chris Youngblood (15.0 ppg) leads a team that has made 39% of its three-point attempts in the league.
Medcalf's choice: Florida Atlantic 77-71; Against the spread: Not available at time of publication
SEASON TOTALS
Medcalf's choices are clear: 30-21
Against the spread: 25-26
