Real Madrid plays Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup final on Sunday, giving the competition its climax the classic Clash, their new “Final Four” format was designed to showcase.
It is the first time since 2020, when the Super Cup was expanded and moved to Saudi Arabia, that the final will fulfill the tournament's original goal of pitting current LaLiga champions Barcelona against Copa del Rey winners from last season, Real Madrid.
It is also a repeat of last year's Super Cup final, when a one-sided match Classic The match ended with a 3-1 victory for Barça, setting them up for a triumphant second half of the season, which ended with the league title.
– Stream the Super Cup on ESPN+: Barça vs. Real Madrid (Sunday, 1:30 pm ET)
Real Madrid reached this final with a thrilling 5-3 extra-time victory over Atlético Madrid on Wednesday, before Barça qualified with a more subdued 2-0 victory over Osasuna a day later.
Now the two giants face each other on Sunday at Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh with the first trophy of the Spanish season at stake.
Why Real Madrid will win
Classics They are notoriously unpredictable. Form and circumstances are forgotten when the whistle blows. The result seems almost completely out of context.
What's more, both teams have players good enough to transform a game alone, making what happened before irrelevant. Just look at the recent meetings between these two.
Barcelona was completely and overwhelmingly dominant the last time the two teams met on October 28 in LaLiga. Until, with just over an hour of play, Jude Bellingham turned the game around in Montjuic with a stunning goal out of nowhere, and then a dramatic late winner, to give Madrid the three points.
remember the last Classic in a cup competition: the second leg of the Copa del Rey semi-finals at the Camp Nou in April 2023, which Madrid won at a canter, 4-0, just as Barça was preparing to lift the Copa del Rey title. league. Or their last Super Cup match in Riyadh, three months earlier, when Barça achieved a 3-1 victory.
In other words, either team is more than capable of winning on Sunday, so anything we say should be taken with a pinch of salt. Still, there are many reasons to Madridistas be optimistic.
Wednesday's enthralling 5-3 victory over Atlético, in which Real Madrid twice fought back from a goal down to finally emerge victorious in extra time, was further proof that this team doesn't know when it's defeated . Serial winners like Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Dani Carvajal could write the book on what it takes to lift trophies.
Madrid has not lost since September. This is a well-balanced team that looks dangerous in attack and, despite evidence to the contrary in the three goals conceded against Atleti, is generally solid in defence, conceding 11 goals in 19 LaLiga games this season.
Another relentless competitor, Antonio Rüdiger, is in the best moment of his time at Madrid. Carvajal was the MVP of the semifinal. Federico Valverde is having a quietly exceptional season in a more withdrawn midfield role. Then there's Bellingham's goal threat and big-play personality.
Madrid's squad is also reassuringly deep. On Wednesday, coach Carlo Ancelotti was able to call Kroos, Eduardo Camavinga, Brahim Díaz, Joselu, Dani Ceballos and Arda Güler from the bench to help the team get over the line in extra time. Diaz, in particular, has been in electric form in recent weeks, forcing his way into Ancelotti's plans and offering the team something different in attack.
The biggest doubt, and perhaps the team's Achilles heel, is in goal. Kepa Arrizabalaga started on Wednesday and looked unconvincing again, displaying a familiar lack of conviction as he stepped off his line to fail to deal with Atlético's third goal. The suspicion is that Ancelotti now prefers Andriy Lunin and has given Kepa minutes in this month's cup competitions to maintain his confidence.
If repeated, it's a decision that could cost the team, when finals are often decided by narrow margins. –Alex kirkland
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What does Barcelona need to change to beat Real Madrid?
Luis García reacts to Barcelona's 2-0 victory against Osasuna and anticipates the Spanish Super Cup final against Real Madrid.
Why Barcelona will win
Barcelona manager Xavi Hernández says last season's Super Cup success, along with victory over Madrid in the final, gave his players the confidence they needed to push forward and win LaLiga for the first time. since 2019. Expect a similar “click” in Riyadh on Sunday to silence the criticism that has accompanied Barça in recent months.
That criticism peaked in December, when a two-game winless streak left Barca seven points behind LaLiga leaders Madrid and Girona. The complaints go beyond the results and focus on the performance obtained even when winning. Before Thursday's 2-0 victory over Osasuna, Barça had not won a game by more than one goal since September 19, a streak of 20 games, and had not kept a clean sheet since December 3.
Once that streak is over, Barça, which has already won four consecutive victories in all competitions, will get closer to the Classic with some of his confidence restored.
Pedri's return after an injury helps. The midfielder played the last 30 minutes against Osasuna, coinciding with a rebound from Barça. Xavi stated that the Spanish international brings “clarity” to the team's football, while midfielder Frenkie de Jong highlighted that Barça is “more fluid” when he is on the pitch.
The temptation will be to start Pedri on Sunday, although some caution should also be taken given his recent injury history. He has only been able to start eight games this season.
However, Pedri's importance to the system may override any vigilance, and Xavi highlighted Barca's “DNA and methodology” as the main reasons to believe they can emerge victorious this weekend.
“We have to take the ball away from Madrid and our DNA must shine brighter than ever,” he said at a press conference on Thursday. “The example is last year's final. Madrid is in better shape than then, but we will try to dominate them and play face to face. It is the ideal time to show our best football.”
Those are qualities Xavi often preaches, but other attributes led to last year's LaLiga title, which was built on a solid defensive foundation. That has been lost this season, as Barça has already conceded more goals in 19 LaLiga games than in 38 last year, but the return to last season's back four meant a clean sheet against Osasuna. Given that full-back João Cancelo is a doubt to face Madrid, it is possible that they will stick to the recipe of Jules Koundé, Ronald Araújo, Andreas Christensen and Alejandro Balde.
A hamstring injury that Raphinha suffered against Osasuna may lead Xavi to also go back to choosing four midfielders, which was the tactic used in last season's final. Pedri could return alongside De Jong, Ilkay Gündogan and Sergi Roberto to provide control in the middle and avoid a start-to-finish match that would likely favor Madrid. He would also save João Felix and Lamine Yamal for the second half after both players made a big impact off the bench against Osasuna. — Sam marsden
Final Super Cup predictions
Kirkland: Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona. Bellingham…who else? — will score the winning goal and lift his first trophy with the club.
Marsden: Barcelona 3-1 Real Madrid. It's the old cliché, but the form really flies out the window in a Classic, with the least attractive team often prevailing. I think that Barça's need to get a big victory could lead them to surpass the goal on Sunday, just as happened last year.
