The Premier League season is well underway, with the first matchday already underway, but beware: first impressions can be deceiving.
Aston Villa lost 5-1 to Newcastle United on the opening day of last season but finished fourth, earning them a surprise Champions League spot. With this in mind, it would be wise not to jump to conclusions based on the early goings of this season's campaign.
The temptation is to say that perhaps not much has changed over the summer. Last year's top four all won on their first outing.
Manchester City, champions for the past four seasons, looked as sharp as ever in beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Those of us wondering whether the looming 115-man financial hearing and doubts over Pep Guardiola's future might affect City were left short of ammunition by a very professional display. City remain favourites to win the league, and new signing Savinho looked a threatening option on the wing on Sunday.
Chelsea, with eight goalkeepers in their squad, can't seem to find a decent one. Robert Sanchez was largely to blame for City's second goal, scored by former Barca player Mateo Kovacic. Coach Enzo Maresca, in his first spell as a top-flight manager, has 43 players trying to adapt to his methodical approach. It may take time, judging by what we've seen.
Meanwhile, Liverpool's players are said to enjoy working under new manager Arne Slot. That was demonstrated in pre-season and in a dominant second half at Ipswich Town, where a superb piece of play led to Diogo Jota scoring an early goal of the season. Trent Alexander-Arnold's sublime pass deserves a special mention.
Slot also showed he can be ruthless, bringing on young defender Jarell Quansah at half-time because he couldn't cope with Liam Delap. Ibrahima Konaté solved that problem. Liverpool could get much closer to City and Arsenal this time around. The squad is deep and Slot's arrival seems to have freshened things up. There have been no signings yet, but a defensive midfielder is expected to arrive before the transfer window closes at the end of the month.
Arsenal had a trouble-free home win over Wolverhampton Wanderers. There is nothing new to learn there and no established striker has been signed yet, which is not a problem because they scored 91 goals last season with Kai Havertz up front. Buoyed by two narrow defeats in the title race, this could be the Gunners' year. Mikel Merino, from Euro winners Spain, is an expected signing from Real Sociedad to add to the midfield mix.
Manchester United's best piece of business so far is getting Bruno Fernandes to sign a new contract. Times are changing at Old Trafford under a new regime: last season, they might have lost the opening game against Fulham; this time, they found a way to win it.
Three new defenders have joined to give United a more solid image, helped by the return of the much-missed Lisandro Martinez. United can move into the top four, helped by a winning winger in Alejandro Garnacho and the driving of Fernandes. Casemiro also looks sharper and in better form.
After the extraordinary game at Leicester City, little has changed at Tottenham Hotspur. They continue to entertain but frustrate, managing to draw a game they could have been leading at least 6-0 had they not missed opportunities. Once Leicester equalised through the ageless Jamie Vardy, Spurs lost all their previous threat. They will be fun to watch, but they seem to lack character and leadership on the pitch.
Aston Villa have started with an excellent win at West Ham United. They have strengthened well, but the demands of a longer Champions League campaign may prevent them from repeating in the top four. A fitter Jacob Ramsey is a Villa player to watch, and could Ollie Watkins threaten Harry Kane's place in the England squad?
Newcastle did well to beat Southampton with ten men and Joelinton looked a real star, not least because of his goalscoring. A leaky defence was a big problem for Eddie Howe last season, but that could be sorted if his club can find the final million to sign Englishman Marc Guéhi from Crystal Palace this week. All previous offers have been rejected.
Who will be relegated? Last season it was the three clubs that were promoted: Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United. This year the trio of Ipswich, Leicester (who could be docked points) and Southampton are likely to face a tough battle.
Of those three, Saints can be pretty silky smooth, as they showed in the first half-hour against Newcastle. They may have the best chance of survival.
A surprise team? Possibly West Ham, despite the home defeat to Villa. The Hammers have made some big moves and could make it into the top six.
